I think it’s very possible we are entering an era of anti incumbency . So instead of incumbency being something that’s considered and advantage , it becomes considered a disadvantage and btw this isn’t the first time this has happened.
From 1836-1896: No incumbent president outside Lincoln or Grant ended up being reelected . So this was clearly an anti incumbency era in American politics
More interesting is that, for all the noise made about the 22nd Amendment, only 13 of the 45 individual Presidents thusfar - George Washington Himself, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Andrew Johnson, Grant, Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama - have served eight consecutive years (and Cleveland famously served eight non-consecutive years).
