Bunning Will Not Seek Reelection

[SamInTheSouth]

Jim Bunning has announced that he will not seek reelection next year.  I am thinking that would put this seat back in a lean Republican category by default, rather than a toss up, but it will depend on the candidates from parties I imagine.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2009/07/bunning-says-he-will-not-seek-reelection.html

[FloridaRepublican]

Jim Bunning has announced that he will not seek reelection next year.  I am thinking that would put this seat back in a lean Republican category by default, rather than a toss up, but it will depend on the candidates from parties I imagine.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2009/07/bunning-says-he-will-not-seek-reelection.html

GOOD.  Now the republicans have a good chance of holding the seat.  The last thing we need is net gains for democrats in congress.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Lucky breaks for the GOP of late.  Lisa Madigan passes on a Senate race.  Bunning will retire.  Dodd will not.  Guess they'll get Castle to run too.

[pogo stick]

Jim Bunning has announced that he will not seek reelection next year.  I am thinking that would put this seat back in a lean Republican category by default, rather than a toss up, but it will depend on the candidates from parties I imagine.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2009/07/bunning-says-he-will-not-seek-reelection.html

GOOD.  Now the republicans have a good chance of holding the seat.  The last thing we need is net gains for democrats in congress.

Agreed. I like Bunning as a senator, but It's notl ikely to see him win another term.

Go Trey!

[The Arizonan]

Lucky breaks for the GOP of late.  Lisa Madigan passes on a Senate race.  Bunning will retire.  Dodd will not.  Guess they'll get Castle to run too.

It could have been worse. Linda Lingle and John Hoeven could have been running for the U.S. Senate as well.

[Holmes]

But the Democrats' candidate is so dreamy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'd still call it a tossup at this point. Conway is fundraising like a madman and the one or two polls that have been put out so far show it a tie between him and Greyson. I'd wait and see what happens.

[The Arizonan]

However, McConnell is not going to get reelected in 2014.

EDIT: I wasn't paying attention to the year when I was typing this.

[Kevinstat]

However, McConnell is not going to get reelected in 2010.

Were you joking?  I couldn't tell, but McConnell was just reelected last fall and his seat isn't up until 2014 which, if Obama is reelected in 2012, will probably not be in a favorable climate for Democratic pickups.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Toss-up/tilt Dem -> Mod GOP

I would still keep an eye on this one though but KY has swung hard away from the Dems over the last decade and the Republican candidate appears to be fairly strong. Once Greyson actually announces I expect his fundraising will improve and money won't be an issue. 

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Excellent.

[pogo stick]

However, McConnell is not going to get reelected in 2014.

EDIT: I wasn't paying attention to the year when I was typing this.

Um.. yea, your not a complete hack. How would oyu know? You don't even live in Kentucky? If he won in a ultra-democrat year, he can win in 2014

[SamInTheSouth]

Lucky breaks for the GOP of late.  Lisa Madigan passes on a Senate race.  Bunning will retire.  Dodd will not.  Guess they'll get Castle to run too.

It could have been worse. Linda Lingle and John Hoeven could have been running for the U.S. Senate as well.

Is Inouye running for reelection?  There is no way Lingle would jump in as long as Inouye is seeking another term.  If he retires though, you can almost count on it.

[SamInTheSouth]

Lucky breaks for the GOP of late.  Lisa Madigan passes on a Senate race.  Bunning will retire.  Dodd will not.  Guess they'll get Castle to run too.

Castle doesn't seem all that interested and he is the only Republican that I think could win.

[pogo stick]

Hoeven will not run. Lingle will run and lose 59-41 or at best 57-43

[I'm Not a Witch]

I just saw on our local news channel that the candidates were at some barbecue-rally thing in Fancy Farm and apparently Mongiardo's campaign is attacking Conway because he told the crowd who booed at him that they could chew on his hyde all they wanted but that they better chew harder because he's a "tough son of a bitch." I'd like to chew on his hyde lol

[DownWithTheLeft]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

Not that I can see. Between Northern KY(along the OH border) which is Bunning's base(Grayson is a Bunning protege); the traditional rocked ribbed Republicans in the Southeast(Hal Rogers District, been heaving Republican since about the Civil War and heavily Conservative); and The Conservatives in the Central part of the state and to the West, I don't see where a Libertarian finds much of a base especially in a Republican primary.

[SamInTheSouth]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

A couple of conservatives I know say Grayson is a "RINO" but I don't know anything about the guy.

[Χahar]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

He opened his campaign in NYC.

He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

A couple of conservatives I know say Grayson is a "RINO" but I don't know anything about the guy.

How is Grayson, a RINO?

[Gravis Marketing]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

A couple of conservatives I know say Grayson is a "RINO" but I don't know anything about the guy.

How is Grayson, a RINO?

I doubt he's a RINO, but he's a Harvard graduate, so that may cause some tensions with people who came up solely from within the state.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is there any chance Rand Paul can win the primary?  I mean the guy puts out a nauseating amount of Facebook posts, but other than that I haven't heard a word about him in this race

A couple of conservatives I know say Grayson is a "RINO" but I don't know anything about the guy.

How is Grayson, a RINO?

I doubt he's a RINO, but he's a Harvard graduate, so that may cause some tensions with people who came up solely from within the state.

Okay lets say you are Rand Paul. How do you play that card when you yourself just announced in NYC? He is opening himself up to a hypocracy charge.

[Reluctant Republican]

Being  a devoted Paulite, I thought I’d drop on in and post this.

http://www.beloblog.com/WHAS_Blogs/PoliticalBlogger/2009/08/grayson-mongiardo-lead-in-sena.html

Not sure I can legally copy and paste from the link, I’ll remove if I should.

Attorney General Jack Conway is the fundraising frontrunner, but the WHAS11 Survey USA poll of Kentuckians over the last three days shows Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo with an eight point advantage over Conway in the Democratic primary, 39% to 31% -- a lead that Mongiardo will certainly trumpet in his fundraising efforts.
Fayette County official Lillie E. Miller Johnson gets 4%.
Former customs agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price 3%
and businessman Maurice Marion Sweeney 1%.
With a combined 23% left over.
For the republicans, Secretary of State Trey Grayson has been considered the presumptive nominee. But -- Bowling Green opthamologist Rand Paul is a wild card -- especially if he can tap into the national fundraising support of his father, former presidential candidate Ron Paul.
So far -- Grayson leads 37% to 26% in the Republican primary. Despite the 11 point lead, that's a strong early showing for the relatively unknown eye doctor.
Campell County enigineer Roger Thoney gets 5%
Businessman and veteran Bill Johnson 2% -
Math teacher Brian Oerther 0%
with 30% either for someone else or undecided

Head to head's should be out soon as well. I'm suprised to see Mongiardo doing so well. Though you guys would know better then me how much stock to put into this poll.

Edit: Head to head numbers, according to the site above, though I can't find the poll itself anywhere yet.

Grayson: 44%
Conway: 37%

Grayson: 46%
Mongiardo: 40%

Paul: 38%
Conway: 43%

Paul: 41%
Mongiardo: 43%