2011 and Beyond...

[MilesC56]

more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020!

[JulioMadrid]

more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020!

good to know =)

[MilesC56]

Rachel: Welcome back yet again to our live 2012 Election Night coverage here on MSNBC! We hope you'll stay with us as we have another hefty batch of results pouring in from states all across the country. Interestingly enough, we start in the smallest state in the Union, Rhode Island. Despite the President's slight decline in the neighboring states of Connecticut and Massachusetts, he will still be getting above 60% of the vote in Rhode Island, as it has become one of the bluest states in the county. Other than the President's 23-point win here, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse will be going back to the Senate for his sophomore term; he defeated Republican John Robatille by an even more impressive 28 points.

Chris: Now lets go to New York. The President will be winning by 20 points, not surprising. Still, he'll be falling just shy of that 60% mark. In the Senate race, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand will be falling just short of 70%. She'll be defeating Republican Karl Paladino by a whopping 41 points! Gillibrand will be another possible Presidential candidate who we'll probably hearing more from in the future. Looks like each party will be losing a House seat here due to redistricting. Governor Cuomo made a point of redistricting in as bi-partisan a way as possible, so neither party will be making gains. The House delegation will be 21 Democrats to 6 Republicans.

Rachel: With these next two calls, we have good news for Governor Romney. Kansas, as everyone was predicting, will add 6 more electoral votes to his total. The result there was very similar to that of 2008, with Romney winning by 16 points.
However, the news that Republicans should be celebrating is this: the AP has just called Ohio for Governor Romney! Even as Cleveland precincts came in, there was no indication that the President would get enough turnout to pass the Governor. Again, the AP projects that by eight-tenths of a point, Ohio will ultimately be going Republican this year. Our numbers are showing that it was the Independent voters who really hurt the President.

Chris: That's a very harsh blow to the President. With Pennsylvania and Florida still up in the air, the President can't be feeling very good right now. In New Mexico, the story is different. New Mexicans will be giving 5 electoral votes to the President again. In the Senate race, Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, the keynote speaker at the DNC a few months ago, holds Senator Jeff Bingaman's seat for Democrats against Republican Pete Domenici Jr.

[Senator Snowstalker]

If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.

[Jayhawker]

Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. Not even LBJ could win it in `64.

[MilesC56]

If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.

Modified.

I ran up Romney's margins in western OH and gave him Hamilton County.

 

Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. Not even LBJ could win it in `64.

Ok.

Well, Riley is one of the dozen or so counties in KS that are actually trending Democrat. I thought I'd get creative and trade Crawford for Riley. I'll go back later and fix that.

[Jayhawker]

I noticed I've been nitpicking a lot. Just so you know, AMAZING JOB, Miles!

[Senator Snowstalker]

One more thing--Romney would probably win Colfax and Hidalgo counties in NM if he halves Obama's margin in the state.

[MilesC56]

Chris: Following pretty iffy news for the President out of Ohio, we do have some good news for him. In Wisconsin, which was the epicenter of American politics for most of 2011, he has performed well. He will be carrying the 10 electoral votes associated with Wisconsin. There was a lot of liberal energy here left over from the 2011 recall elections, in fact, Governor Scott Walker will likely face a recall election himself next year. Walker has really helped in closing the Democratic "enthusiasm gap" that was so prominent in Wisconsin during the 2010 cycle.
In fact, one of the victims of the enthusiasm gap, Senator Russ Feingold will be headed back to the Senate after losing 2 years ago; he defeated Freshman House Republican Sean Duffy. Of course, Feingold was one of the foremost progressives while he was in the Senate. Some speculated that Feingold would challenge Walker in the recall election next year, but he opted to run for Senate again. The President will be taking 52% of the vote here and Senator Feingold has captured 53%. Feingold said that his top priority when he returns to Congress will be trying to find legislative and Congressional means of deterring the Citizens United case and its ramifications.

Rachel: We also have some good news for Republicans. In Louisiana, we have a sound GOP victory. The Governor will add 8 more electoral votes to his tally. We can project that he will be winning Louisiana by 18 points. The President marginally improved on his 2008 performance, but nonetheless, Louisiana is aggressively moving towards Republicans these days.
An interesting fact about Louisiana, in the exit polls, surveyors asked whether the President's race would make voters less likely to vote for him; the state with the highest "yes" response rate was Louisiana.

