2012 Redistricting: States where the most is at stake?

[Skill and Chance]

Where do you think mapmakers will be making the most House seats change hands?  Here are some important races and possible implications for some of the larger states

1. NY: Compromise to Dem map if State Senate majority holds
2. FL: Rep map to Compromise if Sink becomes governor or the ballot referendum passes
3. CA: Compromise to Dem map if Brown wins, but gerrymandering attempt failed last time so IDK
4. TX: Rep map to Compromise if Bill White wins
5. IL: Dem map to Compromise if (when) Brady wins
6. GA: Compromise to Rep map if Deal wins
7. MI: Rep map to Compromise if State House stays D
8. WI: Dem map to Compromise if Walker wins
9. NC: Compromise to Dem map if State House and State Senate hold
10. VA: Rep map to Compromise depending on narrow D majority in the State Senate
11. MA: Compromise? to Dem map if Patrick wins (not that the map can get much more Democratic here anyway)
12. MD: Dem map to Compromise if Ehrlich wins
13. MN: Compromise to Dem map if Dayton wins
14. TN: Compromise to Rep map if R governor's candidate wins
15. CO: Rep map to Dem map if (when) Hickenlooper wins and State House stays D
16. LA: Dem map (or Compromise?) to Rep map depending on State Legislature

I think OH, IN, AZ, and PA are already Republican gerrymanders and are of course likely to stay that way.  Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

Where do you think mapmakers will be making the most House seats change hands?  Here are some important races and possible implications for some of the larger states

1. NY: Compromise to Dem map if State Senate majority holds
2. FL: Rep map to Compromise if Sink becomes governor or the ballot referendum passes
3. CA: Compromise to Dem map if Brown wins, but gerrymandering attempt failed last time so IDK
4. TX: Rep map to Compromise if Bill White wins
5. IL: Dem map to Compromise if (when) Brady wins
6. GA: Compromise to Rep map if Deal wins
7. MI: Rep map to Compromise if State House stays D
8. WI: Dem map to Compromise if Walker wins
9. NC: Compromise to Dem map if State House and State Senate hold
10. VA: Rep map to Compromise depending on narrow D majority in the State Senate
11. MA: Compromise? to Dem map if Patrick wins (not that the map can get much more Democratic here anyway)
12. MD: Dem map to Compromise if Ehrlich wins
13. MN: Compromise to Dem map if Dayton wins
14. TN: Compromise to Rep map if R governor's candidate wins
15. CO: Rep map to Dem map if (when) Hickenlooper wins and State House stays D
16. LA: Dem map (or Compromise?) to Rep map depending on State Legislature

I think OH, IN, AZ, and PA are already Republican gerrymanders and are of course likely to stay that way.  Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

Please Delete from the Polls Forum.  I have posted in the Congressional elections section, but I can't seem to make this topic go away.

[Skill and Chance]

Florida and Illinois are both hugely important.  They have both been horribly gerymandered and the out party could squeeze several seats out of a compromise map in 2012.

[Skill and Chance]

VA is also intriguing.  If it ends up being a compromise map, I can see Connolly getting a second safe D NOVA district which would make the neighboring districts Safe R instead of lean R.  In the SW, Perriello won't survive, but Boucher probably will.  Maybe Boucher could be given Charlottesville to make things easier for him and make VA-05 Safe R for Hurt?  I don't know if that would hold up in court, though.  If Nye survives, his Eastern Shore district can be made more Dem friendly by giving it a bit of territory from the African-American majority VA-3.    

[Skill and Chance]

Well it looks like I made quite a few errors here.  Sorry.  I  find it kind of fascinating that the Dems have more of an upside in redistricting, even after the 2010 elections.  A Sink win in Florida (she gets veto power over the US House districts but not the state legislative districts) would really shake things up down there to the tune of 5+ Dem gains. 

I wonder how much manipulation can be done in a two or three district state.  For example, could a GOP PVI district be legally carved out of NH or ME or a Dem PVI district in NE or AR if they really wanted to?

[Skill and Chance]

Also, it looks like the Dems will have 2/3rds in the CT legislature, so they don't need Malloy to gerrymander the state.