2008: The Election of Willard "Mitt" Romney

[tmthforu94]

This is a mini-timeline I will be doing, that will start in early 2007, and end on Election Day, 2008. It's just my idea of a scenario on how a President Romney could have happened. Things will mainly stay on course with how they actually happened, but there will be a few changes here and there, that will eventually lead to Mitt Romney's election as President. This timeline will focus heavily on the Republican primaries, but there will be a few posts on the Democratic side as well.

[Bo]

I look forward to reading it. I think the financial crisis has to be postponed until after the election if any GOPer was to win in 2008.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

I'm excited to see this!

As for the financial crisis, I think Mitt might have been able to take the cake if he doesn't make the "fundamentals of the economy are strong" remark and if Mitt can prove that he has the business experience necessary to lead America out of the recession.

[tmthforu94]

Heading into March, 2007, here is a list of the candidates that have already declared that they will be running for President...

Democrats:
Senator Joseph Biden of Deleware
Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska
Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut
Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Senator Hillary Clinton of New York
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois

Senator and Former First Lady Hillary Clinton is seen as the favorite in the Democratic Primary

Republicans:
Representative Duncan Hunter of California
Senator John McCain of Arizona
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York
Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado
Representative Ron Paul of Texas
Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas

Mayor Rudy Giuliani is believed to be the early favorite to win the Republican primary

[RIP Robert H Bork]

No thank you!

[tmthforu94]

No thank you!

No one is forcing you to read this. Although, you did come to mind when I came up with the idea.

[Devilman88]

Well, good luck with it.

[ej2mm15]

Look foward to reading this TL.

[tmthforu94]

March 11th, 2007: On Fox news, Former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee states that he may consider running for President.

March 22nd, 2007: After finding out that his wife, Elizabeth, had breast cancer, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina announces that he will not be seeking the Presidency.

While this decision was uncomfortable to make, I must put my wife and my family first right now. While a Presidential run may be on the horizon, now is not the time.
- Senator John Edwards

John Edwards will not seek the Democratic nomination.

April 26th, 2007: Former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia announces he will seek the Republican nomination.

May 3rd, 2007: CNBC airs a Republican debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. The emphasis of the debate was the Iraq war. A poll held after the debate showed that McCain performed the best in the debate, with 26% favoring him to Giuliani's 21%.

May 14th, 2007: On ABC news, former Speaker Newt Gingrich states that there is a strong possibility he will run for President.

Could Newt Gingrich be the next President of the United States?

[hawkeye59]

Could Newt Gingrich be the next President of the United States?

Based on the title of the thread, no.

[Bo]

Could Newt Gingrich be the next President of the United States?

Based on the title of the thread, no.

Don't spoil it.

[tmthforu94]

May 20th, 2007: The Georgia Republican Convention straw poll is held. 44% voted for Fred Thompson.

June 13th, 2007: Encouraged by polling numbers, Senator Fred Thompson announces he will run for President of the United States.

Fred Thompson will run for President

July 2nd, 2007: Facing severe financial problems, Republican candidate John McCain fires over a hundred campaign staffers. John Weaver and Terry Nelson, McCain's chief strategist and campaign manager are also fired.

July 15th, 2007: Facing falling poll numbers and lack of finances, John McCain officially suspends his campaign.

July 19th, 2007: Speaker Newt Gingrich formally announces that he will be seeking the Republican nomination.

July 22nd, 2007: All Democratic candidates debate in Des Moine, Iowa, with the focus being on health care. Senator Hillary Clinton is seen by 37% as the winner in the debate, followed by Senator Barack Obama and Senator Joseph Biden.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Have you read this?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=113650.0

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The easiest path for Romney to win would be Rudy staying in NH splitting the Indies with McCain and Thompson staying alive atleast in Iowa splitting the Evangelicals with Huck or at least preventing him from rising as much as he did, or having Brownback stay in would have kept both him and Huck in the teens like they were in Sept 2007 prior his dropping out.

I think this take is interesting however. McCain dropping out ads a twist as does Newt's entry.

[tmthforu94]

August 9th, 2007: The Human Rights Campaign sponsors a Democratic forum on LGBT issues in Los Angeles, California. Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich are seen as the strongest candidates on the issue.

August 11th, 2007: The Ames Straw Poll is won by Mitt Romney, who received just over 30% of the vote.

August 15th, 2007: Pew Research comes out with a national poll in both the Republican and Democratic races.