Looking at the electoral landscape of Louisiana tonight, if I were Senator Mary Landrieu, I'd be feeling very cautious right now. Even though she isn'y up for election this year, Senator Landrieu, the last remaining statewide Democrat in Louisiana, will have to cast her votes very carefully if she wants to be reelected in 2 years.

Chris: Yep, the Louisiana Democrats were always the most conservative Democrats. From what I've seen, Mary Landrieu knows how to frame herself to win in this conservative state. Moving to Arkansas, we have a very close race. Arkansas, of course, is the home of Obama's running-mate Governor Mike Beebe. Despite the state's recent Republican resurgence, Team Obama seriously contested this state. As of now, its too close to call.
What we seem to have is a classic Arkansas tossup scenario; the Delta region and most of the south went for the Democrat, while the north and west have gone Republican.
This could be very close. Its worth noting that in some Delta counties, Obama has broken 70%; that's because Beebe was born and raised in that region. The coalitions that each side builds in Arkansas will be interesting to watch. Right now, Governor Romney holds a very slight advantage.

Rachel: Well, even if Democrats don't win statewide, they have picked up one Congressional seat. In the reconfigured 2nd district, former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will oust incumbent Tim Griffin. Halter became well known for challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010, but narrowly losing. Lincoln went on narrowly retain her seat. The redistricting process also gave Halter an advantage; Democratic Little Rock was paired with heavily Democratic Pine Bluff, while most of the other smaller counties were largely Republican; this turned a Republican-leaning district into a relatively swingy seat. 

Chris: Now for another state that is similar to Wisconsin. The President has won Minnesota again. His performance will expectantly be weaker than last time around, but the AP maintains that he will be taking almost 52% to Romney's 46%. Also, like New Jersey, Minnesota is a state where we have 2 Senate races. In the regular election, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is one of the most popular members of Congress, sweeps every county against Republican Theresea Collette. The Special election was more interesting though. Interim Senator Betty McCollum wins over former Senator Norm Coleman. However, McCollum, like Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey, will be up again in 2014.

Rachel: And remember Congressman Chip Cravaack, the keynote speaker at this year's RNC? Well, he will be losing tonight. Cravaack seat was a top target of the DSCC. The new Congressman for Minnesota's 8th with be Democrat Bill Richard. Richard was the Chief of Staff for Rep. Jim Oberstar, a longtime Congressman from that district.

Chris: Finally, we can close this batch with Nebraska. While the President managed to snag the state's 2nd Congressional district, he will have no such luck tonight. Governor Romney will be taking all 5 electoral votes from Nebraska. We can also report a Senate seat takeover. For the seat being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Governor Dave Heineman will soundly be elected to the Senate against Democrat Mike Meister. Heinaman was a strong and early support of Mitt Romney.

[Senator Snowstalker]

*breathes in*...FEINGOLD!!!

I'm working towards election night 2016 (Romney vs. Feingold) in my timeline.

[mondale84]

I didn't remember that Blanche Lincoln won...

...well, I'm just going to toe the party line and say: I LOVE BLANCHE LINCOLN

[HST1948]

This is one of the best TL's I have read! Can't wait to see the final results!

[MilesC56]

'Working on an update for later today!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.

[MilesC56]

Here's another cumulative Presidential map.

Obama and Romney are only 1 electoral vote apart!!!!! (and no, I actually didn't plan that!)

ROMNEY- 162
OBAMA- 161

[Senator Snowstalker]

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

[MilesC56]

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'

[Jayhawker]

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'

[MilesC56]

The update will be later tonight....about 11-midnight-ish.

'Miles

[MilesC56]

'Working on an update for later today tomorrow!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.

[MilesC56]

Rachel: We now have a most...epic...batch of returns to report here at MSNBC Election Night. Perhaps no swing state was contested by the Obama team than North Carolina. While Obama did invest heavily here, and he even selected Charlotte for the DNC, the economic recovery in North Carolina has been languid, benefiting Romney. Our initial returns, with 48% of ballots counted, shows the candidates locked in an expectedly narrow race. Governor Romney is clinging to a razor-thin 49.5% to the President's 49.1%. Back in 2008, it actually took a few days to accurately call North Carolina; that might be the case again with the contest this close.

