I genuinely don’t understand how you can make an argument that Trump isn’t a significant favorite right now.
-He leads the RCP national average- something that he never did in 2016 and 2020.
-He significantly outperformed his final RCP polling average in both 2016 and 2020.
-A 1-2% Biden popular vote win still likely means a Trump Electoral College win.
-Trump leads polling averages in Wisconsin, Michigan, and a large lead in Nevada. Trump could lose PA, MI, and WI, and still win the election if he wins Nevada and the Nebraska district.
There’s no way one could objectively argue Biden is the favorite right now based on the data. No argument.
This assumes polls aren't overestimating Trump like they did for his lackeys in 2022.
I don't buy the argument that polls will underestimate Trump when they are showing him doing better than he probably could in reality.
In 2018 polling didn't underestimate Republicans like 2016, but it happened again in 2020.
Agreed. Although it is possible polls may underestimate Biden now unlike 2020 because he is an incumbent and late-breakers go for the incumbent.