MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.   

[Skill and Chance]

IMO the likelihood that Trone has something Ralph Northam-esque in his past is quite high now.  The money advantage isn't worth that risk.  Heck, GOP opposition researchers may have already found it and used it to convince Hogan to run.  Something is up here with the Dem establishment rallying so strongly around Alsobrooks at the last minute.  

There's literally no reason to think this

Anyway, for better or worse, Trone wins by a hair

He literally just used an old racially inappropriate word at a campaign event with zero hesitation.

[Skill and Chance]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter. 

[Skill and Chance]

With Alsobrooks and like Blunt Rochester becoming senators soon, the number of black women elected to the senate is about to double

Still unfortunate that one net gain doubles the number. It's a low bar.

A few years ago I did the numbers for the % of senators in history who were black women. Ar the time there were about 1,200 so after Election Day about .3% of American senators will have been black women

What is the % for senators elected after the VRA?