Surprise VP selection?

[ThePrezMex]

"The most important thing is that he picks somebody that he believes with all his heart would be a great president if he dropped dead, got shot, was in a plane crash, and the second most important thing is that he pick somebody that he likes and has confidence in, that he'll give a lot of responsibility to and form a real partnership with. If those two conditions are met, everything else is secondary." - Bill Clinton on Larry King last week.

If we assume that Kerry follows Clinton advice or thinks similarly then:
- He won't choose Edwards if it is true he really doesn't get along that well with him + Kerry may not believe he's ready to become President on the spot.
- He wouldn't choose Vilsack since he doesn't have national experience either.
- Of the three most frequently mentioned here, Gephardt clearly qualifies on both conditions.
- A surprise selection: Biden would qualify also on both conditions.

Now, I think those are not the only determinants. Again, exceptions to those are the cases of Kennedy choosing LBJ and Reagan choosing Bush. But on those two elections, the primaries had been bitterly contested and the respective parties were not fully united, so a healing operation was needed. That is not the case this year.
Choosing in base of which one can help deliver a state is clearly risky since most of the times the VP doesn't help (exception, LBJ again). If that is the criteria, then Bayh or Warner would be more daring choices, signaling more leadership, than going for a relatively safe state like Iowa.