Democrats need to get their s**t together.
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Democrats need to get their s**t together.
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Author Topic: Democrats need to get their s**t together.  (Read 736 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #25 on: May 28, 2024, 02:56:17 AM »

According to current polling, Biden is tied at best in the national popular vote. This is despite Trump's Supreme Court Injustices flat-out endorsing January 6, his opponent facing numerous felony charges, Project 2025 (which Biden won't f**king talk about), Trump's promises to abandon Ukraine and carpet-bomb Gaza even more, a forthcoming genocide against trans people if Trump wins, Trump's horrendous "handling" of COVID that led to over a million American fatalities, and so much more.

This election shouldn't even be remotely close. Biden's campaign doesn't even get an F from me - it gets a Z. Any remotely competent Democratic incumbent President would be crushing Trump, and instead Biden's the one getting crushed according to much of the polling. I'm going to vote for Biden, but I fully expect him to lose, and when he does, it's all his fault.
Unlike in 2020 the Biden Campaign has no Strategy this year. In 2020 it was all about WI, MI, PA and it worked.
This year they can't get to 270 with only those 3 States. They need NE-2 or NV.
Given that Biden is apparently more unpopular in the Sunbelt compared to the Rustbelt from the Data we have I cast doubt they will win NC and GA & AZ (where they only won by 10K). And they need to do away with these "Wishcasting States" like FL and TX. Not happening.

NE2 is an easy win, it's still a 6 point Biden win in 2020 and is full of highly educated whites-the demographic least likely to swing to Trump. Obviously though, nobody wants to win by exactly 270 electoral votes, so Biden should and is working hard in other states. That said, the 270-268 map is plausible.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #26 on: May 28, 2024, 03:18:02 AM »

According to current polling, Biden is tied at best in the national popular vote. This is despite Trump's Supreme Court Injustices flat-out endorsing January 6, his opponent facing numerous felony charges, Project 2025 (which Biden won't f**king talk about), Trump's promises to abandon Ukraine and carpet-bomb Gaza even more, a forthcoming genocide against trans people if Trump wins, Trump's horrendous "handling" of COVID that led to over a million American fatalities, and so much more.

This election shouldn't even be remotely close. Biden's campaign doesn't even get an F from me - it gets a Z. Any remotely competent Democratic incumbent President would be crushing Trump, and instead Biden's the one getting crushed according to much of the polling. I'm going to vote for Biden, but I fully expect him to lose, and when he does, it's all his fault.
Unlike in 2020 the Biden Campaign has no Strategy this year. In 2020 it was all about WI, MI, PA and it worked.
This year they can't get to 270 with only those 3 States. They need NE-2 or NV.
Given that Biden is apparently more unpopular in the Sunbelt compared to the Rustbelt from the Data we have I cast doubt they will win NC and GA & AZ (where they only won by 10K). And they need to do away with these "Wishcasting States" like FL and TX. Not happening.

NE2 is an easy win, it's still a 6 point Biden win in 2020 and is full of highly educated whites-the demographic least likely to swing to Trump. Obviously though, nobody wants to win by exactly 270 electoral votes, so Biden should and is working hard in other states. That said, the 270-268 map is plausible.


We need NV and the last poll had Trump up 3 in NEB 2 it's not an easy win for us
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jfern
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« Reply #27 on: May 28, 2024, 04:04:38 AM »


If you disagree with me, tell me why you disagree besides my username.
I honestly don’t have many complaints with the way Biden has been running his campaign thus far. He’s been raising a lot of money has booked up tons of ad reservations, has been visiting/opening offices in swing states and has a really strong ground game, he’s also hitting on a lot of the right points (contrasting his record with Trump’s).

Also he’s not getting “crushed” in polling. He’s tied both nationally and in the states that actually matter, polls don’t even have to change between now and NOV, one small error and he wins.

In lots of NPV polls he's down by 3+ points. That's enough to lose the Electoral College by quite a bit.

Yeah a few outliers, he’s also up by 3 points in some. Averages show him within two points both nationally and in the states that matter (with some averages actually showing him ahead according to some of those metrics)

It's 2.1 points in the tipping point state of Pennsylvania right now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
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