MS About To Become Another Georgia

[jimrtex]

Well I think it will be sad for the Democratic Party.  However, for some time it has appeared that Mississippi is becoming more Republican at the local level like most Southern states.  This could, however, be a relatively short-term trend - since according to demographic trends, the state will be majority black by the 2044 Presidential election or something like that? 

(1) Turnout of African Americans is far lower than that of their white counterparts.

(2) In most areas of the deep south, whites vote as monolithically Republican (federally) as blacks vote monolithically Democratic.

Is any of this true?  Mississippi is about 2/3 white at the O18 level.  Among 55-60 YO level it is closer to 75%, and 20-24 closer to 60%.

When age-adjusted, do black Mississippians vote at a lower rate than white Mississippians?

And if factoid (2) is correct, how do you explain how the Presidential election in 2004 was 60-40?

That's interesting, but would go against national racial voting trends. 

It would be easily explained, though.  CNN exit poll:

Whites (65%): Bush 85%, Kerry 14%
Blacks (34%): Kerry 90%, Bush 10%

That works out to 59%-40% Bush.

If turnout was 65% White, 34% Black, then on an age-adjusted basis, Blacks are more likely to vote than Whites.

And even then, Whites are nearly 50% more likely to support the Democrat presidential candidate than Blacks are to support the Republican presidential candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Seeing as Mississippi has banned sex toys, yet has no minimum wage, I will be very glad when all the DINOs are booted out of the party. If you're going to be an extremely horrible batsh**t crazy right-winger, get the hell out.

Keep going with that, keep only the far left in the party so that the Republicans will win with your far-left crazies in control.

So all Democrats who don't support bans on sex toys and support the minimum wage are far left crazies?

No, that's only in your warped world.

jfern's post said "Seeing as Mississippi has banned sex toys, yet has no minimum wage, I will be very glad when all the DINOs are booted out of the party. If you're going to be an extremely horrible batsh**t crazy right-winger, get the hell out. "

You said "Keep going with that, keep only the far left in the party so that the Republicans will win with your far-left crazies in control."

jfern is clearly telling the people in the party who oppose the minimum and support bans on sex toys to get out. Since you interpret this as "keeping only the far left in the party", it implies that you consider anyone who opposes sex toy bans and supports the minimum wage as "far left"

[Alcon]

If turnout was 65% White, 34% Black, then on an age-adjusted basis, Blacks are more likely to vote than Whites.

Interesting, and surprising.

[7,052,770]

If turnout was 65% White, 34% Black, then on an age-adjusted basis, Blacks are more likely to vote than Whites.

Interesting, and surprising.

It's because for some reason, young black people are really getting out and voting.  That's why the under-30's backed Kerry in 2004.  Not under-30 whites, but under-30 blacks who really got out there and voted.

[Nym90]

Wouldn't it be more accurate to say that Georgia is becoming another Mississippi? Mississippi hasn't been truly competitive for Democrats for anything other than local races for quite some time (hasn't voted Dem for President since 1976 or for Senate since 1982). Georgia was at least until recently still winnable for the Dems, having voted Dem for President in 1992 and for the Senate in 2000 (or if you don't want to count Zell Miller, still voted Dem in 1996 for Senate).

[StateBoiler]

(idealist)

Why don't the white centrist Democrats form a Mississippi-only "Populist Party"?

(/idealist)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as terrorism is the key issue in these elections, I think that the centrist Dems in below the Mason-Dixon line will be content voting GOP because the GOP does better on terrorism. I think once the war on terror is defeated, these centrist dems will be more happy to vote more traditional.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think once the war on terror is defeated, these centrist dems will be more happy to vote more traditional.

Are you kidding?  If the GOP has trended towards the right in recent years, then Democrats have definitely trended towards the left.  The Democratic Party as a whole is simply not tolerant of southern culture, and that's why the southern cuture isn't very tolerant of the Democratic Party anymore.

Just like New England won't swing back towards Republicans post-war, neither will the south swing back towards Democrats.

[Mr.Phips]

Well I think it will be sad for the Democratic Party.  However, for some time it has appeared that Mississippi is becoming more Republican at the local level like most Southern states.  This could, however, be a relatively short-term trend - since according to demographic trends, the state will be majority black by the 2044 Presidential election or something like that? 

(1) Turnout of African Americans is far lower than that of their white counterparts.
(2) In most areas of the deep south, whites vote as monolithically Republican (federally) as blacks vote monolithically Democratic.

Even if the state becomes majority black, Republicans will still dominate.

I acknowledge that.  However, if Barack Obama was the Democratic candidate in 2008 I predict we could see Mississippi's black turnout significantly rise (as it would nationally).  Obama could perhaps get 43%-44% in Mississippi. 

Bush did pretty good in Connecticut and New Jersey in 2004, but a lot of good it did Republicans there.

It did do them good.  They held three Dem leaning House seats.

[7,052,770]

The Democratic Party as a whole is simply not tolerant of southern culture

What a bunch of garbage that my existence singlehandedly disproves!

[Rob]

If the GOP has trended towards the right in recent years, then Democrats have definitely trended towards the left.

Haha! The party whose leadership endorsed welfare reform, free trade, and the war in Iraq? The party that can't even be counted on to close ranks against GOP tax cuts for the rich or extremist judicial nominees? The party that loves to talk about patriotism and family values?

I'd really like to know what you mean by "trended... left."

[StateBoiler]

Ballot Access News article on the Mississippi decision in their July issue:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/070107.html#1

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RBH]

Note to Mississippi: Flip the bird to the courts and pass a Louisiana-style blanket primary.

But then again, morons like Ike Brown would rather be Post Office Democrats than part of a majority party.