US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Torie]

Isn't my matrix chart just awesome Mike?  I should copyright it! 

The scientist in me is curious as to how accurate the 2008 to PVI conversion is in general. Have you tested it on a state with both available?

The other part of "both" being what?  The short answer is no, but I do adjust on a state by state basis, and sometimes for particular regions, looking at a wider range of data (e.g., AZ of course, and I did it with OH-06 as well as a mental exercise). I don't trust state office races for this exercise by the way. My bragging about the chart was more about its design.  I like good design. It is in my genes. My Dad when he was in advertising was awesome at it.

Oh, I also look at the trends from 2004 to 2008, and ask myself why. Well the GOP trend in SW PA hold, or substantially hold,  for example, is a question I ask myself.

[muon2]

Isn't my matrix chart just awesome Mike?  I should copyright it! 

The scientist in me is curious as to how accurate the 2008 to PVI conversion is in general. Have you tested it on a state with both available?

The other part of "both" being what?  The short answer is no, but I do adjust on a state by state basis, and sometimes for particular regions, looking at a wider range of data (e.g., AZ of course, and I did it with OH-06 as well as a mental exercise). I don't trust state office races for this exercise by the way. My bragging about the chart was more about its design.  I like good design. It is in my genes. My Dad when he was in advertising was awesome at it.

Oh, I also look at the trends from 2004 to 2008, and ask myself why. Well the GOP trend in SW PA hold, or substantially hold,  for example, is a question I ask myself.

I decided to make a quick check against my neutral map. In particular, my CD 9 and CD 11 are each almost exactly 3 counties and I can look up the county totals from our favorite Atlas. Using the conventional PVI they are D+4.5 and R+14.0. From the Torie approximation they are D+4.5 and R+13.0. The difference reflects the shifts from 2004 to 2008 in the baseline.

[Torie]

Isn't my matrix chart just awesome Mike?  I should copyright it!  

The scientist in me is curious as to how accurate the 2008 to PVI conversion is in general. Have you tested it on a state with both available?

The other part of "both" being what?  The short answer is no, but I do adjust on a state by state basis, and sometimes for particular regions, looking at a wider range of data (e.g., AZ of course, and I did it with OH-06 as well as a mental exercise). I don't trust state office races for this exercise by the way. My bragging about the chart was more about its design.  I like good design. It is in my genes. My Dad when he was in advertising was awesome at it.

Oh, I also look at the trends from 2004 to 2008, and ask myself why. Well the GOP trend in SW PA hold, or substantially hold,  for example, is a question I ask myself.

I decided to make a quick check against my neutral map. In particular, my CD 9 and CD 11 are each almost exactly 3 counties and I can look up the county totals from our favorite Atlas. Using the conventional PVI they are D+4.5 and R+14.0. From the Torie approximation they are D+4.5 and R+13.0. The difference reflects the shifts from 2004 to 2008 in the baseline.

Not much difference there at all for those two CD's it seems, if I am comprehending your text correctly.

Anyway, given that Obama is running again, for 2012 I think 2008 should be given far more weight. But yes, for example, Lancaster County had just a massive trend to Obama, and then swung totally back and then a bit to Toomey (Toomey is a particularly good POTUS stand-in for this purpose). So, mentally, when I look at the rather thin PVI per 2008 numbers for PA-16, I know that for practical purposes an adjustment is in order. But such massive trends do suggest volatility, which is in and of itself a consideration. Shuster's CD (the old one more than the new one) just cranks out the GOP numbers like a machine in contrast.

There is no magic bullet here. Judgment is required. Who knew?  For example my CD moved massively to Obama, but the impact on down ballet races was minimal, and yes, 2010 was snap back city there too. So one "depreciates" the trend there. The CD has a lot of Torie voters, relatively speaking (higher income and more secular, but "biased" towards capitalism and free markets as it were). Politics can be complicated.

[Keystone Phil]

When the 7th district looks like a fish having sex with a cat (they aren't even connected, mind you)

Actually, while it looks like they aren't connected at one point, they are.

