US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[krazen1211]

Do they need a two thirds majority or what was that about needing votes?

Also, is there, like, a party breakdown?

The new GOP congressional gerrymander passed the state House on Tuesday afternoon by a 136-61 margin, with just eight Republicans voting no and 36 Democrats voting aye.

[Keystone Phil]

Do they need a two thirds majority or what was that about needing votes?

Also, is there, like, a party breakdown?

It didn't need two thirds. They were just worried about it not passing because quite a few Republicans were opposed. I don't have a party breakdown yet.

What was behind the GOP opposition?

Believe it or not, it could be for fairness. The State Representative I referenced really had no other reason to oppose it especially since he could be angling to run for Congress since a few years and the district got significantly more conservative. It does take in more totally new areas so that could be his gripe with it.

[Keystone Phil]

Only eight? Hmmmm...I expected a few more. Interesting.

[krazen1211]

Believe it or not, it could be for fairness. The State Representative I referenced really had no other reason to oppose it especially since he could be angling to run for Congress since a few years and the district got significantly more conservative. It does take in more totally new areas so that could be his gripe with it.

Lehigh Valley Republican representatives Joe Emrick, Marcia Hahn and Justin Simmons voted against the measure today. Voting in favor were Republicans Julie Harhart, Douglas Reichley and Gary Day.

[Keystone Phil]

Believe it or not, it could be for fairness. The State Representative I referenced really had no other reason to oppose it especially since he could be angling to run for Congress since a few years and the district got significantly more conservative. It does take in more totally new areas so that could be his gripe with it.

Lehigh Valley Republican representatives Joe Emrick, Marcia Hahn and Justin Simmons voted against the measure today. Voting in favor were Republicans Julie Harhart, Douglas Reichley and Gary Day.

I know one of the three that voted against it. 

[J. J.]

Except for PA-7?, it looks okay.

[Torie]

Except for PA-7?, it looks okay.

From what standpoint, JJ?  As a competent gerrymander? If so, I beg to differ. Surely it doesn't look "OK" to you cartographically does it?

[J. J.]

Except for PA-7?, it looks okay.

From what standpoint, JJ?  As a competent gerrymander? If so, I beg to differ. Surely it doesn't look "OK" to you cartographically does it?

Most of the districts are not too gerrymandered, by PA standards.  Only that one district in Delco is really patched together.

[Torie]

Except for PA-7?, it looks okay.

From what standpoint, JJ?  As a competent gerrymander? If so, I beg to differ. Surely it doesn't look "OK" to you cartographically does it?

Most of the districts are not too gerrymandered, by PA standards.  Only that one district in Delco is really patched together.

PA-17 is not "too gerrymandered?" Really?  But then, "PA standards" are about equivalent to the standard in an English class being the teaching ebonics. Exhibit A in support of this assertion would be the existing PA-12, the old Murtha CD, and now Critz CD, and now Beaver Falls to Johnstown CD via the North Hills. I kind of envy Grumps being in this hyper active CD now. He will get to savor both a fun primary and General election, although just like Torie, Altmire is one of his favorite Dems.

[Torie]

Altmire v Critz

This is king of interesting. Although Altmire's old CD has 65% of the residents of the new PA-12, it has only 50% of the voters, and 50% of the Obama voters (those voters most likely to vote in a Dem primary), while Critz's old CD had 43% of the Obama voters. I guess the Cambria area is packed with olds rather than kids, or whatever the reason is that is has a much higher turnout rate vis a vis its population than the North Hills area has in Altmire's old CD. In any event, Altmire might not have quite the cakewalk over Critz that we all thought, particularly since presumably the voters in Cambria will be very loyal to Critz, which is where he lives.

[Keystone Phil]

Cambria has tons of seniors.

Critz is also going to have a lot of support from labor and left-leaning groups will pour money in to help defeat Altmire.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I would be surprised if any left-wing groups spent money on the Critz/Altmire primary. Sure, Altmire was a dick to whip PA House Dems to vote for the bill, but it's not as if Critz has any particular value for liberals.

[Torie]

I would be surprised if any left-wing groups spent money on the Critz/Altmire primary. Sure, Altmire was a dick to whip PA House Dems to vote for the bill, but it's not as if Critz has any particular value for liberals.

