Obama spends $100 million on Bain ads, falls behind in polls

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The hackishness is strong in this thread board.

Fixed.

[pepper11]

Looks like the $100 mil didn't exactly work. Though the 12 people in the Priorities USA focus group would probably disagree with their assessment.

Per Galliup...

"By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years. …

The Democratic attacks on Romney seem to have had limited effect on voters' assessments of him. In February, 53% said the former Massachusetts governor had the personality and leadership qualities a president should have; now 54% do. Then, 42% said they agreed with Romney on the issues that mattered most to them; now 45% do."

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Looks like the $100 mil didn't exactly work. Though the 12 people in the Priorities USA focus group would probably disagree with their assessment.

Per Galliup...

"By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years. …

The Democratic attacks on Romney seem to have had limited effect on voters' assessments of him. In February, 53% said the former Massachusetts governor had the personality and leadership qualities a president should have; now 54% do. Then, 42% said they agreed with Romney on the issues that mattered most to them; now 45% do."

You do realize that was a national poll. The Bain Attacks were focused in about 8 swing states. You can't poll on attack ads that 90 percent of the country aren't witnessing.

[Kushahontas]

The hackishness is strong in this thread.

[pepper11]

Looks like the $100 mil didn't exactly work. Though the 12 people in the Priorities USA focus group would probably disagree with their assessment.

Per Gallup...

"By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years. …

The Democratic attacks on Romney seem to have had limited effect on voters' assessments of him. In February, 53% said the former Massachusetts governor had the personality and leadership qualities a president should have; now 54% do. Then, 42% said they agreed with Romney on the issues that mattered most to them; now 45% do."

You do realize that was a national poll. The Bain Attacks were focused in about 8 swing states. You can't poll on attack ads that 90 percent of the country aren't witnessing.

The 9 states that Obama / Priorities advertised in (Ohio, Florida, PA, VA, NC, NH, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado) make up almost 25% of the US population. Considering this and the fact that the national media talked about nothing but Bain and taxes for a good 10 days, I think it is pretty hard to argue that a good portion of the US electorate hasn't heard of the Bain / taxes argument. Was this poll an outlier? I have no idea. But from this and other polls it seems that the only people that care about the Bain attacks are those in the Priorities focus group that they touted just about every day as proof their attacks worked. Seems like no one else cares about Bain, and those who do seem to favor Romney.

[pbrower2a]

Hmm, how much have Romney and the Republican groups combined spent? Considering the economy is deteriorating and the numbers aren't moving towards Romney, it looks like the Republicans are more wasteful on spending than the Democrats!

Doublecross America has spent more than the official Romney campaign. Such shows who will be Boss if Mitt Romney is elected: Karl Rove.

[oompa]

Long time lurker, first time poster so please be gentle. Love this forum by the way.

When I look at the Bain attack adds, I do not get the sense they were designed to sway large swathes of the population. My feeling is they are targeted at a small group of people in a few pivotal states who already have their doubts about Romney. Thus the payoff will not be fully appreciated in polling (especially national polling), at least not right now. As cynical as it may be, I think these ads are designed to plant a seed in wobbly kneed Romney supporters (especially in the "rust belt"), and then hope the seed grows to the point where these people, regardless of their disdain for or dissatisfaction with Obama, just can not bring themselves to vote for Romney.

The risk Obama runs however, is turning off some of his own weak kneed people during this process. He has to walk the mythical line between all out attack and building a narrative of "better times ahead".   

[WhyteRain]

Long time lurker, first time poster so please be gentle. Love this forum by the way.

When I look at the Bain attack adds, I do not get the sense they were designed to sway large swathes of the population. My feeling is they are targeted at a small group of people in a few pivotal states who already have their doubts about Romney. Thus the payoff will not be fully appreciated in polling (especially national polling), at least not right now. As cynical as it may be, I think these ads are designed to plant a seed in wobbly kneed Romney supporters (especially in the "rust belt"), and then hope the seed grows to the point where these people, regardless of their disdain for or dissatisfaction with Obama, just can not bring themselves to vote for Romney.

