Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Rosemont is a very left wing neighbourhood of Montreal, it's entirely possible that QS could pick it up.

Speaking of which, has anyone seen any riding specific polls? I'm surprised there hasn't been any.

[Hatman 🍁]

I spoke too soon about riding specific polls. Apparently the Liberals are ahead in... Nicolet-Becancour

PLQ: 36.2
PQ: 29.9
CAQ: 21.9
QS: 7.7
ON: 3
PCQ: 1.3

Source: http://www.lecourriersud.com/section/2014-04-01/article-3672957/Nicolet-Becancour%3A-faible-avance-pour-le-liberal/1

[Hatman 🍁]

Another riding poll, this time in L'Assomption:

CAQ: 46
PQ: 34
PLQ: 13
QS: 6
Oth: 1

Source: http://www.fm93.com/regional/nouvelles/legault-largement-en-avance-dans-l-assomption-310316.html


This would explain why CAQ is having a strong result in the north shore region of Montreal. I thought Legault might be ahead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another in Papineau:

PLQ: 48%
PQ: 28%
CAQ: 13%
QS: 9%

[Hatman 🍁]

(2)  Hatman, when you say 'we' are going to release a QC poll, who is 'we'?

EKOS. Frank Graves has confirmed on Twitter that our poll will be released tomorrow afternoon.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Hatman.

Is it provincial only, or will there be a federal vote question?  I would love to see a cross-tab of federal vs. provincial support in Quebec.

It's part of a large federal poll, so it's possible we'll be publishing a cross of federal vote intention. (Federal numbers and a provincial Ontario numbers will be out next week according to Frank's Twitter).

I'm not working on the poll, so there probably won't be any regional breaks (unless they ask me tomorrow). But the provincial vs. federal vote intention will be interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

For now, the Ipsos poll where QS was at 17% on the island is just an outlier. Neither Leger nor Forum has shown anything there. Not discounting a Rosemont win, though. QS can win anywhere that PM won last year:

[Hatman 🍁]

My Week 5 projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-5.html

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS poll is out: PLQ 40, PQ 26, CAQ 21, QS 10. It's behind a firewall at ipolitics right now, but will be up on the EKOS site tonight.

I didn't work on any regional numbers today, so there probably wont be anything in the poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

We did go with regional breaks, but they're based on area code, so very easy to code for our programmer.

EKOS poll

PLQ: 40.0
PQ: 26.3
CAQ: 21.0
QS: 9.6
Oth: 3.1

450
PLQ: 30.3
PQ: 28.8
CAQ: 27.4
QS: 9.2
Oth: 4.4

514
PLQ: 47.5
PQ: 20.3
QS: 15.3
CAQ: 14.4

418
PLQ: 38.7
PQ: 29.1
CAQ: 23.2
QS: 5.7
Oth: 3.4

819
PLQ: 46.4
PQ: 26.6
CAQ: 17.2
QS: 8.2
Oth: 1.5

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec area code map

http://www.cnac.ca/area_code_maps/southern_quebec_area_code_map_highres.png

Here's my comparison between the EKOS poll and the 2012 results, as best as I can divide the ridings by area code.

Quebec
2012:  PQ 31.9, LIB 31.2, CAQ 27.1, QS 6.0, AUT 3.8
2014:  PQ 26.3, LIB 40.0, CAQ 21.0, QS 9.6, AUT 3.1

514 Montreal, excl. Laval
2012:  PQ 23.9, LIB 44.9, CAQ 15.4, QS 11.9, AUT 3.9
2014:  PQ 20.3, LIB 47.5, CAQ 14.4, QS 15.3, AUT 2.5

450 Couronne, incl. Laval
2012: PQ 36.5, LIB 23.8, CAQ 31.7, QS 4.5, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 28.8, LIB 30.3, CAQ 27.4, QS 9.2, AUT 4.4

819 West and Central Quebec
2012: PQ 32.9, LIB 32.5, CAQ 24.9, QS 5.0, AUT 4.7
2014: PQ 26.6, LIB 46.4, CAQ 17.2, QS 8.2, AUT 1.5

418 Saguenay and Eastern Quebec
2012: PQ 31.0, LIB 30.2, CAQ 31.1, QS 4.2, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 29.1, LIB 38.7, CAQ 23.2, QS 5.7, AUT 3.4

Which ridings did you use for 418 and 819?