[Vasall des Midas]

When the 7th district looks like a fish having sex with a cat (they aren't even connected, mind you), it's a problem. When a tilt D state has a 2:1 GOP advantage in Congress, it's a problem.

I agree that the map is over the top. However, so is the IL Dem gerrymander.

I still hold that Dems actually left two seats on the table in Illinois (they could never have been safe, of course, nor some others as a result. But they'd not be current incumbents, so what does it matter?) They left half a seat on the table in Pennsylvania.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Pitts isn't exactly safe since he's a dick

He rates as "a dick" on the BRTD Index. Watch out, Congressman.

The best part of your stupid post (pardon the redundancy) is where you admit that you don't even know much about the guy.

He makes some pretty far right votes for the district.  In a wave year, yes I could see this seat in D hands.  Funny how I called a PA-7 shift westward.  Didn't think they'd expose Pitts THIS much.  And who would have thought at one point PA 8 AND 13 would be in D hands for 4 years?  The GOP now does not have at least one seat totally safe east of Harrisburg.  Pitts will surely have stronger challenges from here on out.

[Keystone Phil]

Funny how I called a PA-7 shift westward.

Everyone called that.

 

And who would have thought at one point PA 8 AND 13 would be in D hands for 4 years?

Uh...that takes a lot of nerve to say PA 8 will be in your hands in four years. First of all, the district just got more Republican. Secondly, you guys don't have much of a bench up there. At best, it's a toss up.

 

The GOP now does not have at least one seat totally safe east of Harrisburg.  Pitts will surely have stronger challenges from here on out.

This could be one of the most delusional posts of the year. Marino and Barletta are safe and Dent is pretty close to safe.

[Keystone Phil]

In a very surprising move, Christiana has announced that he won't run for Congress in PA 12. Looks like Turzai might want it. Otherwise, it looks likely that we will see Altmire vs. Rothfus again (assuming Altmire wins the primary).

[krazen1211]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Showdown-expected-in-PA-House-over-new-Congressional-map.html


Brady and U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Allegheny, in exchange for concessions in that map that helped them, said they would round up votes to pass it. And now they were hearing from House Republican leaders in Harrisburg that they needed more votes, because going into this weekend, and today, the map lacks the House votes to pass it.

The way Capitolwire's Peter DeCoursey sees it, two of the four most liberal urban members of the U.S. House are lobbying their fellow urban Democrats to pass a congressional redistricting that masses the largest number of urban Democratic voters into the smallest number of districts.

Why? Because it helps Doyle and Brady - giving Brady more white Democrats along the Delaware river, protecting him against future black primary challenger. (Folks who know how beloved Brady is among African American voters may question that theory but it's interesting nonetheless.)



Lacy Clay, Bob Brady, Mike Doyle. The trifecta of heroes.

[krazen1211]

In a very surprising move, Christiana has announced that he won't run for Congress in PA 12. Looks like Turzai might want it. Otherwise, it looks likely that we will see Altmire vs. Rothfus again (assuming Altmire wins the primary).

Yeah, Turzai seems basically in. Altmire will be tough to beat, but Critz won't, imo.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Showdown-expected-in-PA-House-over-new-Congressional-map.html


Brady and U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Allegheny, in exchange for concessions in that map that helped them, said they would round up votes to pass it. And now they were hearing from House Republican leaders in Harrisburg that they needed more votes, because going into this weekend, and today, the map lacks the House votes to pass it.

Wow. I didn't know it was that unpopular. That's great. Not that it matters now.

Why? Because it helps Doyle and Brady - giving Brady more white Democrats along the Delaware river, protecting him against future black primary challenger. (Folks who know how beloved Brady is among African American voters may question that theory but it's interesting nonetheless.)

Exactly though I'm still curious to see if blacks represent over 40% of the population.

Brady is popular with most of the black community but the theory potential challengers have always had is that they, as actual members of the black community, would better represent the district.

[Vasall des Midas]

Lacy Clay, Bob Brady, Mike Doyle. The trifecta of heroes.