Critz does for unions. He is in their pocket. Altmire isn't. Unions count for a lot more than liberals in this part of the world - a lot more.

[Torie]

Erase from your mind everything I posted above. My numbers were gigo. The correct numbers are below, and actually the Obama voter percentage versus the population percentage actually works in Altmire's favor!

What happened? I will tell you what happened.  I whited out the new precincts, and entered the number on excel. Then I recolored the new precincts, and whited out  the old PA-12 precincts, and put the numbers on excel. So far, so good. Then I whited out the new precincts again, leaving just the old PA-04 precincts colored, to get that number, but I neglected to press the PA-12 button, which would give me the numbers for the old PA-04 CD, so what I had (and entered on excel) were the numbers for the sum of the old PA-12 CD and the new area. No wonder the number was 50%! And there you have it. I need a conservator.

[krazen1211]

http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/flexicontent/item/31665-bradys-support-for-gop-redistricting-plan-stirs-controversy/

Brady acknowledged in a telephone interview that he spoke to Democratic legislators, though not because Republicans asked him to. Brady said he told them he and others in the state's congressional delegation could live with the new map

"What, are we going to get better? The Republicans were in charge of this. It's what they do," Brady said. "It's what we would do if we were in charge of this probably."
Brady said he feared that rejecting the map might result in something worse being adopted. He said he saw an earlier proposal that scrambled the congressional districts of Philadelphia-area U.S. Represenatives Chaka Fattah and Allyson Schwartz.

"Either Allyson would have (had) to run against Chaka or Chaka would have (had) to run against Allyson, or she would have to move into another district that they created," Brady said. He said he made his preferences clear, and that proposal for southeastern Pennsylvania was changed.

Brady says the map adopted is better, though he acknowledged it will help Republicans.

[Keystone Phil]

He makes a fair point but we know why he really cared to see this map passed...

[Keystone Phil]

Holden already gets a "serious" primary challenger - http://www.politicspa.com/serious-primary-challenger-emerges-for-holden/30293/

[krazen1211]

http://dccc.org/blog/entry/memo_state_of_play_in_pennsylvania/

DEMOCRATS REMAIN IN STRONG POSITION TO PICK UP PENNSYLVANIA SEATS IN 2012

Sen. Bob Casey won 15 of 18 seats in 2006, and his presence on the ticket in 2012 will bring voters out and help boost down-ballot races.  Only 13 of the old 19 seats were carried by Sen. Casey.




Sounds reasonable to me.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow.

There's spin and then there's spin.

[Torie]

Wow.

There's spin and then there's spin.

Just, that one was most entertaining. But I don't think many think the well meaning Casey has much going for him upstairs. He may really believe that.

[Keystone Phil]

Word from a pretty good source: Turzai isn't interested in running in PA 12. Looks like Rothfus will be the GOP nominee.

Wow.

There's spin and then there's spin.

Just, that one was most entertaining. But I don't think many think the well meaning Casey has much going for him upstairs. He may really believe that.

He didn't say it though. It was a DCCC press release. 

[So the Heroes Fall]

Meh, in 2006 and 2008 a lot of the MNGOP spin things I was reading wasn't too far off from that DCCC release. Just have to deal with that type of silliness.

[Nichlemn]

http://dccc.org/blog/entry/memo_state_of_play_in_pennsylvania/

DEMOCRATS REMAIN IN STRONG POSITION TO PICK UP PENNSYLVANIA SEATS IN 2012

Sen. Bob Casey won 15 of 18 seats in 2006, and his presence on the ticket in 2012 will bring voters out and help boost down-ballot races.  Only 13 of the old 19 seats were carried by Sen. Casey.




Sounds reasonable to me.

Reminds of me of how NC Republicans were trying to claim their congressional map wasn't gerrymandered because Democratic AG Roy Cooper would have carried 12/13 of the districts.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Holden already gets a "serious" primary challenger - http://www.politicspa.com/serious-primary-challenger-emerges-for-holden/30293/

I knew there would be a more liberal challenger to Holden considering the new dynamics of the district.  As for Holden, I'd say good riddance!  I was fine with him in OLD PA-17, but not liking him so much anymore.

[Buddha]

I am in Cheltenham and I believe that is still Fattah's district (2nd).