🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

Arguably a 5th zone might be Oakwood Village in the NW--more "multiethnic" than Hillcrest-Humewood (including Little Jamaica and perhaps some Corso Italia-zone "edge condition") and more of a piece with the adjoining parts of Davenport & Eglinton-Lawrence (and further W, York South-Weston).  Which also makes it the most "Ford Nation" part of the riding (though what that means for Poilievre is TBD--but the Liberalism here has always been more of the "blue-collar populist" variety, and thus vulnerable to leaking in both directions in case the LPC is fatally framed as "elitist")

For what it's worth, ONDP did win the Oakwood Village polls in 2018 and 2022, and PCs weren't even particularly competitive in those polls in 2022, despite having very strong showings in other Ford Nation type areas (like neighbouring York South-Weston, where Doug's nephew was able to unseat the incumbent NDP MPP). There's been a fair bit of gentrification in Oakwood Village, to the point that I don't think it's core Ford nation suburbia anymore, but a hybrid of that and the "young and progressive" demographic you see closer to St. Clair.

[adma]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

Arguably a 5th zone might be Oakwood Village in the NW--more "multiethnic" than Hillcrest-Humewood (including Little Jamaica and perhaps some Corso Italia-zone "edge condition") and more of a piece with the adjoining parts of Davenport & Eglinton-Lawrence (and further W, York South-Weston).  Which also makes it the most "Ford Nation" part of the riding (though what that means for Poilievre is TBD--but the Liberalism here has always been more of the "blue-collar populist" variety, and thus vulnerable to leaking in both directions in case the LPC is fatally framed as "elitist")

For what it's worth, ONDP did win the Oakwood Village polls in 2018 and 2022, and PCs weren't even particularly competitive in those polls in 2022, despite having very strong showings in other Ford Nation type areas (like neighbouring York South-Weston, where Doug's nephew was able to unseat the incumbent NDP MPP). There's been a fair bit of gentrification in Oakwood Village, to the point that I don't think it's core Ford nation suburbia anymore, but a hybrid of that and the "young and progressive" demographic you see closer to St. Clair.

However, if we look at 2021 *federally*, Oakwood Village was one of the few spots in the riding where Liberal support was actually *stable* from 2019 (their share went down 5 points riding-wide)--and it thereby became the new "best Lib zone" (it had previously been the Yonge/Eg/Davisville area in the E).  So a kind of "Dzerowicz-bleed ethno-populism" buoyed the party there--one might call it "Ford Liberalism", as opposed to, I guess, "Laurentian Liberalism"; and it was a combination of promiscuous-progressivism and promiscuous-populism that defaulted the vote to the NDP provincially.  But when it comes to the special nature of "Ford Liberalism", take note that in '18 provincially, the Tories finished *ahead* of the Liberals at large in Oakwood Village--the SW poll had them 30% to the Libs' 21%, the SE & N polls both had them only a point behind the Libs, and all 3 had the Tories *above* the riding par (of course, the NDP was ahead in all 3).  (Maybe reflecting that slow path to gentrification as well as a weaker Tory campaign, '22 provincially wasn't so "Con-weighted"--all 3 polls were NDP-Lib-Tory, SW 38-28-25, SE 42-30-20, N 36-31-25.  But still, all 3 were Lib subpar, and 2 out of 3 remained above Tory par--and the odd poll out in the SE was the one that felt the most "gentrification reverb" from out Humewood way.)

[DL]

Shannon Philips the Alberta NDP former cabinet minister and current MLA for Lethbridge West is resigning her seat on July 1. Could be an opportunity for Naheed Nenshi to get a seat in a byelection

[adma]

Carolyn Parrish wins the Mississauga Mayoral byelection (and Natalie Hart wins in Ward 5)
Tedjo/Damerla/Dasko was the order of the other 3 major players.

https://mississaugavotes.ca/by-election-2024/by-election-results/

Parrish 31.06
Tedjo 25.00
Damerla 19.37
Dasko 16.00

[Hatman 🍁]

Ward 5 was a race between Hart and Danny Singh. Hart was Crombie's candidate and Singh was Parrish. Apparently Parrish and Crombie don't like each other very much. Hart won with 29.1% of the vote, and Singh won 23.5%

[DL]

Ward 5 was a race between Hart and Danny Singh. Hart was Crombie's candidate and Singh was Parrish. Apparently Parrish and Crombie don't like each other very much. Hart won with 29.1% of the vote, and Singh won 23.5%

Didn’t Crombie beat Parrish when she was first elected mayor largely thanks to a last minute endorsement by Hazel Mcallion