You're forgetting Em Cleaver, meiner Treu!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Showdown-expected-in-PA-House-over-new-Congressional-map.html


Brady and U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Allegheny, in exchange for concessions in that map that helped them, said they would round up votes to pass it. And now they were hearing from House Republican leaders in Harrisburg that they needed more votes, because going into this weekend, and today, the map lacks the House votes to pass it.

The way Capitolwire's Peter DeCoursey sees it, two of the four most liberal urban members of the U.S. House are lobbying their fellow urban Democrats to pass a congressional redistricting that masses the largest number of urban Democratic voters into the smallest number of districts.

Why? Because it helps Doyle and Brady - giving Brady more white Democrats along the Delaware river, protecting him against future black primary challenger. (Folks who know how beloved Brady is among African American voters may question that theory but it's interesting nonetheless.)

As if they need any help.

Lacy Clay, Bob Brady, Mike Doyle. The trifecta of heroes traitors.

Fixed.

[Keystone Phil]

Altmire released a statement asking Dems to vote for the GOP map, too.

[Torie]

Altmire loves the Pub gerrymander as well, and is lobbying for it, which is understandable, since he will most likely put Critz away with this map, and has a fighting chance of getting re-elected. So now we have the "traitorous quartet."

Oh, I see Phil has already noted it. The gladiators in PA are not very disciplined are they?  

[muon2]

Altmire loves the Pub gerrymander as well, and is lobbying for it, which is understandable, since he will most likely put Critz away with this map, and has a fighting chance of getting re-elected. So now we have the "traitorous quartet."

Oh, I see Phil has already noted it. The gladiators in PA are not very disciplined are they?  

Altmire sounds like Holden redux.

[Keystone Phil]

The map passed 136-61. A young, conservative State Representative that I know voted against it so I assume quite a few moderates voted against it.

[Vasall des Midas]

Do they need a two thirds majority or what was that about needing votes?

Also, is there, like, a party breakdown?

[Torie]

Altmire loves the Pub gerrymander as well, and is lobbying for it, which is understandable, since he will most likely put Critz away with this map, and has a fighting chance of getting re-elected. So now we have the "traitorous quartet."

Oh, I see Phil has already noted it. The gladiators in PA are not very disciplined are they?  

Altmire sounds like Holden redux.

Yes, he is a very talented politician, and a charming guy. I have seen him on the tube. He has no bluster at all, while being articulate, which is an effective combination in a politician who has to cater to swing voters. He will be very competitive in the general as long as he can create some clear daylight between himself and Obama. He will need to highlight some strays from the party line, to demonstrate that his vote against Obamacare was not just a fluke. Frankly I have no real interest in defeating him myself. Moderate Dems from districts which lean GOP play a useful role in the House, and afford the Pubs some "bi-partisan" cover from time to time on key votes. Granted, that is not the perspective of career politicians in general. Everybody wants to move on up into higher office.

[Keystone Phil]

Do they need a two thirds majority or what was that about needing votes?

Also, is there, like, a party breakdown?

It didn't need two thirds. They were just worried about it not passing because quite a few Republicans were opposed. I don't have a party breakdown yet.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't say this often but "Thank you, Daily Kos!" - http://images.dailykos.com/i/user/303419/PA_map.html

[Torie]

Nice map utility!

[Keystone Phil]

Even though I knew this before, it's different to actually officially see it: if we don't count the fifty or so yards of the street that runs perpendicular to mine (which is home to a gas station, a bus loop and a 7-Eleven) and the Bucks county/PA 8 border, my street is literally the most northern point of the new PA 1 and the southernmost point almost reaches the Delaware border. It looks like a two headed snake right at the toe of the boot-like PA 8.

[muon2]

Do they need a two thirds majority or what was that about needing votes?

Also, is there, like, a party breakdown?

It didn't need two thirds. They were just worried about it not passing because quite a few Republicans were opposed. I don't have a party breakdown yet.

What was behind the GOP opposition?

[krazen1211]

Do they need a two thirds majority or what was that about needing votes?

Also, is there, like, a party breakdown?

It didn't need two thirds. They were just worried about it not passing because quite a few Republicans were opposed. I don't have a party breakdown yet.

What was behind the GOP opposition?

Lancaster and Berks GOP members were upset about being carved.