Yes (of course). But even he be safe; 20% majorities don't usually vanish into thin air.
I'm sure that Michael Portillo once thought that too
I don't think Hallam will flip, but never say never.
It's too early to say what strategy the Lib Dems will pursue. I can't see them increasing their seat tally, they may be able to get a few scalps from Labour, but they are in significant danger in the south and south-east.
The problem with the swingometer, is that it reflects the political landscape of Blair and Howard/IDS. The Conservatives (and this is with my hack helmet firmly off) today are different. Some seats that should look good for them won't (unless we're talking about a big win) and some seats that should be out of play will be winnable.
Bear in mind that despite his late unpopularity, many people voted 'for Blair' and not for Labour. The middle class coalition he brought to Labour has effectively been lost. They haven't moved en masse to the Tories, but they will not be so willing to vote for Labour next time particularly if we face an economic downturn. Recent polling is more gloomy for Labour because the C2's and DE's have also shifted away from them. Remember that Thatcher got her strong wins in '83 and '87 because she took a substantial share of the 'working class' vote which she had to do because the Alliance were polling strongly in more 'conservative' demographic groups.
A simple analysis is that the voters she won over in 1979, which pushed her to victory were flaking off to the Alliance in 1983. She had to win them over but also extend her appeal
below that group in order to win. In 1987, the working class vote began to drift back to Labour and was broadly complete by 1992. However she regained most of her '79 devotees by 1987, again complete by 1992 so the Tories held onto their support (and their vote share) However Blair won that group hands down in 1997. He won them again, perhaps more strongly in 2001. In 2005 however they began to drift, mostly to the Lib Dems but Labour still won them. Now, at present Cameron is winning over them and he wants to win with them. These '79ers' are not specifically the same voter, but more of the same type of voter, however the core 79ers still turnout. Back then they were young babyboom couples starting families. They were working class in the sense that their parents were, but they were starting out in clerical and service work. By 1997 they were mortgage owners with teenagers and now in 2008 they are fairly financially secure, often now sprightly grandparents or with kids in their 20's. They are the same voters with shared experiences but now different concerns.
Cameron, in that regard is the 'heir to Blair.' He is constructing a victory by attempting to win over the voters that delivered Blair his three landslides. He is also appealing to those both 'above and below' in crude class terms. 'Above' he's after the fairly wealthy social liberals who are relatively uninterested in and unaffected by economic issues (though perhaps thats now changing) who were pretty much converted to the Lib Dems by Kennedy but can be won back and 'below' he's 'dog-whistling' to the same lower middle and working class voters Howard targeted on issues such as crime and Europe, but doing so differently hence his 'breakdown Britain' package.
