Recall-a-palooza goes Michigan!

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/08/mirs_poll_more_than_60_percent.html

Rep. Paul Scott (R-Grand Blanc) is facing a tough battle in November, with 61 percent of voters in his district saying they'd vote to recall him in a new poll.
That's according to a new poll commissioned by MIRS and conducted by Practical Political Consulting of East Lansing.

"In a word, Paul Scott is in trouble," said pollster Mark Grebner.

Scott, the only state lawmaker to face a recall election in November, won his 2010 re-election by 19 points. But in a rematch against his relatively unknown Democratic challenger, Art Reyes, Scott would lose by 15 points, according to the poll.

As head of the House Education Committee, Scott has led the charge on measures limiting teacher's collective bargaining rights, reforming teacher tenure and limiting teachers' right to regularly scheduled raises. That's led the Michigan Education Association, the state's largest teachers union, to help organize Scott's recall.

The poll of 203 registered voters in the 51st House District has a 7-percent margin of error. Full results are in MIRS.

[Marston]

Paul Scott is a jerk.

Now that I've gotten my little jab in, I must say these polling results somewhat surprise me. Scott was first elected in 2008. Now, if he could be elected during the Obama wave that hit Gennesee Co. particularly hard, I would wager that he'd probably have a decent chance of surviving a recall. The teacher tenure reforms weren't that controversial and certainly were watered down compared to what other states have enacted. Heck, even about a dozen Democrats in the House crossed over to vote for it.

The polls high margin of error raises some eyebrows, however. MIRS is a respected reporting outfit but I'm not sure how good their polling happens to be...

If Scott's legal challenges don't succeed and we do indeed get a recall election in November, it'll be interesting to analyze the results. Fenton and Grand Blanc do tend to be pretty red despite residing in Gennesee Co.

[Marston]

Ah, a little more research indicates that Mark Grebner did the polling for MIRS. He has a mixed record. Some times he has been spot on. Other times, not so much.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Let's go all the way to Rick Snyder.

[tmthforu94]

Let's go all the way to Rick SSnyder.

Who's Rick SSnyder?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Typo. Fixed.

[Keystone Phil]

Typo. Fixed.

Given the dangerous rhetoric from your party these days, you mean to tell me you didn't purpose put SS to mean...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Typo. Fixed.

Given the dangerous rhetoric from your party these days, you mean to tell me you didn't purpose put SS to mean...

Dammit, should have thought of that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Typo. Fixed.

Given the dangerous rhetoric from your party these days,

Comedy hour!

[Marston]

These recalls in Michigan have been cropping up rather organically. It's easy to tell that there is little to no coordination going on between the various recall campaigns. Scott is the exception. The MEA (Michigan Educational Association) has thrown about $30,000 behind this recall, thus far. It'll be interesting to see if this poll entices them to finance more of these recalls, as well.

Republican's are retaliating, though. They're trying to get recalls on the ballot against about six State House Democrats for opposing elimination of the Michigan Business Tax. It's notable that the recall language is the same for each of these attempts. That implies some level of coordination on their part.   

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering whats going on with Snyder's recall.  The recall Snyder website didn't have many details.  I'm wondering how many signatures they've gotten so far, and what the deadlines are.

[Marston]

Yeah, so the Recall Rick people didn't get enough signatures to make the ballot (again). I think they've given up for good. Quite sad.

On the other hand, after a protracted legal battle that went all the way up to the MI Supreme Court, it looks like we will be getting one notable recall election with Paul Scott!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.freep.com/article/20111021/NEWS06/110210426/Recall-High-court-puts-state-Rep-Paul-Scott-back-Nov-8-ballot

[RRB]

Recalls againt Repubicans are difficult.  Recalls against Democrats are easier because big donors with big money organize big efforts.  Lots of money = lots of signatures.  End of story.  I signed the Snyder recall.  The breaks on my car couldn't work fast enough as I whirled my car into a parking lot where a man in a wheel chair was taking signatures.  Get my point.  If it were a Democrat on the chopping block, the Koch brothers would have had an army of well dressed volunteers passing out glossy literature.

[Marston]

11% in so far.

Yes - 52%
No - 48%

[Marston]

31% in now. Still 52-48 in favor of recall.

[Marston]

37% in.

Yes - 51%
No - 49%

http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2011/11/the_latest_genesee_county_elec.html

STATE REP RECALL, 51ST DIST-PAUL SCOTT

VOTE FOR 1

(WITH 18 OF 35 PRECINCTS COUNTED 51.43%)

YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,210 50.15

NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,167 49.85

Total . . . . . . . . . 14,377

I'm biting my nails. This d-bag needs to go down!

[Marston]

Gah!

STATE REP RECALL, 51ST DIST-PAUL SCOTT

VOTE FOR 1

(WITH 29 OF 35 PRECINCTS COUNTED 82.86%)

YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,361 49.21

NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,693 50.79

Total . . . . . . . . . 21,054

[Marston]

The results have stalled. at 83%...

[Marston]

STATE REP RECALL, 51ST DIST-PAUL SCOTT

VOTE FOR 1

(WITH 30 OF 35 PRECINCTS COUNTED 85.71%)

YES . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,851 49.61

NO. . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,022 50.39

Total . . . . . . . . . 21,873

SO. CLOSE.

[Marston]

Rep. Paul Scott has been recalled, 12,358 (50.5%) to 12,126 (49.5%), a 232 vote margin!!!!!!!

Huzzah!