Would the GOP be favored to Hold the House if Obama Wins Re-election?

[Skill and Chance]

The two most recent examples are in stark opposition: 1996 (D+9) and 1948 (D+75)

What does everyone think?  Could the GOP gerrymander well enough to hold the House even under 2008 conditions?

[Skill and Chance]

I can't picture a reverse wave going on in 2012.... mind you in late 2008 I didn't exactly predict 2010, lol

lol Maybe the GOP will have wave #4 and become veto proof in the House while Obama wins.  Or the Dems hold the Senate while Obama loses.  Stranger things have happened.

[Skill and Chance]

You would need a net gain of 25 seats for the Dems, right?  When's the last time either party saw a net gain of 25 seats or more in a presidential election year?  1980?

But Democrats are coming from a pretty low floor this time. 

I can see quite a few districts that probably are naturally Democratic territory that will likely fall back to them in '12, but not sure how many.

Thinking probably NY-25, MN-08, NH-02, TX-27, PA-11, FL-22, IL-10, IL-17.  That's the easiest of the pickings. 

Getting to +15 with Obama winning the PV would be pretty easy.  It's those last 10 seats that complicate things.