Young Voter Trends: Can We Predict the Future?

[Hillary 2016]

The youngest voters from 2004-2008

State       2004 Margin      2008 Margin            Swing

The Mid-Atlantic

PA            60-39 Kerry       66-34 Obama              D + 6
DE           54-45 Kerry        71-25 Obama        D + 17
NY           72-25 Kerry         76-21 Obama       D + 4
NJ            64-35 Kerry        67-32 Obama           D + 3
MD       62-35 Kerry       70-26 Obama      D + 8
DC           90-8 Kerry       95-5 Obama       D + 5

New England

CT            70-29 Kerry       79-18 Obama      D + 9
ME          50-48 Bush       67-30 Obama      D + 19
NH           57-43 Kerry       61-37 Obama      D + 4
VT           71-27 Kerry       81-18 Obama      D + 10
MA          72-26 Kerry       78-20 Obama      D + 6
RI            68-30 Kerry       68-25 Obama      D + 0

The Midwest

OH           56-42 Kerry       61-38 Obama              D + 5
IN            52-47 Bush        63-35 Obama              D + 16
MO           51-48 Kerry        59-39 Obama             D + 8
IA              53-46 Kerry        63-34 Obama            D + 10
MI             55-43 Kerry         68-29 Obama            D + 13
MN           57-41 Kerry         66-32 Obama            D + 9
WI            57-41 Kerry         64-35 Obama            D + 7
IL             64-35 Kerry        71-27 Obama    D + 7

The Coastal South

VA            54-46 Kerry       63-34 Obama              D + 9
NC            56-43 Kerry       74-26 Obama              D + 18
SC            51-48 Bush        57-42 Obama             D + 9
GA            52-47 Bush        51-48 McCain             D + 1
FL             58-41 Kerry        61-37 Obama             D + 3

The Deep and Inland South

AL            57-41 Bush         51-49 Obama           D + 10
MS           63-37 Kerry         56-43 Obama           R + 6
TN            53-46 Bush         59-40 Obama           D + 13
KY           54-45 Bush          51-48 Obama           D + 6
WV          52-48 Bush         50-50 Tie      D + 2
AR           51-47 Bush         49-49 Tie      D + 2
LA            53-45 Bush         49-48 McCain   D + 4 (but won 18-24 by 53-45)
TX       59-41 Bush         54-45 Obama   D + 13

The Plains States

KS           55-44 Bush          51-47 Obama   D + 7
ND           68-32 Bush         51-47 Obama   D + 19
SD           55-43 Bush         50-48 Obama   D + 7
NE           60-38 Bush         54-43 Obama   D + 16
OK           62-38 Bush         60-40 McCain   D + 2

The Rockies and the Southwest

AZ           50-48 Bush        52-48 Obama   D + 4
NV            56-42 Kerry        70-29 Obama           D + 14
NM           50-49 Bush         77-21 Obama           D + 27
CO           51-47 Kerry         No result                  N/A
UT            77-18 Bush         62-33 McCain           D + 15
WY          72-25 Bush         63-35 McCain   D + 10
MT      52-43 Bush        61-37 Obama   D + 18
ID            65-35 Bush        56-42 McCain   D + 7

The West

CA           58-39 Kerry         76-23 Obama   D + 18 (80% of 18-24 for Obama)
OR           62-37 Kerry          No result      N/A
WA          50-47 Kerry          No result      N/A
AK           59-37 Bush         61-37 Bush      R + 2
HI             61-39 Kerry         82-18 Obama   D + 21

Findings:

For some very strange reason, the exit polls show that in Mississippi, young voters became more Republican.  This doesn't make sense since Obama was able to still win young voters, but Kerry, the northeastern "elitist liberal", actually won 63% of these voters.  I had asked a young, black college professor from MS about that and she said the 63% could be because of a number of reasons: (1) young voters in Mississippi opposed the Iraq War on religious grounds, (2) young voters in Mississippi are much more mixed racially than the older generation which is whiter, (3) even in Mississippi, young voters are more progressive.

I'm guessing that Colorado had something similar to most of the other states, which was a 60+ majority for Barack.

Barack Obama would have lost Indiana and North Carolina without 18-24 voters.

North Carolina and Georgia are going to be VERY different states in the future.

Take a look at that swing in North Carolina - 74% of all voters 18-29 in North Carolina supported Barack.

So if you make believe 18-29 year olds made up all of the electorate, you would have had the media call 2004 a huge Democratic landslide, and 2008 would have been an absolute blowout.

Even the states that Bush would have won would have been by much weaker majorities that dwarf in comparison to his big wins in the 2004 red states (for example, ruby red Kansas, a state that went for Bush with 62% would have only gone to him by 55%).  In 2008, Kansas would have become a blue state.

The 2008 election would have been a DISASTER for John McCain.  He would have even lost his home state of Arizona by 4 points (and 18-24 year olds in AZ by 20 points).

And this is big: TEXAS, the mother of red states, goes bright blue.

Based on this, we can try to predict what the new realignment will be in the future if these voters continue this pattern.  Remember, voting twice or three times for the same party makes you more likely to keep voting that way.  Look at what the late 70s and 80s did for the young people - they saw Ronald Reagan and the Republicans as stronger and today they vote Republican in large numbers.

The Bluest States in 2008 for .young voters were: North Carolina (74% Democratic), Massachusetts (78% Dem), New York (76% Dem), Connecticut (79% Dem), New Mexico (77% Dem), California (76% Dem), Nevada (70% Dem), Maryland (70%), Delaware (71%), Illinois (71%), and perhaps Washington, Oregon, and Colorado.

Then you had a lot of really blue states but in the 60s range: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Unfortunately I don't know how to post a map...I still don't understand how you all do the red-blue switch, it's so confusing!!!  I know the creator of this forum remembers 1984's sea of Reagan blue, but all I can remember is that sea of Bush red in 2004.

ANYWAY, Lets discuss how all this makes a difference, or does it?  Will these Obama supermajorities change the electoral map of the 2020's, 30's, and 40's?  Will there be another voter realignment, with states like Oklahoma and Utah being very out of touch with the rest of the country?!?

[Hillary 2016]

First of all, thank you for this map!  I still don't know how to put that map in the messages, is there a button you press to make a map appear?

I read through your entire analysis and I agree with it all, and I also am very fascinated by your discussion about the rapacious elites and the pandering to them that caused those decades where the people in power were stooges for the special interests - the 1760s, the 1850s, and the 1920s, and now 2001-2007 - and I realize that after all of these decades there seems to be a major upheaval - the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the Great Depression - are we experiencing that upheaval with the Great Recession or is there something coming in the 2010s?  I mean, we did make history by electing Barack Obama, an upheaval of sorts in itself, right?

Something tells me the 2010's will not be much different than now, maybe some new inventions in technology, adding onto the Googles and the Facebooks and the Twitters and the Blackberrys and the iPods, but I just don't see any sort of innovation in the other areas of life, like transportation, medicine, and major breakthroughs in science.

 I also don't see any dramatic changes in the culture.  Fashion has remained the same - very boring, very conservative - aside from the emos and the "Starbucks hipster/indie look", was there really any kind of counterculture in this generation?  Our celebrity culture has gotten even more ridiculous.

I also want to ask another question: Does the culture emulate the President in power?

And p.s. - Why can't I type a lot on this thing without it going crazy if I type too much?  I have to type things in WordPad and then paste it in.  Can the site manager please fix this?