2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Del Tachi]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

[Del Tachi]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

[Del Tachi]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.   

[Del Tachi]

I mean, the biggest indication of whether the new LA-05 is winnable for Letlow will be what she decides to do once the map is handed down.  If she runs, then it'd mean she figures she has a pretty good chance - and I'd trust her intuition over the armchair pundits of Atlas! 

As other posters have pointed out, Letlow does have a record of appealing to Black voters.  She's run >10% ahead of Trump/other Republicans across her current district, which includes multiple majority-Black counties. 

Most posters ITT are assuming the existance of a "well-funded" Democrat challenger who will instantly consolidate Black support across the new district.  But there's also the possibility that multiple Baton Rouge Democrats get in and all cannibalize each other in the jungle primary, while Letlow easily advances to the runoff with her reputation intact. 

[Del Tachi]

Graves is screwed, which was of course Landry's preferred outcome.

[Del Tachi]

Hopefully SCOTUS reverses and we get the Legislature's revised map. However, Letlow shouldn't be completely discounted in a re-draw that makes the 5th a new VRA seat.  She has moderate crossover appeal, and could do quite well among Black voters in Northeast Louisiana (We'll see whether that is enough to counteract Fields' Baton Rouge-area base, but I would not be writing her obit quite yet.)