Okay an alternative to the Obama landslides. Let's imagine the economy really tanks. Middle East unrest continues throughout this year, uprisings in some of the oil rich monarchies leads to seriously high gas prices. The region is on the brink of war, though players and their motives are not yet clear. Libya drags on into a long bloody stalemate which de facto partitions the country. The US officially goes back into recession by the first quarter of 2012. Ron Paul sweeps the primaries because of his anti-interventionist stance and his message that America needs to focus inward to solve its problems. Trump can't win social conservatives no matter how much he panders and goes down like Giuliani. He later announces a quixotic independent campaign that is more a source of late night comedy material than anything serious.
By October the world is experiencing a major escalation in violence in the Middle East and further commodities shocks. The dollar has further weakened to an all time low, other major currencies are looking risky, gold is nearly $2000 an ounce. Two competing narratives dominate the political conversation. Ron Paul is calling for national renewal, he heavily displays his socially conservative positions, but tries to appeal to the anti-war left and the general mood of national anger and despair. Obama runs on the pragmatic message that only he can offer the calm, cool leadership American needs in this time of crisis. He points to Ron Paul's radical positions on a whole host of issues.
Ultimately enthusiasm for Obama is extremely low, he has a 35% approval rating. Still his surrogates, even hawkish Republicans fight for him as the best possible option in the face of national retreat. The issue of support for Israel in what looks to be a war with Iran hurts Paul, though it only becomes a primary concern after he had already clinched the nomination. Ultimately, he wins over most reluctant evangelicals who see no credible alternative. Paul chooses Gov. Mitch Daniels as his running mate; a move that helps him appear more moderate. Considering Paul's advanced age, many who had hoped Daniels would run in the primaries are glad to vote for the ticket.
On election night, Obama/Biden looses in an a landslide. Negative approval ratings combined with the sharply worsening economy causes independents to break for Paul/Daniels despite their general distrust and apprehension. All and all, it goes down as one of the strangest elections of the early 21st Century.
note: I didn't bother to shade the states or hazard a guess at national PV. It should be fairly obvious from the map.
