Alternate US States

[Ameriplan]

Let's go with Allegheny.

Allegheny

Solidly Republican even with Pittsburgh, Allegheny would've been John McCain's closest state after Missouri (MT doesn't exist).
I accept propositions for the State capital, since the only city I know there is Pittsburgh.

AY county map :


John McCain : 1,188,901 (51.17%) => 10 EVs
Barack Obama : 1,096,713 (47.21%)
Others : 37,599 (1.62%)


LNPI : -11.23 => solid rep.
If the State was expected to be more republican that the average, this huge LNPI makes it almost as republican as PA is democratic. As I said before, the final result of Pennsylvania split is a gain of 10 EVs for republicans and a loss of 8 for Democrats. Anyways, interesting to see how democrats have lost ground around here, whereas AY would probably have been more democratic than PA in the past.

What the hell, let's go with Butler as the capital.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I've decided to spotlight some interesting elections from past years. I'll start with:

1988 Results for Chicago:
George H. W. Bush (R): 1,614,245 (49.72%)
Michael Dukakis (D): 1,607,587 (49.51%)
Others: 24,852 (0.77%)

What... Bush carried Chicago ?!? How comes ?

Chicago suburbs used to be very Republican, and even Cook county wasn't as overwhelmingly Democratic as it is today. The only counties in Chicago that Dukakis carried were Cook (55.77%), Kenosha (57.72%), and the Lake in Indiana (56.55%), while suburban counties such as DuPage hovered around 70% for Bush.

[Californian Tony]

I've decided to spotlight some interesting elections from past years. I'll start with:

1988 Results for Chicago:
George H. W. Bush (R): 1,614,245 (49.72%)
Michael Dukakis (D): 1,607,587 (49.51%)
Others: 24,852 (0.77%)

What... Bush carried Chicago ?!? How comes ?

Chicago suburbs used to be very Republican, and even Cook county wasn't as overwhelmingly Democratic as it is today. The only counties in Chicago that Dukakis carried were Cook (55.77%), Kenosha (57.72%), and the Lake in Indiana (56.55%), while suburban counties such as DuPage hovered around 70% for Bush.

But the weird thing is that Illinois was quite close at the time (it went to Bush by only 2 points), so if Dukakis is so poor in Chicago, it means he'd poll quite well in the new Illinois. He probably would have lost by a margin inferior to Bush's national margin, which means Alternate Illinois was more democratic in 1988 than in 2008... Very weird.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I've decided to spotlight some interesting elections from past years. I'll start with:

1988 Results for Chicago:
George H. W. Bush (R): 1,614,245 (49.72%)
Michael Dukakis (D): 1,607,587 (49.51%)
Others: 24,852 (0.77%)

What... Bush carried Chicago ?!? How comes ?

Chicago suburbs used to be very Republican, and even Cook county wasn't as overwhelmingly Democratic as it is today. The only counties in Chicago that Dukakis carried were Cook (55.77%), Kenosha (57.72%), and the Lake in Indiana (56.55%), while suburban counties such as DuPage hovered around 70% for Bush.

But the weird thing is that Illinois was quite close at the time (it went to Bush by only 2 points), so if Dukakis is so poor in Chicago, it means he'd poll quite well in the new Illinois. He probably would have lost by a margin inferior to Bush's national margin, which means Alternate Illinois was more democratic in 1988 than in 2008... Very weird.

I'll look into that later tonight, when I have more time.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

1988 Results for Illinois:

George H. W. Bush (R): 857,894 (51.92%)
Michael Dukakis (D): 785,424 (47.54%)
Others: 8,939 (0.54%)

Interestingly, much of Dukakis's strength in Illinois comes from rural counties in southern and western Illinois where Obama fared rather poorly, while Obama outperformed Dukakis in more urban counties (such as Sangamon and Peoria) and in northwestern Illinois.

[Californian Tony]

Well, Illinois LNPI in 1988 was +3.35, and in 2008 -4.01.

So it means that, contrary to RL Illinois (which trended dem in every single election since 1980), Illinois without Chicago actually had a strong republican trend since 1988. Indeed, probably the general losses of democrats in rural areas can explain this trend.

[Hashemite]

1988 = farm crisis (and Democrats used to be strong in southern Illinois, which was sometimes considered the northern reaches of Dixie, but that had evaporated by 1988)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

1976 Results for Chicago:
Jimmy Carter (D): 1,640,808 (49.08%)
Gerald Ford (R): 1,639,294 (49.03%)
Others: 63,234 (1.89%)

As with Dukakis in 1988, the only counties won by Carter were Cook, Kenosha, and the Lake in Indiana. Ford's margins in the Chicago suburbs were weaker than Bush's in '88, so Carter still managed to carry the state.

1976 Results for Illinois:
Gerald Ford (R): 893,523 (51.44%)
Jimmy Carter (D): 818,979 (47.14%)
Others: 24,666 (1.42%)

As with Dukakis in 1988, Carter was strongest in rural counties in the south and was weakest in the northwest.

[Californian Tony]

North Florida

Made of the most conservative parts of Florida (especially in the North-East), NF would be a strongly republican State. McCain wouldn't have problems to retain the State's 12 EVs in 2008, once again diminishing Obama's edge in the Electoral College. However, the inclusion of a large central part of Florida, less overwhelmingly republican, avoids it to become a republican stronghold.
Tallahassee would remain its capital.

