PVI for New England Towns

[homelycooking]

I have been working on a rating system very similar to Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index, which is used for congressional districts, and applying it to New England towns. It is calculated in the same way, but the average of the town's previous two election returns is compared against its state's averaged results. It is, to say the least, very time consuming to calculate PVIs for the almost 2000 New England towns, but so far, I have calculated and mapped PVIS for CT, MA and RI and currently am working on VT. The scale on the map is vague (bright blue=R+10+, light blue, R+0-R+9, light red, D+0-D+9, bright red D+10+), but if you'd like to know exact PVIs for any towns, I'd be happy to give you the information.

Update: New England is complete. The map is beautiful.

[Vasall des Midas]

What's with the D cluster in far northwestern CT?

[homelycooking]

Those are very small, rural towns (Salisbury, Cornwall, Sharon) that are much more in line with the politics of Western Massachusetts than the rest of Litchfield County. Cornwall is the most Democratic small town in Connecticut (D+14)

[Cubby]

What's with the D cluster in far northwestern CT?

Those towns have wealthy New York City residents who either have vacation/weekend homes or move there when they retire. They are fiscally conservative but socially liberal. There are lots of places in NY and CT that voted for Bush in '92, Dole in '96, some even Bush in 2000 but have taken a hard left turn in the last 3 elections at the Presidential level. In 2004 Kerry lost Litchfield County because of a bigger swing to Bush in the larger suburban/working class towns like Torrington, New Milford and Watertown. Those 3 towns together have about half the county's population. The strongly Democratic towns are very tiny and were outvoted.

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/4802/newenglandpvi.png

Thats a great map.

I wonder why Plymouth and Worcester Counties are the most Republican in Massachusetts generally. Plymouth doesn't have the working class areas that Bristol does, but that doesn't explain all of it. If its a wealth thing, then Barnstable and Dukes (Martha's Vineyard) would be more GOP than Plymouth I think.

[homelycooking]

Thats a great map.

Let's make it better, shall we?

Here's the PVI for CT, RI, MA and now VT.

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/4802/newenglandpvi.png

[Hashemite]

What's the hard-Dem area in Windham County, VT?

[Former Moderate]

I wonder why Plymouth and Worcester Counties are the most Republican in Massachusetts generally. Plymouth doesn't have the working class areas that Bristol does, but that doesn't explain all of it. If its a wealth thing, then Barnstable and Dukes (Martha's Vineyard) would be more GOP than Plymouth I think.

It is generally a wealth thing, yes -- at least in Plymouth. Worcester County is just plain culturally conservative. If you're looking for a gun-toting, pro-life voter, that's the place to look. (Just don't expect the voter to cast a ballot for local Republicans.)

Still, Massachusetts is changing. Wealth is becoming less and less a predictor of performance. Scott Brown and Mitt Romney alike did well in blue collar (culturally conservative!) old industrial towns, but not quite as well as one'd expect in the wealthiest parts of Metrowest.

It's important to note that the Cape is far more conservative in summer months than in the winter. The people who live there all year round are not unusally wealthy, and there's a very strong GLBT presence there besides.

[The Head Beagle]

Great work; interesting stuff.

What's the hard-Dem area in Windham County, VT?

This is the area around Brattleboro; the wikipedia entry for the town gives the general idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brattleboro,_Vermont

[homelycooking]

It's important to note that the Cape is far more conservative in summer months than in the winter. The people who live there all year round are not unusally wealthy, and there's a very strong GLBT presence there besides.

As a general rule, the further out you go on Cape Cod, the more Democratic it gets. Provincetown, the town farthest out, is, to say the least, fabulous. The PVI is D+26.

PVIs for New Hampshire tomorrow.

[homelycooking]

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/4802/newenglandpvi.png

All states now except Maine.

[Derek]

I'm not letting my eyes look at something like that. I'll take your words for it lol.

[hcallega]

I'm not letting my eyes look at something like that. I'll take your words for it lol.

Fail. There are more GOP PVI towns than Democrats. The idea being the towns compared to the states as a whole. Therefore, someplace like the Worcester suburbs would be more Republican than Democratic.

[homelycooking]

PVIs for Maine on Tuesday.

[Dallasfan65]

http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/4802/newenglandpvi.png

All states now except Maine.

I was almost sure my town would very slightly lean Republican.

[homelycooking]

It's finally all done. That was a solid fifteen hours of work.

[Cubby]

Thanks for making that 

New Hampshire has less dark blue (strong Republican) towns and Southern Maine has more light blue (weak Republican) towns than I would have thought. Do you take Senate elections into account? Because Snowe and Collins's recent landslides would make Maine seem more Republican than it is at the presidential level. New Hampshire is the GOP's best state in New England.

[homelycooking]

The PVIs are based on presidential elections only.

NH has few strong Republican towns because overall the state is more Republican than any other in New England. An R+10 town in NH must be about 41% Democratic, based on the average of the previous two election results, while an R+10 in Vermont is about 53% Democratic. Most southern Maine towns are between R+3 and R+8, or between 52% Democratic and 47% Democratic. It all depends on how liberal/conservative each town is compared to the state as a whole.

[shua]

nice map. is there simply not enough data for NW Maine?

[homelycooking]

nice map. is there simply not enough data for NW Maine?

There is no data because no one lives in those areas!

[Vasall des Midas]

The fact that it compares by state makes the map somewhat confusing (Cubby fell victim to it). Maybe a map comparing to the regional av next?

[homelycooking]

Actually, I could compare all towns to the total New England av rather easily. This I can do within a day.