Young Voter Trends: Can We Predict the Future?

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'm not sure if I understand what this post is asking, but I'll try to give my opinion and analysis on it. If the post is asking whether my generation (young voters ages 18-29) will remain strongly Democratic in years to come, I don't think anyone can predict that, but I'll offer my take on it.

Everyone has already mentioned it elsewhere on this forum, but young voters are much more liberal on social issues than the general population and that doesn't bode well for the Republicans who's the party of anything and everything that's only conservative. The Republicans are either going to have to "moderate" on the social issues (maybe take a middle-of-the-road position on abortion such as, "We are pro-life but support abortion only in cases of rape and incest and if the woman's life is threatened during a harmful pregnancy" as opposed to "Abortion is murder and if you support it, you're going to Hell!" and on gay marriage they could say something like, "We believe marriage is between a man and a woman but support civil unions for gay couples," as opposed to "Homosexuality is a sin and anyone who supports their agenda is going to Hell.") or they're going to have to ultimately ditch the Religious Right wing of their party and become more libertarian in their message. But since I don't see either happening, I'd say that as things are right now, my generation will remain strongholds of the Democratic Party, but ultimately I do think that things could change over the course of time.

If you look at the exit polls at the anti-gay and anti-abortion ballot measures that some states had in 2008, you'll see an alarming trend of progressivism among my generation:

Arizona - Proposition 102: Ban on Gay Marriage (Passed 56-44)
• 18-29: 48% Yes, 52% No
• 30-44: 58% Yes, 42% No
• 45-64: 54% Yes, 46% No
• 65+: 63% Yes, 37% No

Arkansas - Initiative 1: Ban on Gay Couples Adopting Children (Passed 57-43)
• 18-24: 44% Yes, 56% No
• 25-29: 47% Yes, 53% No
• 30-39: 61% Yes, 39% No
• 40-49: 54% Yes, 46% No
• 50-64: 59% Yes, 41% No
• 65+: 65% Yes, 35% No 

California - Proposition 8: Ban on Gay Marriage (Passed 52-48)
• 18-24: 36% Yes, 64% No
• 25-29: 41% Yes, 59% No
• 30-39: 52% Yes, 48% No
• 40-49: 59% Yes, 41% No
• 50-64: 51% Yes, 49% No
• 65+: 61% Yes, 39% No

Florida - Amendment 2: Ban on Gay Marriage (Passed 62-38)
• 18-24: 52% Yes, 48% No
• 25-29: 54% Yes, 46% No
• 30-39: 63% Yes, 37% No
• 40-49: 66% Yes, 34% No
• 50-64: 61% Yes, 39% No
• 65+: 66% Yes, 34% No

Michigan - Proposition 2: Allow Stem Cell Research (Passed 52-48)
• 18-24: 59% Yes, 41% No
• 25-29: 60% Yes, 40% No
• 30-39: 53% Yes, 47% No
• 40-49: 50% Yes, 50% No
• 50-64: 53% Yes, 47% No
• 65+: 47% Yes, 53% No

South Dakota - Initiative 11: Abortion Limits (Failed 45-55)
• 18-24: 41% Yes, 59% No
• 25-29: 39% Yes, 61% No
• 30-39: 46% Yes, 54% No
• 40-49: 44% Yes, 56% No
• 50-64: 47% Yes, 53% No
• 65+: N/A