NF county map :


John McCain : 1,949,292 (53.00%) => 12 EVs
Barack Obama : 1,689,042 (45.92%)
Others : 39,684 (1.08%)


LNPI : -14.34 => solid rep.
In terms of LNPI, North florida is right between GA (2 pts more dem) and SC (2 pts more rep). Thus, it's a State which fits quite well with his geographical location, ie what we could call the "coastal deep South", contrary to RL Florida which was a quite unique State in the South. Solidly republican like its neighbours, it would therefore had deprived Obama of its 12 Electoral Votes. However, as Florida was in 2008 (and actually in every election since 1980) more republican than the national margin, it's now almost certain that the split would favor the democrats. With as similar margin, NF has probably taken enough McCain votes to give South Florida and its 17 votes to democrats.

[Californian Tony]

Bump. I'll do SF on either wednesday or thursday, then I think I'll stop this for a while (I haven't enough courage to start with the Texas split...). I however encourage you if you are willing to work on annex subjects, as did Vazdul or once Mechman.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

1964 Results for North Florida:
Barry Goldwater (R) 417,826 (53.30%)
Lyndon Johnson (D) 366,155 (46.70%)
Others: 0 (0.00%)

1964 Results for South Florida:
Lyndon Johnson (D) 582,385 (54.40%)
Barry Goldwater (R) 488,115 (45.60%)
Others: 0 (0.00%)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

1968 Results for North Florida:
George Wallace (Amer. Ind.): 371,558 (40.77%)
Richard Nixon (R): 305,560 (33.53%)
Hubert Humphrey (D): 234,204 (25.70%)
Others: 0 (0.00%)

[A-Bob]

Honestly Colorado would split. The western slope would move to Utah. Denver would become its own city state and the eastern plains would join with Kansas or become their own state. Leaving the eastern mountain region and I-25 corridor as Colorado         

[Nichlemn]

Updates? This is honestly my favourite thread on Atlas

[JulioMadrid]

Updates? This is honestly my favourite thread on Atlas

Yeah, update please. This weird TL is very, very interesting

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Updates? This is honestly my favourite thread on Atlas

Yeah, update please. This weird TL is very, very interesting

[Californian Tony]

All right, so I'll go with the last State I have done. After this one, I won't be able to give you anything new for a while.

South Florida

South Florida would be centered on the big metropolitan areas of Miami (in the South) and Tampa (in the State's northwest), which are heavily democratic. Thus, it's not surprising to see it leaning Dem. Maybe the biggest surprise is the relative weakness of this lean : barely more than IRL Pennsylvania (or MN if you want to take the example of a State that remains the same in this scenario). Perhaps that helps to see that Florida overall remains a strongly Republican State, and that big coastal cities aren't that strong compared to the inland. Still, the fact Obama would win it by 10 points in 2008 is certainly positive for democrats, who would have 17 EVs easily secured.

SF county map :


Barack Obama : 2,593,325 (54.78%) => 17 EVs
John McCain : 2,096,927 (44.30%)
Others : 43,591 (0.92%)


LNPI : +3.22 => lean dem.
As said before, SF is only slightly democrat, and Republicans could stand a fair chance there in neutral political conditions. We could see Bush winning it in 2004 (though my personal guess is that he lost it). But when we go one election earlier, the Florida split becomes a very good deal for Democrats : with his strong standing in Florida, there is no doubt that Gore would win SF handily. That would certainly be enough to almost entirely correct the democrats' structural deficit that cost them the 2000 election. To get back on 2008, we can see a weird thing there : we had a State with 27 Electoral Votes with leaned rep, and once we split it we find a dem leaning 17-EV State and a strongly republican 12-EV State. To put it clearly, the majority of Floridans are republicans but under this split a majority of the State's EVs would go to democrats... Vazdul once said that I was "gerrymandering" States : well, the Florida split is probably what comes closer to a gerrymandering among what I've done. Of course, I still persist in thinking that this split is the best that could be done under demographic criteria. The main problem is that Florida is made of a very conservative and sparsely populated region (NF) and a heavily populated liberal leaning region (SF) which gives a conservative leaning State overall. Separing the two regions makes sense, even though it's far from being a neutral move politically. Thus, we consider the Florida split to bring 17 EVs to the democrat and take 15 to the Republicans.

[Dallasfan65]

Give Rhode Island to Connecticut. We don't want it

[feeblepizza]

Updates? This is honestly my favourite thread on Atlas

Yeah, update please. This weird TL is very, very interesting

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

2004 Results for South Florida:

John Kerry: 2,233,425 (51.20%)
George W. Bush: 2,090,817 (47.93%)
Others: 38,302 (0.87%)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

1960 Results for North Florida:

Richard Nixon: 306,997 (50.07%)
John F. Kennedy: 306,197(49.93%)

1960 Results for South Florida:
Richard Nixon: 488,479 (52.47%)
John F. Kennedy: 442,503 (47.53%)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bump.

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, I ought to continue this some day.

Texas will be long to do, though.

Also, as soon as possible I'll try to give you the 2010 apportionment numbers, since the current list is for 2000.

[JulioMadrid]

=) I'm glad this will be updated

[Fuzzy]

Sweet!