Glasgow East by-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

What rumours whould they be [qm]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any word on the rumours about John Smith in Vale of Glamorgan?

What rumours whould they be [qm]

That he may stand down, again due to 'ill health.' I don't know much about him so I can't comment.

Where's the rumour coming from [qm]. It's not in any of the sort of places where I'd expect it to be (unless it's very new).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour *should* hold Glasgow East. Then again, that's only a "should"

I can't quite remember how the Holyrood seats fit into this one, but I think it's mostly Glasgow Baillieston, which went...

Labour 53%, SNP 30%, Con 7%, LDem 6%, some random fundamentalist 3%

Some also in Shettleston I think; result there much the same, SNP slightly stronger.

That's not a prediction, but might be useful anyway.

Random odd fact; in Baillieston the Labour majority was quite a bit higher in 2007 than 1999. But in Shettleston, the reverse be true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We should hold this with a majority of this size.

Should, yes. But Scottish Labour's by-election record is appalling.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably pretty low; I doubt the CLP would want someone from outside Glasgow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By-election will be on the 24th of July.

How likely is McConnel to resign his seat as well now [qm].

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Glasgow Govan, which is certainly more comparable, tells a different story.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_Govan_by-election%2C_1988

And the other Glasgow Govan by-election in 1973. And the Hamilton by-election of 1967. And the Motherwell by-election of 1945.

But I'd be careful about drawing anything out of past by-election results other than the fact that Scottish Labour has a proven ability to lose in places where they've no business losing.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Says more about the sort of people who bet on election results than anything else.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could somebody explain why some (not necessarily on here) are talking about a possible SNP gain? Or did I misunderstand?

They are talking about it being possible because Scottish Labour's by-election record is awful and has been for at least sixty years (maybe even longer; can't quite remember).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some rather strange goings on recently. George Ryan (a local councillor and the overwhelming favourite for the Labour nod) pulled out of the selection process last night (in an incredibly subtle way; he just didn't turn up to the selection meeting), citing family reasons. Not quite as messy as the start to the Southall by-election last year, but messy all the same (may be worth noting that both East Glasgow and Southall are machinelands).

Random rumours about new candidates apparently include one of the local MSP's (Margaret Curran; who's also a would-be leader of Scottish Labour) and Steven Purcell, the leader of the City Council.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Curran has been formally selected as Labour candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've thought for a while that that sort of thing should be banned. Of course all the parties do it... "Party X... Save Our Schools!", "Party X... Save Our Local Hospital"... and so on. Some ("Local Conservatives", say) have the potential be outright deceptive. And there's all the fun in Wales you get with optional bilingual descriptions... the key word is optional.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Margaret Curran. Probably the best MSP Labour has and will make their job of winning both votes and holding up turnout easier.

I'm a little surprised they didn't go with her in the first place, considering that her majority in 2007 was actually significantly larger than 1999...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which is presumably the idea.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Heh; it's always easier to stereotype than do even a little bit of basic research, isn't it.

Welcome back, btw

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM poll: Lab 47, SNP 33, LDem 9, Con 7, Oth. 4

The record of constituency polls is poor, the record of by-election polls is worse and I don't see this as being an easy area to poll under any circumstances. So treat wi' a salt mine or three.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IMO you either trust a poll (and all its assumptions) or you don't. Messing with the figures to produce more pleasing results is something to be avoided.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

their campaign to unseat Gordon Brown in his own seat next time round.

Hubris, fantasy or delusion. Probably the first. If such an experiment were to be taken seriously it would also be an incredibly stupid waste of resources, especially as there are more than a few credible prospects of gains elsewhere. But reality always sets in sooner or later.

(would adding anything to that reduce my point I wonder. Probably. But even unpopular party leaders get an electoral boost at home these days. Of course the reverse is often true in "local" government elections, but then the nature of the publicity that council leaders get is quite different...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that wasn't the case it'd be a surprise...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble with by-elections is that you can never tell for sure who "high" or low turnout benefits until the votes are counted; turnout (and voting) dynamics are so different from normal elections. And of course a high postal vote at this time of year could easily mean a very low turnout on the day of the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re-reading the thread I noticed something I'd missed earlier...

The then Manchester Guardian wrote Camlachie's chief warning is ... that a government candidate cannot even rouse the slums

A line like that from a paper based in Manchester is really surprising. Labour only became the largest party in the slum districts of Manchester in the mid-to-late '30's IIRC. Of course the politics of the old slums (and the difference between them and more stable working class districts) is largely forgotten outside parts of academia these days, but surely not that early.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edit: they won't have counted much yet (unless they do things very differently in Scotland). Early stuff tends to be based on canvassing stuff from the day and postal vote samples and so on. This is sometimes accurate, sometimes miles out.

Early rumours and leaks should be treated with caution. But, yeah, the result will be awful no matter what.

I'm still waiting for what I was told during the week to be right.

What were that [qm]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The BBC and Guardian seem to be suggesting the SNP have won it.

So I've seen as well. Still chinese whispers at this stage though.

Awful, awful, awful though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No one is really taking any chances here. Both parties seem pretty mute and if it is that close, then I'd expect a recount.

If they stay basically mute then we won't have a good idea of what's gone on for a while yet. Unless one side opens up for some reason. If not, nowt but chinese whispers for far too long to stay sane.

Thus, this is like certain Assembly seats in the Welsh elections last year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Official turnout is 42.25% (!!!)

More evidence that we've returned to traditional by-election patterns. Interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if the seat is held, Labour should launch an inquiry into this fiasco; not because it's a one-off awful result in the depths of a Midtermland coloured by less than wonderful economic news, but because it isn't (though obviously economic gloom, the general unpopularity of the government, the popular Scottish government, etc are all factors. Not enough though). This, no matter who wins, easily fits into a long pattern of appalling by-election results in Scotland in areas that shouldn't even be close, let alone lost or tottering-on-the-brink. Something, somewhere is seriously wrong, has been for at least fourty years and unless the problem is spotted and fixed ghastly Scottish by-elections will remain ever-looming... and that will be as true when we are in opposition as when we are in government. What I cannot understand is why this hasn't been done already; it's not as though Labour is so unwilling to learn from its errors elsewhere in Britain. Then again, are people even aware that something is seriously wrong [qm].

Half a rant, half a ramble. Still. Hmm.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Deal with most of this later but...

Loose David Marshall, someone who maintained these links and the fall I think is harder.

Ah, the old informal, unofficial links in an area with very low levels of party membership and formal organisation. Certainly true that trouble results when they break down (thinking of certain areas in the '99 Assembly elections here).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LibDems may have come fifth, may have lost their deposit.