pieman
Rookie
Posts: 141
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« on: May 06, 2004, 11:53:52 AM » |
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Is it possible that Rasmussen is using a high number of DEMS and GOP and few IND? If you assume that Rasmussen is using a ratio of say 41 DEM/38 GOP/21 IND, and if each candidate is maintaining the same level of support from their base, the primary thing that is swinging the numbers from day to day is the IND vote. I would also assume that a large portion of the undecideds are coming out of the IND portion, further reducing the amount that could swing from one candidate to the other.
So taking the 21% IND, reducing it by 4% for undecideds leaves 17% available to swing. This means that the IND would have to swing more than 60-40 to one candidate or the other to get the topline results to be outside of the 43-48 range.
So, if it is true that Rassmussen is using a low number of IND, how can the results he gives really change unless one of the candidates starts to lose their base?
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