CROP should be out soon, and that will be the final poll. Much like Joe Clark, I expect Marois will be a blip on the historical radar screen. She did achieve her lifelong goal of being our first female premier. Shortest term of any elected premier since Parizeau.

Lately, there've been poll releases the night before elections, so there may be more to come.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks!

Your 450 matches what I had previously figured out (see my Week 3 projection), so that's good.

[Hatman 🍁]

This of course is subject to change if there are any last minute polls.

Will there be another CROP or Forum poll tonight or is it too late for that?

It's possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to Twitter, there will be a Forum poll released tonight. Don't know about CROP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are predictions -- I doubt I'll have time to take more than a cursory look at the Forum poll, so probably the final predictions:

Independent (Fatima Houda-Pepin) 1 (La Piniere)

Not happening.

[Hatman 🍁]

Will it be a massacre?

[Hatman 🍁]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

We expect results from your polling division / precinct

[Hatman 🍁]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

We expect results from your polling division / precinct

I leave as soon voting is finished, so, I won't/can't be there for counting.
I don't work with a voting box, but rather as a member of the identity verification panel, for people needing special identification (scrutineers can only accepy driving licence/health card/Native status certificate/mititary card/passport) and people taking an oath and having someone vouch for them.

In short, option 2 and 3 of the federal elections (http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e), except than 2 documents having together name, address and birth date is also acceptable and than the voucher doesn't need to be in the same polling division and can vouch for as much family members he wants (+ 1 person outside of his family).

All those people come to us. We are 3, and we take decisions at the majority.

What will you be doing if a maudit anglais tries to vote?

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of predictions, I'll add my two cents:

Seats:
PLQ: 66
PQ: 42
CAQ: 15
QS: 2

Wow, very similar to mine. Except I have the Liberals and 65 and PQ at 43.

[Hatman 🍁]

You know what they say about great minds . . .

It's just a coincidence this time, though. Or perhaps an unconscious repetition, as I read your blog earlier but wasn't thinking about it when I sat down to decide what I thought would happen.

My thinking was that a PLQ majority was more likely than a minority, that the CAQ would do no better than they did last time but not much worse, and that QS and the PQ would turn out their vote just as efficiently as one would expect.

We are way off in terms of popular vote, though.

Here is my final projection blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/quebec-2014-election-final-seat.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Landslide, eh?

Consider this.

In 2008, the polling average for the last week showed the Liberals with a 12 point lead. The Liberals ended up winning by 7 points.

Fast forward to 2014, the polling average gives the Liberals a similar 13 point lead. If we see a similar turnout pattern (and why not, both elections were held right after short lived minority governments with the Liberals expected to easily win), then we could end up with a smaller Liberal win.

I've factored in this theory into my projection which "only" shows the Liberals winning by 9%.

[Hatman 🍁]

And quite a projection it is! You've got PKP going down to an 8-point defeat. From your mouth to their ears!

I'm not sure if I'd rather have him getting humiliated but going back to running Quebecor or having the embarrassment of being in opposition.

Anyways, it's impossible to know for sure whether he will get a star candidate boost or get a nefarious candidate dip.  My speculation is it's the latter.

[Hatman 🍁]

St. Jerome is not a seat that lends itself well to traditional swing analysis. It is actually currently a CAQ held seat, but Jacques Duchesneau the star candidate who won it narrowly for CAQ in 2012 is not running again and the new CAQ candidate is apparently low profile and running a very weak local campaign...the conventional wisdom is that if PKP loses it will be to the Liberal who got a lot of publicity as a results of having lead a union local at a Quebecor newspaper where PKP imposed one of his notorious lock-outs!

A fair point, DL. I had the riding going PQ all the way up to my final projection, so I didn't have the time to reflect up on the late CAQ surge and the peculiarities in my model that would pop up as a result. Duscheneau's candidacy was definitely strong one, as he increased the ADQ/CAQ vote 9 pts more than the provincial average. If you take this away from CAQ and give some the PQ, my model would have the PQ winning it. The race is for 2nd place. Even though the CAQ candidate is not strong, that doesn't matter in Quebec. Remember the orange wave?

St. Jerome is somewhat removed from Montreal, but it's in the same CMA as Montreal, and so it's grouped in with the Montreal region in a lot of surveys. The north shore is swinging heavily to the CAQ, so St-Jerome got swept up in my model as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

harrumph

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey Max, you said Liberals had no shot at Ungava