The risk Obama runs however, is turning off some of his own weak kneed people during this process. He has to walk the mythical line between all out attack and building a narrative of "better times ahead".   

Point well-taken.  I wonder why Obama doesn't pound Romney on the auto bailout in the Midwest.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

lol, because that is the easiest to respond to.


"MITT ROMNEY WANTED TO LET DETROIT GO BANKRUPTCY!!!"

"OBAMA ACTUALLY PUT THEM INTO BANKRUPTCY!!!"

It is so easy to call him out on it that it wouldn't work right now, it would backfire. The only way to make it work is part of sleeper campaign late in the campaign with mass mailings, etc etc.

Or as part of a broader attack like the Bain thing, so that it slips through without a response and plants the seed that oompa mentioned. Which Rahmbo did as part of his interview a few weeks ago.

[krazen1211]

Hmm, how much have Romney and the Republican groups combined spent? Considering the economy is deteriorating and the numbers aren't moving towards Romney, it looks like the Republicans are more wasteful on spending than the Democrats!

Doublecross America has spent more than the official Romney campaign.Such shows who will be boss if Mitt Romney is elected: Karl Rove.

This is pretty nonsensical given that the Romney campaign has far more COH than Crossroads.

[Brittain33]

Long time lurker, first time poster so please be gentle. Love this forum by the way.

When I look at the Bain attack adds, I do not get the sense they were designed to sway large swathes of the population. My feeling is they are targeted at a small group of people in a few pivotal states who already have their doubts about Romney. Thus the payoff will not be fully appreciated in polling (especially national polling), at least not right now. As cynical as it may be, I think these ads are designed to plant a seed in wobbly kneed Romney supporters (especially in the "rust belt"), and then hope the seed grows to the point where these people, regardless of their disdain for or dissatisfaction with Obama, just can not bring themselves to vote for Romney.

The risk Obama runs however, is turning off some of his own weak kneed people during this process. He has to walk the mythical line between all out attack and building a narrative of "better times ahead".   

Point well-taken.  I wonder why Obama doesn't pound Romney on the auto bailout in the Midwest.

He will. Like the Ryan budget, it's an attack being held for later.

[pbrower2a]

Hmm, how much have Romney and the Republican groups combined spent? Considering the economy is deteriorating and the numbers aren't moving towards Romney, it looks like the Republicans are more wasteful on spending than the Democrats!

Doublecross America has spent more than the official Romney campaign.Such shows who will be boss if Mitt Romney is elected: Karl Rove.

This is pretty nonsensical given that the Romney campaign has far more COH than Crossroads.

Karl Rogue would effectively control Congress and overpower Romney. I assume that if Mitt Romney is elected President then the House remains R and the Senate goes R.

[pbrower2a]

Long time lurker, first time poster so please be gentle. Love this forum by the way.

I'm gentle at least the first time.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It can be to create doubt among those who might vote for a Republican for President because such is a sign of being a good and obedient employee. The Obama campaign surely wishes to plant the seeds of distrust in Mitt Romney as a person especially should the question of his ethics in business become significant. The appeal of Mitt Romney beyond the conservative base is that as an astute manager of capital he can solve the fiscal problems of the United States by simply cutting spending and giving more power to Corporate America.

In 2010 American voters decisively showed that they trust Corporate America more than they trust liberal politicians. In 2012 we will have a much-different electorate. Of course if it still more believes that Big Business is more trustworthy with personal happiness than is a liberal-leaning government, then the political climate in America will set itself rigidly for the  next two or so decades. Profits will soar while wages remain depressed and job security will depend upon being overworked and underpaid.   

You must be logged in to read this quote.

President Obama is not a populist. He knows well that no quick fix exists for economic distress. He needs convince enough Americans that they are better off sharing the necessary hardships of the Lesser Depression than taking even greater hardships on behalf of economic elites who act as if their profit, power, and privilege are the only measure of economic virtue. "Better times ahead" implies that people regain confidence about their own abilities to solve their own economic problems.