Republicans:
Representative Duncan Hunter - <1%
Mayor Rudy Giuliani - 24%
Former Governor Tommy Thompson - 7%
Former Governor Mitt Romney - 13%
Senator Sam Brownback - 2%
Representative Tom Tancredo - 1%
Representative Ron Paul - 2%
Former Governor Mike Huckabee - 6%
Former Governor Jim Gilmore - 8%
Former Senator Fred Thompson - 19%
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich - 9%
Undecided - 7%

Democrats:
Senator Joseph Biden - 6%
Former Senator Mike Gravel - <1%
Senator Christopher Dodd - 2%
Governor Tom Vilsack -3%
Senator Evan Bayh - 7%
Representative Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Governor Bill Richardson - 6%
Senator Hillary Clinton - 37%
Senator Barack Obama - 22%
Undecided - 15%

August 16th, 2007: Discouraged by low polling numbers, Senator Christopher Dodd drops out of the Democratic race.

September 27th, 2007: PBS hosts a Republican debate at Morgan State University in Baltimore, Maryland. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are seen as the winners of the debate.

September 29th, 2007: Mitt Romney announces he will loan his campaign about 10 million dollars.

September 30th, 2007: Sam Brownback is endorsed by the National Right to Life. Many expected the organization to endorse Fred Thompson, who has a perfect pro-life voting record and is seen as a more viable candidate.

Could an NRLC endorsement propell Brownback to the top?

[tmthforu94]

October 9th, 2007: Facing sagging poll numbers and poor fundraising, former Governor Tommy Thompson drops out of the Presidential race and endorses Rudy Giuliani.

October 13th, 2007: Former Governor Mitt Romney begins airing ads in all lead-off states. He is the first candidate to do so. Rudy Giuliani has been putting most of his energy into Florida, and has also spent some time in South Carolina. Romney currently has a lead in Iowa, but Brownback and Thompson aren't far behind.

November 5th, 2007:Ron Paul raises the most money on a single day of any Republican candidate to date with $4.3 million. Paul begins running ads in New Hampshire and Nevada.

November 15th, 2007: Senator Barack Obama announces that television host Oprah Winfrey, who had previously endorsed Obama, will begin campaigning with him.

What impact will Oprah campaigning have on the race?

November 21st, 2007: Former Governor Mike Huckabee makes his first attack on Governor Romney's religion, and questions the Governor's way of lifestyle. Romney's response...
Well, I'm not sure why Mr. Huckabee is attacking me on morality. I've had one wife, Anne, and unlike an opponent of mine, that's the only one I have had. He's got the wrong guy, really.
- Governor Mitt Romney

[ej2mm15]

Keep it up!

[tmthforu94]

December 6th, 2007: Former Governor Mitt Romney delivers an address on his faith and religion in the United States at the George Bush Presidential Library, which was broadcasted on several cable news networks.

December 7th, 2007: Iowa polling shows that Mitt Romney is in front, with Thompson, Brownback, and Huckabee about five points behind. Senator Sam Brownback announces that he will be spending the rest of the month in Iowa. On the Democratic side, it is a dead heat between Clinton and Obama.

December 13th, 2007: Potential candidate John Edwards and his wife officially endorse Barack Obama for President. They promise to campaign for Obama in South Carolina.

December 16th, 2007: Ron Paul raises more than $6 million through online donations in 24 hours, breaking his own record of $4.3 million to become the highest figure ever raised in a day. He has begun flooding the airwaves in lead-off states.

December 18th, 2007: Former Vice Presidential candidate Joseph Lieberman says he will not make an endorsement until after the primary season is over. When asked which party he would most likely back, he responded that he would back whichever party had the best candidate up.

December 20th, 2007: Congressman Tom Tancredo announces that he will be suspending his candidacy. He throws his support behind former Governor Mitt Romney.

What impact will Tom Tancredo's endorsement have on the race?

January 2nd, 2008: Almost all candidates are spending the last day before the Iowa caucus in Iowa. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has decided to skip Iowa, and is focusing heavily on Florida. All Democrat's are campaigning in Iowa. Governor Vilsack, who is currently running right behind Clinton and Obama, announces that a loss in Iowa will be the end of his campaign.

[tmthforu94]

January 3rd, 2008: The Iowa Republican and Democratic caucuses are held. On the Republican side, Former Governor Mitt Romney has been declared the winner, recieving 31% of the vote. Brownback finished in second with 23%, while Thompson had 20%, followed by Gingrich.. On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama barely edged out Tom Vilsack, who suprised many by beating Clinton for second.

Will Romney be able to carry this momentum all the way to the end?

That night, Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore both drop out on the Republican side. Hunter endorsed Governor Romney, while Gilmore said he would make his announcement in the coming weeks. On the Democratic side, Senator Joseph Biden drops out of the race, making no endorsement.

