In this thread I will post my Official 2024 Electoral College Ratings along with In-depth explanations and analysis of my choices,
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In summation, I have 268 Electoral Votes Safe/Likely/Lean Trump versus just 226 Electoral Votes Safe/Likely/Lean Biden, with this massive Trump advantage (he is only TWO Electoral votes short of 270, and only ONE Electoral Vote short of a 269 tie, that would cause the House to elect him President due to Republicans being projected to control at least 26 House delegations after the 2024 elections), powered by the fact that I have the Sun Belt Swing states of GA, AZ, and NV rated as Lean Trump (most prognosticators inaccurately rate these states as “Tossup”, despite the fact that Biden has not led a single Poll in one of these states this year, and Trump is leading all of them by 4-5 points in the RCP average), due to the fact that I am projecting these three states to all vote
Trump+5, due to the massive Republican swing amongst Hispanics and Asians (I am projecting both groups to vote
Biden+20, which is a 13 and 7 point Republican swing from 2020, respectively, with Hispanics swinging Republican due to a combination of Social Conservatism, perception that Trump symbolizes “Machismo”, and the tendency of Second/Third generation Immigrants to assimilate into mainstream White culture and become resentful of new immigrants, particularly “undocumented” ones, and Asians swinging Republican due to Fiscal Conservatism, Anti-Communism/Sinophobia amongst Vietnamese/Koreans/Japanese/Filipinos, Islamophobic Hindu Nationalism amongst many Indian Americans, and the Falun Gong Cult amongst many Chinese Americans, along with the aforementioned Second/Third generation assimilation and resultant resentment of new arrivals), Low Black turnout (I am projecting Blacks to vote
Biden+70, a 5 point Republican swing from 2020, due to slightly increased Third Party Voting and Low turnout caused by Bidens failure to pass Criminal Justice Reform and Voting Rights legislation, along with rightful sympathy towards the Palestinian cause in the face of Bidens aiding and abetting of the Genocide of Gaza), Low Young Progressive turnout (rightful anger towards both Bidens aiding and abetting of the Genocide of Gaza and the Sinophobic TikTok ban that destroys Free Speech), and increased Third Party voting amongst Young Progressives (mainly for the Green Party, due to their staunch opposition to the Genocide of Gaza), Never Trump Suburbanites (primarily for RFK due to his staunch Zionism and “Radical Centrist” ideology, and to a lesser extant for the Libertarian Party due to their combination of Fiscal Conservatism and Social/Cultural Liberalism), and Non-Whites (primarily for RFK, and to a lesser extent the Green Party), with these same factors causing me to rate North Carolina Likely Trump (I’m projecting it to vote
Trump+5), rate FL/TX/OH/IA Safe Trump (In contrast to many prognosticators which label them Likely Trump, there is absolutely ZERO chance any of these States vote for Biden, as I am projecting them all to vote
Trump+10), rate NE-02/MN/NH/VA/NM Lean Biden (I am projecting them all to vote
Biden+5), and rate Colorado and Mains Likely Biden (I am projecting them both to vote
Biden+5), while the key Rust Belt Bellwether Swing States of PA, MI, and WI are rated Tossup (I am projecting them to vote either
Trump<1 or
Biden<1), due to Biden’s relative strength with White Union workers as a result of his explicitly Pro-Union policies (his intervention to support the UAW in their strike is a prime example), along with generally higher turnout in these states because of how critical they are to deciding the election (the high amounts of advertising and campaigning in these states compared to the rest of the country helps exacerbate this), with the caveat that Bidens aiding and abetting of the genocide of Gaza could cause big problems in Michigan, due to the large Arab/Muslim community in Dearborn, though If Biden does the right thing (halting all military aid to Isreal and calling for an immediate Ceasefire, IDF withdrawal from Gaza, and reciprocal Hostage/Prisoner exchange, combined with an explicit path to a Two-State Solution according to the Geneva initiative), then this problem (along with the Low Turnout/Third Party voting problem amongst Young Progressive, and to a lesser extent Black voters) could be solved, ✊
!. Finally, despite the fact that I rate all of these states Safe Biden, I am projecting California to vote
Biden+20, New York to vote
Biden+15, and IL/WA/OR/CT/NJ/DE to vote
Biden+10, with these massive Republican swings in these Democratic stronghold from the 2020 results caused by the aforementioned Republican swings amongst Hispanics and Asians, Low Turnout amongst Young Progressives and Blacks, increased increased Third Party voting amongst Young Progressives, Non-Whites, and Never Trump Suburbanites, along with general Low Turnout and increased Third Party voting in Safe States (particularly Democratic ones like New York and California, due to the obvious fact that your vote largely doesn’t matter in these states due to the Electoral College, with this giving disenfranchised Democrats the ability to cast risk free protest votes/absentations in these States), with this causing Trump to be more likely to win the Popular vote (~70% chance) then to win the Electoral College (~55% chance), 😂🤣
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