European Parliament elections, June 2024

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It looks increasingly likely both of the ego liberal lists in Italy will not pass the threshold. Azione is already confirmed to be below 4%.

Yeah, good riddance. These clowns need to learn their place - as feckless PD satellites.

At about 40% of stations:

FdI - 28.64
Lega - 8.80
FI - 8.7

PD - 25.63
AVS - 6.85

M5S - 9.61

SUE - 3.55
Azione - 3.23

I'm not an expert in Italian politics or anything, but I saw a ton of billboards for M5S and FI relative to their performance when I was there over the last couple weeks.  And, I traveled through lots of different regions of Italy.  Obviously, lots of Meloni/FdI ones too.

It's interesting to look and see which areas I went to voted for which party.  It's not always what American me would expect based on "political vibes" at all either.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1799949950475715049

Generally a big loser, alongside Greens and not being mentioned enough is liberals. I think it's safe to say they are for lots of people just the worst of the left and right combined

For large portion, economically anti-working class and for another portion too culturally monopolitian/liberal. That's why they won't appeal to left and right, and are alongside Greens that basically also have that same impression in a lot of countries lose alongside them, as more populist parties tend to make gains.

One reason they still do better than they should is because Eastern Europe often doesn't have a left wing alternative (that is pro-EU, anti-Putin let's face it), and because the left is a more toxic brand due to the USSR association, and has a more social conservative touch due to the ancestral ties (and also orthodox religion, in case of like KKE). Otherwise they'd even do worse since for a lot of left leaning, culturally liberal people, this makes the liberals the only credible alternative to a far right threat here, like Hungary, Slovakia, etc.

It's also mostly in straight liberal vs far right match ups that the far right or populist tends to win. Pattern we've seen a lot today, esp. in France.

It's much easier for a folksier far right party to convince a working class person for joining/voting them if the opposition is Liberals as opposed to socialists, as the far right can easily claim to be economically populist / third way politics like in many nations they do in Europe, eventually outrunning an economically conservative liberal party on this.

Macron has been eating into the left, and - with his call for snap election - probably wants to destroy the left even more, but eventually it ends up helping Le Pen especially long term when there's no left wing alternative.

[Kamala's side hoe]

SF largest party in Denmark.

BBC link

Posted at 16:46
Surprise surge of the Green Left in Denmark

Adrienne Murray
Reporting from Copenhagen

With more than 99% of the votes tallied here in Denmark, SF, known in English as the Green Left, are tonight’s biggest winners.

To jubilant cheers, the party has grabbed three seats in the European Parliament - gaining one, and having secured 17.4% of the votes, it delivered the evening’s biggest surprise, becoming Denmark’s largest party in the EU.

Political commentators have described the result as “disastrous” for the Prime Minister’s Social Democrats.

Although it has retained three seats, its popularity has slipped by around six points to 15.6%.

Both on the left, the two parties were once allies, but SF is now seen as the main challenger in opposition, since the Social Democrats formed a government with the right-of-centre Liberals and centrist Moderates two years ago and has seen its popularity slip.

In a Facebook post, Denmark's PM Mette Frederiksen said she was “happy” with the three seats and wrote, “SF is the party that is politically closest to the Social Democrats. And I want to congratulate them.”

[Sorenroy]

I've been trying to follow these elections - I really have - but between the language gap and the different coalitions and groups, I'm struggling to actually understand what's happening on an EU-wide level. News commentary and discussion here seems to indicate a substantial shift rightward, but the preliminary results show the three conservative groups (EEP, ECR, and ID) gaining only 21 seats in a body of 720. With the additional 15 seats added overall, that's just an increase of 2%, from 42% to 44%.

I assume there's something in the unaligned/unrecognized and non-party results that explains the rest of the story - and I know that even slight changes can change the ruling coalition - but I'm not finding it clearly explained in any of the news around the election. Can someone here help me out? Why are these results seen as such a rightward shift from 2019?

[lfromnj]

I've been trying to follow these elections - I really have - but between the language gap and the different coalitions and groups, I'm struggling to actually understand what's happening on an EU-wide level. News commentary and discussion here seems to indicate a substantial shift rightward, but the preliminary results show the three conservative groups (EEP, ECR, and ID) gaining only 21 seats in a body of 720. With the additional 15 seats added overall, that's just an increase of 2%, from 42% to 44%.

I assume there's something in the unaligned/unrecognized and non-party results that explains the rest of the story - and I know that even slight changes can change the ruling coalition - but I'm not finding it clearly explained in any of the news around the election. Can someone here help me out? Why are these results seen as such a rightward shift from 2019?

I assume AFD was counted last time and it isn't counted this time around.  They had 11 seats last time and it seems more like 17 seats this time. Add that to that RW bloc and you go from a 21 seat gain of which 11 are AFD loss seats to a 38 seat gain.

Obviously it doesn't matter because EU parliaments are just effectively grand coalitions between EPP.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Also ageing means for progressive measures, we're often in the minority. And not all immigrants are that progressive either. The Islam religion is quite a social conservative religion too, and it's one of the things they abandon the left for (or could).