[Psychic Octopus]

How did Vilsack, a Governor of Iowa, manage to lose Iowa?

[tmthforu94]

How did Vilsack, a Governor of Iowa, manage to lose Iowa?

Obama obviously has more charisma that Vilsack, and also had a lot more cash than Vilsack had. Vilsack didn't win any debates or come close, and didn't have the endorsements that Obama had. If Iowa had voted on Super Tuesday, Vilsack would have won, as Obama or Clinton wouldn't have spent nearly as much time or money there.

[Psychic Octopus]

How did Vilsack, a Governor of Iowa, manage to lose Iowa?

Obama obviously has more charisma that Vilsack, and also had a lot more cash than Vilsack had. Vilsack didn't win any debates or come close, and didn't have the endorsements that Obama had. If Iowa had voted on Super Tuesday, Vilsack would have won, as Obama or Clinton wouldn't have spent nearly as much time or money there.

He still was a relatively popular governor of the state, and cash doesn't really matter in Iowa (Romney vs. Huckabee, for example), personal appeal does.

I'll be quiet now, though, please continue.

[tmthforu94]

January 5th, 2008: The Wyoming Republican caucus is won by Mitt Romney. Facebook hosts a Republican debate at Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are seen as the winner's in the debate.

January 8th, 2008: Mitt Romney edges out Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul in New Hampshire, winning just over 35% of the vote. On the Democratic side, Hillary proves the polls wrong, winning over Obama by 3 points.

Later that evening, Governor Bill Richardson drops out of the race. On the Republican side, Jim Gilmore drops out of the race, and endorses Mitt romney for President.

Remaining Candidates:
Republicans
Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Former Governor Mitt Romney
Senator Sam Brownback
Representative Ron Paul
Former Governor Mike Huckabee
Former Senator Fred Thompson
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich


Democrats:
Former Senator Mike Gravel
Governor Tom Vilsack
Senator Evan Bayh
Representative Dennis Kucinich
Senator Hillary Clinton
Senator Barack Obama

January 10th, 2008: Senator Evan Bayh drops his Presidential bid, citing lack of momentum. He endorses Senator Hillary Clinton for President.

Senator Bayh can't gain momentum, and endorses Clinton.

January 15th, 2008: The Michigan Democratic primary is easily won by Hillary Clinton, though no delegates were awarded. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney won his fourth straight contest, beating Thompson and Giuliani by about 5 points.

Later that night, Governor Mike Huckabee drops out of the Presidential race.

[tmthforu94]

January 19th, 2008: The Nevada Democratic caucus is won by Hillary Clinton. The Republican caucus is won by Mitt Romney. In South Carolina,  Newt Gingrich defeats Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson by 2 points, with Mitt Romney in a distant fourth.

That night, Fred Thompson drops out of the Presidential race. Sam Brownback also withdraws, and endorses Newt Gingrich. This leaves the race down to Giuliani, Romney, and Gingrich.

Mitt, Newt, or Rudy?

January 22nd, 2008: Dennis Kucinich drops out of the race, and endorses Barack Obama. This leaves the Democratic nomination down to Gravel, Clinton, Obama, and Vilsack.

Mike, Hillary, Barack, or Tom?

January 25th, 2008: The Hawaii Republican caucus is won by Mitt Romney.

January 26th, 2008: Barack Obama wins the South Carolina primary, beating Clinton by ten points. That evening, Tom Vilsack drops out of the race.

January 29th, 2008: The Florida Republican primary is won by Rudy Giuliani. The race was a three-way split, and many credit Rudy's win to being the only real moderate candidate left, as well as his early campaign efforts there. Hillary wins the Democratic primary, though no delegate are awarded.

Florida Republican Primary Results
Rudy Giuliani: 35.4%
Mitt Romney: 32.8%
Newt Gingrich: 31.8%

Going into Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney is seen having a slight edge, though Rudy and Newt are not far behind...

Will Mitt Romney be able to seal the nomination on Super Tuesday?

[tmthforu94]

February 2nd, 2008: The Maine Republican caucus is won by Mitt Romney.

Maine Republican Caucus Results:
Mitt Romney: 41.56%
Rudy Giuliani: 38.96%
Newt Gingrich: 19.48%

February 3rd, 2008: National polls are released for both parties, suggesting that Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are leading their respective parties.

National Republican Poll:
Mitt Romney: 31%
Rudy Giuliani:  28%
Newt Gingrich: 27%
Undecided: 14%

National Democratic Poll:
Hillary Clinton: 42%
Barack Obama: 35%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Undecided: 22%