Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.

71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?

Carl Paladino was on the ballot in 2010.

[Vasall des Midas]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.

71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?

Carl Paladino was on the ballot in 2010.

And he had massive coattails in his little fief? Wow. The clown must be a god to Erie County.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They weren't massive; I don't think the Republicans picked up any seats in Erie County (aside from Grisanti winning, but Thompson had his own problems). But it was enough to cut the margins of a couple Dems in the district significantly.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So all the seats were Dem holds?

[Vasall des Midas]

So all the seats were Dem holds?

Yeah. 23rd was close at 54-46. Utica seat was 59-41. Hilarious Dem fight was hilarious, but the major parties candidate won (with under 50%) and the Black woman came third. That district is Bushwick. Other three races were the expected blowouts.

[The Head Beagle]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.

71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?

Yes, quite literally: the Conservative candidate was a veteran Buffalo city councillor who ran in the Democratic primary and flipped to the Conservative nomination after losing that. Furthermore, this district is entirely contained within the Senate district where ex-Democrat Mark Grisanti beat corrupt Democrat Antoine Thompson. So I'm not sure Paladino's really the issue.

[Vasall des Midas]

Thanks Linus!

[Former Moderate]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

[rbt48]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

This is awesome news.  Only forty eight more seats to gain and the GOP takes control of the lower house.

[redcommander]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

Great news. Republicans need more office holders in New England.

[smoltchanov]

Great news. Republicans need more office holders in New England.

For this to happen they must run more moderate candidates. Are they ready for it?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There was also another Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House.

[smoltchanov]

There was also another Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House.

Incidentally, AFAIK,  Democratic candidate there was former moderate-to-liberal Republican and Republicans ran a far-right O'Brien-type winger there...

[Gravis Marketing]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

That turnout is lower than in a 34th Middlesex primary. The Tea Party folks came out and the Dem machine didn't, it looks like. Do you know why Brunelle didn't get votes?

[redcommander]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

That turnout is lower than in a 34th Middlesex primary. The Tea Party folks came out and the Dem machine didn't, it looks like. Do you know why Brunelle didn't get votes?

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.

[smoltchanov]

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.

Turnout in New Bedford was abysmal. In addition - it seems to me that voters in many parts of US, are of anti-incumbent mood now. In Republican-dominated New Hampshire they vote Democratic in one special after another (the only exception was - well, an exception, with "nonstandard" Republican candidate), in heavily Democratic-dominated (and scandal-plagued, mostly - with Democratic officeholders) they seem to inclined to "punish" them at least a little. Possibly - combination of both...

[Former Moderate]

It's still not good news for Democrats in the state that Republicans now have 33 in the House. Massachusetts Dems should have motivated voters for the seat seeing at how successful they were with their GOTV effort last Fall. Orrall is quite Conservative, even for the standards of a Massachusetts Republican.

Turnout in New Bedford was abysmal. In addition - it seems to me that voters in many parts of US, are of anti-incumbent mood now. In Republican-dominated New Hampshire they vote Democratic in one special after another (the only exception was - well, an exception, with "nonstandard" Republican candidate), in heavily Democratic-dominated (and scandal-plagued, mostly - with Democratic officeholders) they seem to inclined to "punish" them at least a little. Possibly - combination of both...

Democrats were a victim of their own redistricting map. Parts of Middleboro and Lakeville, two of the most Republican towns in Massachusetts (both were among a select few that voted for Kerry Healey in 2006), were crammed into a district dominated by New Bedford. In a normal election, New Bedford keeps the GOP out of the game.

Predictably, Orrall won every town in the district except for New Bedford (though Taunton was close), which she lost by 3:1. The problem for Democrats was that New Bedford's turnout was an abysmal 11%, while Lakeville, which Orrall won by 3:1, turned out at a 29% rate. That right there was game, set, match.

It would seem that the parts of Massachusetts that should be electing Republican state reps finally are. This should make a large number of conservative Democrats -- many of whom need to run a good 20 or 30 points ahead of the GOP nominee for governor to win -- nervous. And I Think you'll see that when the redistricting maps get released in the coming months.

[Gravis Marketing]

This is similar to Scott Brown's win. Turnout in the struggling cities in Mass. in special elections is absolutely abysmal. Brown did abnormally well in places like Lowell and Lawrence because tons of voters who come out every 4 years, didn't do so. Brown won for other reasons too, but this was part of the picture that we are also seeing here.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So those two Minnesota specials ended up as expected:

46:
Independence    TOM REYNOLDS    292   5.35   
Republican    CORY JENSEN    1782   32.67   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    CHRIS EATON    3374   61.85   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    7   0.13

61:
Independence    MATT BRILLHART    44   1.62   
Republican    BRUCE A. LUNDEEN    221   8.13   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    JEFF HAYDEN    1856   68.24   
Green    FARHEEN HAKEEM    595   21.88   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    4   0.15

[So the Heroes Fall]

We got two more specials upcoming, one Senate one House. The House one is of course Hayden's seat. The Senate one is district 59 in northeast Minneapolis and the University of Minnesota area, as the incumbent Larry Pogemiller was appointed by Dayton to be the state's director of higher education. Both are obviously utterly safe seats but I'd like to look for patterns in the primaries. Primary Dec. 6, special Jan. 10.

[Keystone Phil]

We're going to have quite a few since a number of State Representatives have been elected to municipal government. I believe the breakdown is three from Philly (including my State Representative. That would be the only remotely competitive seat from the city), one from Montco, one from Lehigh and one from Allegheny.

We're left wondering if the specials will take place in the old or new districts and when each representative will resign. Since my district was eliminated, someone might only get to serve for seven months.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

[Holmes]

Haha, CARL. Stealth brag there if I ever seen one.

[rbt48]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

True:  none did.  The NJ Assembly did go from 47D, 33R to 48D, 32R.  In Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana, the Democrats lost seats across the board.  They lost the Mississippi House and also are now on the losing end of a tie in the Virginia Senate (as the Lt Gov has vowed to break all ties for organizing the chamber in the GOP's favor).

[BigSkyBob]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

Since Nov 2010, the GOP gained majorities in five legislatures, and the Democrats none:the Lousiana House by party switches, the Lousiana Senate by special elections, the Mississippi Senate by party switches, the Mississippi House on election day, and the Virginia Senate on election day. In one year, that's a switch from a 5-1 advantage, to a 1-5 disadvantage.

It must have been a pretty painful year for partisan Democrats to watch!