I think the main issue that could fix a lot of the issues that create the Muslim splinter parties like Nyans etc are the ghettoization of some of these communities which leads to isolation and reinforcement of closed minded views. Part of the issue is of course some people wanting immigrants in their home as cleaners but not wanting them in their nice gated communities. Not the case everywhere of course but I think it’s part of the issue in the US. (And here it’s beyond religious minorities, or even race altogether, and just political views, I’ve been to some suburbs in the south (usually developments which my family have been calling “squidsvilles” for years because they’re like that episode of SpongeBob) that give the feeling that if you said you didn’t like Trump, they’d do everything possible to force you to move away) The only sense of community is that of people like yourself which engenders closed minded thinking since you don’t often meet people who are unlike you.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Also ageing means for progressive measures, we're often in the minority. And not all immigrants are that progressive either. The Islam religion is quite a social conservative religion too, and it's one of the things they abandon the left for (or could).

I think the main issue that could fix a lot of the issues that create the Muslim splinter parties like Nyans etc are the ghettoization of some of these communities which leads to isolation and reinforcement of closed minded views. Part of the issue is of course some people wanting immigrants in their home as cleaners but not wanting them in their nice gated communities. Not the case everywhere of course but I think it’s part of the issue in the US. (And here it’s beyond religious minorities, or even race altogether, and just political views, I’ve been to some suburbs in the south (usually developments which my family have been calling “squidsvilles” for years because they’re like that episode of SpongeBob) that give the feeling that if you said you didn’t like Trump, they’d do everything possible to force you to move away) The only sense of community is that of people like yourself which engenders closed minded thinking since you don’t often meet people who are unlike you.

Partial agree, but this isn't really a solution, it's more of an observation.

Like when watching the Belgian elections, i seriously considered moving away in the future since i feel i don't belong where I live here and need to live in a more urban area. And well there are a million people who also consider moving to Canada or so if Trump gets elected again, or go live in New York if they're somewhat progressive minded.

In reality, the ghettoization you describe is also occuring in "the nice traditional more rural communities" that also tend to live in isolation around their community that reinforce their view. And the result is a sharper and sharper urban vs rural gap, and polarization along those lines. And that's what we are seeing in almost every place in the world, especially as economic conditions also sharply differ along those lines with that difference also increasing. You basically are creating two parallel worlds.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I've been trying to follow these elections - I really have - but between the language gap and the different coalitions and groups, I'm struggling to actually understand what's happening on an EU-wide level. News commentary and discussion here seems to indicate a substantial shift rightward, but the preliminary results show the three conservative groups (EEP, ECR, and ID) gaining only 21 seats in a body of 720. With the additional 15 seats added overall, that's just an increase of 2%, from 42% to 44%.

I assume there's something in the unaligned/unrecognized and non-party results that explains the rest of the story - and I know that even slight changes can change the ruling coalition - but I'm not finding it clearly explained in any of the news around the election. Can someone here help me out? Why are these results seen as such a rightward shift from 2019?

My best attempt at placing the "unaffiliated" parties:

AfD: 16 seats, right populist
Fidesz: 10 seats, right populist
M5S: 9 seats, big tent populist
BSW: 6 seats, left populist
Smer: 5 seats, left populist
AUR: 4 seats, right populist
V: 3 seats, right populist
NN: 3 seats, libertarian/right populist
SALF: 3 seats, right/conspiratorial/personalist populist
DP: 2 seats, satire party (but their actual policies are basically left populist like BSW)
KKE: 2 seats, Marxist-Leninist (but I'm counting it as left populist)
Republika: 2 seats, right populist
Fidias: 1 seat, big tent populist
SD-SM: 1 seat, right populist
NIKI: 1 seat, right populist
PE: 1 seat, right (or left? or big tent? not totally sure on this one) populist
MH: 1 seat, right populist
McNamara: 1 seat, center left/left populist
LPV: 1 seat, right populist
IP: 1 seat, center left
HLAS: 1 seat, left populist
Resni.ca: 1 seat, right/conspiratorial populist
JxC: 1 seat, Catalan separatist

So by my count that's 13 right populist parties with 47 seats, 5 left populist parties with 16 seats, 2 big tent populist parties with 10 seats, 2 center left parties with 2 seats and JxC with 1 seat.

Also, for some reason EuropeElects thinks AfD will form a group with V, SALF, KKP, Republika, NIKI, RN and Resni.ca while BSW and M5S will create a "conservative left" bloc with McNamara, HLAS, PE and JxC (), does anyone know if this based on actual statements or is it just speculation?

EDIT: though their "proposed groups" result is pretty illustrative of the results even if they don't shake out this way:

1. EPP, 198 seats
2. "Radical right ECR-ID group": 140 seats
3. S&D: 137 seats
4. Renew: 85 seats
5. Green/EFA: 52 seats
6. Left: 39 seats
7. "Far right AfD group": 29 seats
8. NI: 20 seats
9. "Conservative-left BSW-M5S group": 19 seats

I think its fair to say that this election is a victory for the European right even if the results vary wildly depending on location

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Good lord.

94% of municipalities won by far right.

Also more proof of the urban vs rural gap. Paris white blob and other than that just a few cities, but otherwise it's all RN.