"Sleeper" House Seats

[Mr.Phips]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

You gotta be kidding me.  That district is majority Hispanic and Hispanics strongly oppose the law.

[nhmagic]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

I didnt say it was winnable, I posed a hypothetical.

[The Mikado]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

[Lunar]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

I never realized his district was only D+6, he's such an outspoken member of the Progressive Caucus.

But his district is majority-Hispanic and less than 40% white.  McCain got less than 42% in '08 and he had a home-state advantage here.  How many districts in which McCain got less than 42% in are vulnerable?  McCain did about as well in this district as he did in the entire state of New Jersey.

[Hashemite]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

quote:
"It really isn't funny letting a Hispanic Politician make a TAX Monkey out of you!"

wtf

[Lunar]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

http://www.josephsweeneyforcongress.org/

Holy Hell, is he running in 1998 or 2010?

quote:
"It really isn't funny letting a Hispanic Politician make a TAX Monkey out of you!"

wtf

ofmg, that's like the LEADING quote on his website!!

No one like that has a chance in a majority [not plurality] Hispanic district.

I looked at the animated clock on his website, I thought it was like a debt counter like many websites us, but no, it's actually a second-accurate military-format 24-hour clock.  What purpose does that serve?

[Lunar]

omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

Or check out his fundraising graphic, where he's raised $0 out of $0 dollars and apparently he ends his fundraising 21 days after the 2010 general election is finished, November 23rd

[Lunar]

omfg, and look at the picture they use for him in the upper right!  It looks like an attack website but IT'S NOT

I tried to get to his biography page, but it was a corrupted .pdf file. 

[Lunar]

I think this is a better challenger:

http://www.ruth4az.com/

Not only does she have a website that's only bad instead of god-awful-disgusting, but her website has this important graphic on the homepage:

[redcommander]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

[Lunar]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

D+26%.  That's more Democratic that Joseph Cao's district, which he only barely won because he was in an extremely low-turnout runoff election against an opponent who was caught with $30,000 in his freezer.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

I highly doubt he has any paid staff. Ruth McClung is the only Republican in AZ-07 that's filed any FEC reports, and she's raised all of $23k (over 9 months, and a lot of it looks like in-kinds). She does have a campaign manager, who appears to be donating her time. Her husband appears to have done the website (also donated).

[Torie]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess.  So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.

[Lunar]

omfg, has anyone on his staff even seen the website?  Click on the numbered tabs featured in the menu navigation.  

I highly doubt he has any paid staff. Ruth McClung is the only Republican in AZ-07 that's filed any FEC reports, and she's raised all of $23k (over 9 months, and a lot of it looks like in-kinds). She does have a campaign manager, who appears to be donating her time. Her husband appears to have done the website (also donated).

Well, needless to say, no one will with a Congressional Seat without staff or a horribly scandal-tarred opponent. 

[Lunar]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess.  So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.

Not sure about the electorate, but they are 25% of the demographics of the district per the last census.  It's less than 17% white though, so there's no mathematical way possible for a Republican to win that district.  Joseph Cao's district in Louisiana is about twice as white

[Torie]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess.  So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.

Not sure about the electorate, but they are 25% of the demographics of the district per the last census.  It's less than 17% white though, so there's no mathematical way possible for a Republican to win that district.  Joseph Cao's district in Louisiana is about twice as white

The black voting percentage is substantially higher than 25%, since Hispanics tend not to vote much, particularly in this district, where the Hispanic neighborhoods are mostly downscale, and the Asians there would be about in the same category, more or less (outside the Japanese in Gardena maybe). It is no accident that blacks still win in this district in Dem primaries. 40% strikes me as a reasonable guess. And among the whites, there are a considerable number of gays down in Long Beach.

[cinyc]

I can't think of many sleeper House seats in SoCal. 

I suppose Loretta Sanchez's CA-47 will be on the Republicans' radar, as it always is, and her opponent, Assemblyman Van Tran, seems to be relatively well-funded for a Republican challenger in SoCal - but Sanchez always seems to win by large margins, despite the hype. 

CA-51 (Filner) would be a real longshot that's probably not on anyone's radar.  His opponent is a retired Marine with a good backstory - but at least so far, little cash.   Unemployment is really high in parts of the district, though, which could be worth a few points.  But I doubt Popaditch can pull it out.

Every other SoCal district currently represented by a Democrat seems too Gerrymandered to possibly flip.  And even if they weren't Gerrymandered, the Republican who had some money lost the primary in CA-27 (Sherman), and the Republican opponents in CA-29 (Schiff) and CA-36 (Harmon) don't seem to be well-funded.  All three districts voted for Schwartzenegger, but have PVIs in the low teens - and probably are not winnable by Republicans on the federal level.

