Who will have already announced 1 year from today?

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

And who will have already announced they're not running?

I'll say because the 2012 primaries will start later than the 2008 ones, you'll see slightly more people still deciding in March 2011 than you did in 2007.

I'll say formal announcements:
Romney
Pawlenty
Thune
Johnson
Santorum
Pataki
Perry

Exploratory committees:
Palin
Gingrich
Daniels

Officially passed:
Huckabee
Giuliani
Barbour

[Poundingtherock]

I'll say formal announcements:

Palin
Pawlenty
Thune
Johnson
Santorum

No announcements

Romney (I'll go out on a limb and predict no run)
Barbour
Gingrich
Jeb Bush

Officially passed
Huckabee
Rudy

[Mr. Morden]

I'll say because the 2012 primaries will start later than the 2008 ones

Who says?

In all likelihood, Iowa will once again go in the first week or two of January.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/11/20/huckabee-giuliani-romney-camps-weigh-in-on-2012-primary-calendar/?fbid=2afPWIPIUrn

Beth Myers, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's 2008 campaign manager

Myers did not address the politically sensitive issue of whether Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina should remain as the first contests, but she did suggest a later start for the primary season, which began on January 3 in 2008, the earliest start of any presidential primary season in history.

"The one complaint we heard more than any other was that it started too close to the holidays," she said. "I would urge you to mandate a start in late February or early March.

Former Huckabee presidential campaign manager Chip Saltsman

Saltzman suggested late January as a starting point.

---
http://www.demconwatchblog.com/diary/2972/iowa-gets-boost-to-keep-first-primary

However, he warned the Change Commission recommendation that Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Caroline have their caucuses and primaries beginning Feb. 1 and other states start their delegate selection processes no earlier than March 1 is not the final word.

The recommendations go to the Rules and Bylaws Committee, which next meets in February. Its recommendations will go to the DNC over the summer. State party leaders expect a decision in the fall of 2010, prior to mid-term elections.

Even then, the lineup won’t be set, one party official said. Just as Michigan and Florida ignored the DNC schedule in 2008, some states may choose to jump ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire.

The Change Commission is recommending the DNC offer incentives for states to follow the party calendar by offering, for example, preferred seating and hotel accommodations at national conventions

It's too early to know if they'll succeed but it seems both Ds and Rs are trying to push the season back a month.

[Vepres]

Formal announcements:
Gary Johnson
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Tim Pawlenty
Hayley Barbour

No official statement either way:
Mitch Daniels
Newt Gingrich

Officially passed:
Mike Huckabee
Rudy Giuliani
Eric Cantor

[You kip if you want to...]

Palin
Paul
Romney
Huckabee
Random GOP Extremist Congressman #1
Santorum
Newt

It's still be a 3-way deadlock between Romney-Palin-Huck.

[Mr. Morden]

It's too early to know if they'll succeed but it seems both Ds and Rs are trying to push the season back a month.

Yes, I'm aware of their efforts, but they're going to fail.  There are about 20 states which, according to current state law, are voting in the first week of Feb.  Good luck with trying to get them all to move.  As long as any of them are voting in early Feb., and as long as Florida is the week before, SC will go a week earlier, NH will go a week earlier than that, and IA will go a week earlier than that.  The only way to get them to move is if you penalize them by stripping away all their delegates, and the RNC has shown absolutely no interest in going that far.

Also, the start time of the primary season isn't necessarily known at the time that people are announcing their candidacies.  As of January 2007, it was still thought that Iowa might be voting in mid-January rather than early January.  In any case, in the 2008 cycle, virtually everyone had already announced their intentions by the end of January 2007.  Even if things are shifted a month later, the 2012ers should pretty much all have announced what they're doing by mid-March 2011.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Okay, sounds right.  But I'd say one major potential exception is Palin because her behavior is completely erratic (always what you want in a president) and her power to attract press is strong enough to give her the option of starting later than everyone else with less damage.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, I agree. Palin doesn't follow the same rules as everyone else, so she's going to string this out forever, no matter what her decision is.

[nhmagic]

Romney pretty much announced today without saying it.  - He really means "my campaign begins today".

A Campaign Begins Today   [Mitt Romney]


America has just witnessed an unconscionable abuse of power. President Obama has betrayed his oath to the nation — rather than bringing us together, ushering in a new kind of politics, and rising above raw partisanship, he has succumbed to the lowest denominator of incumbent power: justifying the means by extolling the ends. He promised better; we deserved better.

He calls his accomplishment “historic” — in this he is correct, although not for the reason he intends. Rather, it is an historic usurpation of the legislative process — he unleashed the nuclear option, enlisted not a single Republican vote in either chamber, bribed reluctant members of his own party, paid-off his union backers, scapegoated insurers, and justified his act with patently fraudulent accounting. What Barack Obama has ushered into the American political landscape is not good for our country; in the words of an ancient maxim, “what starts twisted, ends twisted.”

His health-care bill is unhealthy for America. It raises taxes, slashes the more private side of Medicare, installs price controls, and puts a new federal bureaucracy in charge of health care. It will create a new entitlement even as the ones we already have are bankrupt. For these reasons and more, the act should be repealed. That campaign begins today.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Using 60 votes to break a filibuster (the bill that has so far passed) is an abuse of presidential power?  What's funny is I never suspected Romney of at one time abusing his power as governor until he came out against it.

[Poundingtherock]

My money is on Palin announcing the earliest (with the exception of Johnson)....meaning in January of 2011 at the latest.

[Progressive]

My money is on Palin announcing the earliest (with the exception of Johnson)....meaning in January of 2011 at the latest.

I agree 100%, I think that Palin and Santorum are the two most eager candidates.

[RosettaStoned]

Romney, Huckabee and Palin.

[xavier110]

I expect Palin to be the last one to throw the hat in the ring. She'll wait it out and then stomp her way in. I think it's her best strategy.

[A-Bob]

I'll say formal announcements:
Romney
Pawlenty
Johnson
Santorum
Perry

Exploratory committees:
Palin
Gingrich
Daniels
Pataki
Giuliani
Barbour
Thune
GOP Congressman (Pence, King)

Officially passed:
Huckabee
McDonnell

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

3 Palin scenarios.

1. She intends to run.  She'll announce timed to help generate publcity for her TV show and book.

2. She's decided not to and will wait as late as Fall of 2011 to say so for the reasons above.

3. She's  undecided but because of her fame can wait as late as Fall 2011 to decide.

[Mr. Morden]

1. She intends to run.  She'll announce timed to help generate publcity for her TV show and book.

Hmmm....I'm actually wondering if Discovery will drop her TV show if she becomes a candidate.  Might there not be thorny campaign finance issues involved in airing her show while she's running for office?

[ScottM]

Johnson (Probably the first to announce. He really has no reason to even wait until 2011.)
Pawlenty
Romney (Wants it so bad he can taste it.)
Santorum
Thune

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

1. She intends to run.  She'll announce timed to help generate publcity for her TV show and book.

Hmmm....I'm actually wondering if Discovery will drop her TV show if she becomes a candidate.  Might there not be thorny campaign finance issues involved in airing her show while she's running for office?

No chance.  A lot or all of the show will be finished by then and many millions of dollars already paid.  Their lawyers will find them a way around the problem that doesn't involve scrapping the show.