Chris: While the race for President got a lot of attention, we do have some important local results. Remember Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory lost the Republican nomination for Governor to former Congressman Robin Hayes!? Hayes ran as a tea party-backed alternate to the more moderate McCrory. Well, Democrats were smiling back then and they're smiling now; by giving the nomination to a less electable candidate, Republicans essentially handed Governor Perdue victory. Governor Perdue will be defeating Robin Hayes. Amazing that, even last year, most pundits were writing her off against McCrory.

Rachel: In fact, we have exit polls showing that McCrory would have won! This just shows how important primaries are! In the Congressional arena, Democrats could be running on borrowed time. Due to extensive court battles and legal paralysis, the current map will be used for one more cycle. For the 2014 cycle, a map drawn by the courts will be implemented. It is worth noting that that the current map was drawn to favor Democrats; a court-drawn map could endanger as many as 3 Democrats.
But for now, Democrats will actually gain a seat in North Carolina's delegation. We start in the 7th district, which is nestled in the southeastern corner of the state. This is actually another rematch. Ilario Pantano was a key speaker at the RNC; however he will be falling short again against Congressman Mike McIntyre. He'll be holding McIntyre under 60%, but still losing by about 18 points.

Chris: We also had a closely-watched race in the 2nd district. Republican Renee Ellmers was swept ashore in the 2010 GOP wave. However, tonight, she has been soundly beaten by Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, a resident of Harnett county. Renee Ellmers was always a controversial figure in the district and was a prime target of Democrats.

Rachel: Finally, in the 8th Congressman Larry Kissell has won against State Senator Bob Rucho. Kissell initially planned to run for Secretary of State, but announced he would run for Congress again when it was announced that the map would not change this year. Rucho campaigned strongly in Cabarrus and Stanly counties, but was blown away elsewhere inthe district.  (and no, Rucho doesn't actually live in the district he ran in, but neither does Virginia Foxx)

Chris: Well, no telling how late we could up waiting for a Presidential  winner in North Carolina. One state where we do have winners is Arizona. If Arizona hadn't been McCain's home state, Obama might well have carried it in 2008. Tonight, it stays Republican; Romney actually improved on McCain's margin. In the Senate race, Arizona will be sending Senator Jon Kyl back to Congress for 6 more years over AG Terry Goddard. Even though Kyl had a few gaffes, he will nonetheless be winning by about 6 points.

We only have 1 high-profile Congressional race here. Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick narrowly bests Congressman Paul Gosar to return to Congress. Democrats tried to portray Gosar as a fringe candidate; Gosar did have to take some tough votes in the House, like the Ryan Budget, that Kirkpatrick used against him. Congresswoman Gabby Giffords will be going unopposed while Arizona's new 9th district will be going Republican (sorry, I did't know any good candidates )

Rachel: Now lets go Wyoming. At the top of ticket, Republicans dominated. Governor Romney will be carrying the state 2-to-1. Senator John Barasso had no major opponent. What is truly historic about Wyoming tonight is the Congressional contest. Former Governor Dave Freudnethal, who remains extremely popular, will he knocking off Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis.
Fruedenthal, despite his party affiliation, trounced Lummis with Independents, winning them 64-34, and he got roughly a third of the Republican vote, while still keeping over 90% of Democrats. That kind of crossover support is very impressive, especially in a state like Wyoming.

Chris: A very, very impressive feat for Freudenthal. You know, the last time that Wyoming had a Democrat the House was 35 years ago! This was a truly groundbreaking election there.

Rachel: We can finally call Pennsylvania. Despite the slow economic recovery here, the President will be retaining. I think what we're seeing here is the result of an extraordinary effort by the Obama campaign to get the vote out in the Keystone state. While the President isn't out of the woods yet, this gives him a much-needed boost. Our county-level results aren't 100% accurate, but they're fairly close; again, the AP is calling the Keystone state for the President by about 51-48.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?

[MilesC56]

Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?

Eh, I had to give some portion of the vote to third parties.

[MilesC56]

Cumulative Congressional Update:

SENATE



NET CHANGE: D+1

U.S HOUSE

REPUBLICANS: 174
DEMOCRATS: 156
RUNOFF NEEDED: 4
OUTSTANDING: 101

[Devilman88]

What the ev map look like now?

[MilesC56]

OBAMA- 181
ROMNEY-176

(I'll post a map when I call more states)