[Torie]

CA 47 is the only one vaguely possible, as a sleeper seat. I notice that Whitman is only running about 10% behind Brown with Hispanics in the Field poll, and Hispanics in OC tend to be more conservative anyway, than those up the road in LA. The Asians in this district tend to be Vietnamese, and heavily GOP.

But then Linda tends to avoid trying to be a flame thrower.

[Dgov]

Raul Grijalva.  The most prominent opponent of the Arizona Law, running in a district that almost certainly supports it and covers the most affected area.

You gotta be kidding me.  That district is majority Hispanic and Hispanics strongly oppose the law.

Umm, no.  In fact, significantly more Hispanics want a version of this law in their state than voted for McCain in 08. (37 compared to 29).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1460&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

And the law has had almost no change in partisan voting trends for any ethnic group, despite how many people want to shout from the bleachers that this will "Doom the Republican's chances of Hispanic support"

http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=358597&CategoryId=12395

So throw in that this district covers the Pinal country region the Drug cartels have more or less taken over by force, and that he's been calling for people to boycott his own state over the issue, and i certainly see this as a sleeper pickup for the Republicans in 2010.

[Senator Sbane]

CA 47 is the only one vaguely possible, as a sleeper seat. I notice that Whitman is only running about 10% behind Brown with Hispanics in the Field poll, and Hispanics in OC tend to be more conservative anyway, than those up the road in LA. The Asians in this district tend to be Vietnamese, and heavily GOP.

But then Linda tends to avoid trying to be a flame thrower.

The last sentence is the reason why she won't lose. If she was a liberal, she might have some problems but she legislates as a moderate Democrat. This is a district full of moderate Hispanics (maybe conservative on social issues but certainly not on things like health care for example) and a bunch of hyper Republican Vietnamese (but not necessarily amongst the younger, more Americanized generation). If the Republicans ran a moderate Hispanic here they might have a chance. But I don't think a moderate will make it through a Republican primary for at least the next 10 years (hopefully they will learn their lesson by that time).

[So the Heroes Fall]

CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!

You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.

Star Parker is not anymore a strong candidate than Michael Moore would be if he moved to AL-06 and ran there. Being a far right activist is not an advantage in that district, not that it really matters what anyone is if they have an "R" next to their name. It's already been established above that seat is essentially mathematically unwinnable. I think it's worth noting that in Cao's seat black turnout fell through the floor in the runoff round where Cao won.

[cinyc]

You can cross NY-18 off of the list, now that the self-funded guy with some money who had a small chance of knocking off Nita Lowey announced he's out of the race.  The Republicans are putting up the guy who got crushed last cycle - and he'll lose again by double digits.

To finish California, in NorCal, CA-11 (McNerry) ought to be competitive and isn't really much of a sleeper since it is a R+1 district that Bush won in 2004.  The only NorCal sleeper may be CA-18 (Cardoza), a D+4 district in the Central Valley - though I don't have much faith in a candidate whose website is down, even if he can self-fund to some extent.

There actually may be more Republican incumbents in danger in California than Democrats.

[Senator Sbane]

You can cross NY-18 off of the list, now that the self-funded guy with some money who had a small chance of knocking off Nita Lowey announced he's out of the race.  The Republicans are putting up the guy who got crushed last cycle - and he'll lose again by double digits.

To finish California, in NorCal, CA-11 (McNerry) ought to be competitive and isn't really much of a sleeper since it is a R+1 district that Bush won in 2004.  The only NorCal sleeper may be CA-18 (Cardoza), a D+4 district in the Central Valley - though I don't have much faith in a candidate whose website is down, even if he can self-fund to some extent.

There actually may be more Republican incumbents in danger in California than Democrats.

CA-11 is certainly no sleeper. Republicans have a good chance of picking it up (although it's less than 50% imo).

CA-18 is another one of those moderate Hispanic heavy districts that Republicans should be able to pick up in theory. But you need a good candidate to win this sort of district. Another thing going in Cardoza's favor is the issue of delta water pumping restrictions becoming less of a concern now that we have had a pretty wet winter.

[redcommander]

You would think that with a Diverse statewide ticket, the Republican Party in California could have gotten some more viable and diverse candidates to run.

[cinyc]

You would think that with a Diverse statewide ticket, the Republican Party in California could have gotten some more viable and diverse candidates to run.

Blatant Gerrymandering makes very few seats held by Democrats competitive in California.  CA-23 is a joke, almost on par with FL-22 and 23.

I'd have added the Fresno-area's CA-20 (Costa) to the list of possible sleepers if the Republican candidate did a slightly better job at fundraising and didn't face a primary battle.  It's a Hispanic-majority D+5 district that Schwartzenegger won - winnable in a wave election in theory, but probably not in practice.