Barack Obama is very much a student of history. He can learn from anyone else's success, and I see him trying to imitate the 1988 Presidential campaign in which the elder George Bush (who offered basically the status quo) defeated Mike Dukakis. "Bain Capital" is being presented much as the GOP presented the thug Willie Horton. Bain Capital may have hurt more people economically than Willie Horton did personally.

The Willie Horton ads were used crudely -- nationwide. The Obama campaign will be more clever. The ones in swing states will begin "Here in Ohio"... in Ohio and "Here in Missouri"... in Missouri, with obvious variations for other states. (Missouri may not seem a swing state yet, but there is a Senate seat up for grabs. In the contest for controlling the Senate and the House, Missouri is a swing state). If a "successor" like George Herbert Walker Bush can win by creating doubts about the Other side, then incumbents can succeed if they have the appropriate tools.   

For the first couple of weeks the Willie Horton ads (and they were crude) no effect appeared in the polls. Then the Dukakis campaign utterly collapsed. We may see much the same this time with Mitt Romney... with ads more targeted at specific parts of the electorate. If people can't trust Mitt Romney as a businessman can they trust him as President?   

[sentinel]

Long time lurker, first time poster so please be gentle. Love this forum by the way.

I'm gentle at least the first time.

Innuendo

[pepper11]

Priorities USA is putting out a Romney Olympics ad. If they actually air this thing, this has to be the single worst political move imaginable. Patriotism comes out in full force during the olymipics, and if Americans get the sense that the games are being politicize, they will take strong offense. Most people probably just found the Bain ads annoying, but not offensive. These, if aired, will be offense to most. For Romneys sake, hopefully they try it.

[krazen1211]

Profits will soar while wages remain depressed and job security will depend upon being overworked and underpaid.   

That one line describes Obama's Presidency.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Priorities USA is putting out a Romney Olympics ad. If they actually air this thing, this has to be the single worst political move imaginable. Patriotism comes out in full force during the olymipics, and if Americans get the sense that the games are being politicize, they will take strong offense. Most people probably just found the Bain ads annoying, but not offensive. These, if aired, will be offense to most. For Romneys sake, hopefully they try it.

For once, I think we disagree. His experience at the Olympics doesn't get talked about enough and is a huge asset. The corruption surrounding the Salt Lake games was embarrassing, and Romney turned it around.

As long as the ad makes no mention of Obama, I think it's a plus... as long as it doesn't air during every single commercial break like the Romney-song.

[pepper11]

For once, I think we disagree. His experience at the Olympics doesn't get talked about enough and is a huge asset. The corruption surrounding the Salt Lake games was embarrassing, and Romney turned it around.  

It's an obama super pac ad that mocks Romney's tenure at the Olympics and juxtaposes the Swiss delegation with Romney's "Swiss" bank accounts and the Chinese delegation with outsourced jobs to china. It's a slap in the face to any athlete from any country at the games and I don't think Americans will like to see the Games and the countries involved used as pawns. I think that is dangerous territory

Restore our future is going to run a positive pro Romney ad. I think this is a very smart move as the Olympics engenders very sting positive feelings among Americans.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

For once, I think we disagree. His experience at the Olympics doesn't get talked about enough and is a huge asset. The corruption surrounding the Salt Lake games was embarrassing, and Romney turned it around.  

It's an obama super pac ad that mocks Romney's tenure at the Olympics and juxtaposes the Swiss delegation with Romney's "Swiss" bank accounts and the Chinese delegation with outsourced jobs to china. It's a slap in the face to any athlete from any country at the games and I don't think Americans will like to see the Games and the countries involved used as pawns. I think that is dangerous territory

Restore our future is going to run a positive pro Romney ad. I think this is a very smart move as the Olympics engenders very sting positive feelings among Americans.

God, I feel like a tool lol. Should've more clearly read your post. (Jobless student who'd just woken up at noon. Cut me some slack. )