https://twitter.com/LukeWarfordTX/status/1798738750845157599
I love how this TX-Dem affiliated group made a Vox/ted-ed style video about how to flip TX. For us who are already election experts, it doesn't say much we don't already known (TX Dems are heavily outspent, TX has tons of non-voters, favorable growth to Dems in suburbs, ect), but the comparisons they make to AZ and GA are interesting - in many ways TX is almost like a merger of the 2 states being both southeastern and southwestern characteristics demographically and culturally.
I think the money point really rings true - for decades now Democrats haven't really made any serious investments in TX so the ROI for just investing a little would probably be pretty substantial. We saw this in AZ; as soon as it became treated as a real swing state turnout on both sides (especially Dems) skyrocketed, so much so that in 2022 Sen more votes were cast than in 2016 Pres.
The thing is that while Georgia and Arizona certainly ain’t cheap, seriously investing in Texas for the long haul (as opposed to just specific races) would be an absolute money pit. Unless there is a real path to statewide victory in non-freak circumstances there within the decade (and I don’t think there is right now for most races), it’s just not worth it.
Democrats are far better off focusing on
1) Flipping the State House before the next round of redistricting (certainly an uphill climb, but not nearly to the extent you’d think; if you’re wondering where national money would help the most, this is where);
2) State Supreme Court Races - Solid recruits generally outperform the baseline by quite a bit here;
3) The occasional genuinely competitive house race (specifically, defending Vincente González and Cueller’s seat once he’s out of office, credible primary loss insurance candidates in Tony Gonzales’ seat, and recruiting strong candidates to run against De La Cruz instead of ceding the seat).
4) Freak situations like 2018 Senate and TX AG are fine, but don’t waste money on fool’s gold. Normally Cruz in 2022 would be a great example where the goal should just be to make Republicans waste money, but we don’t have any other offensive opportunities this cycle and IIRC the DSCC has more money than it knows what to do with, so I don’t mind as much as I normally would if they make a play here (just not at the expense of playing defense in other states).
