2011 and Beyond...

[MilesC56]

OBAMA PROJECTED WINNER

Rachel: With the AP calling the three states of Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina, we can call the race for President Obama. With these three states, the tally in the Electoral College will stand at 280 for the President as opposed to 258 for the Governor.

Colorado was the only swing state to elect both a Democratic Senator and Governor last year, so Democrats invested heavily in retaining Colorado's 9 electoral votes. Colorado's very popular Governor, John Hickenlooper, was also a string supporter and campaigner for Obama. We can see those efforts paying off tonight as the President pulls out a 5-point win in this battleground state.

In Nevada, the President is clinging onto a 3-point lead, and the AP projects that the outcome of this race will not turn out in the Governor's favor. While the slow economy there was a drag on Obama, the Democratic turnout effort here was second to none; we saw this with Senate Leader Harry Reid in 2010. President Obama racked up 58% in Clarke County, Las Vegas, and Governor Romney could not make up for that elsewhere.

Chris: Finally, despite all the effort Democrats put into North Carolina, such as  hosting the DNC, Obama's dozens of campaign stops there, the millions of dollars the national party spent there, the President will be losing the state by about one-point. This comes as something of a consolation prize to the Romney campaign, a quite a few poll showed him trailing there and the Obama campaign emphasized North Carolina so greatly.

Finally, we don't have any actual returns from Alaska, but based on just exit polling, the AP is calling it for Romney.

Rachel: Well, no doubt this has been a landmark, crazy and exciting night to be an American political reporter. With the status quo largely preserved in both in the halls of Congress and in the White House, in which direction will our nation policies go now? At MSNBC we look forward to covering the 2nd part of President Obama's Administration for the next four years. For now though, I'm Rachel Maddow, signing off!

Chris: And I'm Chris Matthews!

OBAMA- 280
ROMNEY- 258

[Senator Snowstalker]

 YEAH

[Jayhawker]

Boo!

[MilesC56]

I think I'll be skipping straight to 2014 after this. In 2013, Christie wins reelection and Tom Perriello wins an upset in VA.

Now on to the midterms!

[Senator Snowstalker]

1. What did Obama do in years 5 and 6?
2. What happened in the NYC mayoral election?

[MilesC56]

1. What did Obama do in years 5 and 6?
2. What happened in the NYC mayoral election?

1- I'll get to that later.
2-Weiner wins. The Weiner-gate scandal never happened in my TL.

[JulioMadrid]

Fantastic, Obama won =)

I'd like to know the margin of Perriello's victory, however

Thanks, Miles. continue soon, please!

[CathKhan]

Nooooooo!

[MilesC56]

Fantastic, Obama won =)

I'd like to know the margin of Perriello's victory, however

Thanks, Miles. continue soon, please!

Perriello upsets Cuccinelli by a few hundred votes, just like he did with Virgil Goode.

[CathKhan]

Very good. I recall you saying this would go beyond 2012.

[MilesC56]

This also kinda goes with 2013....


NC DELEGATION EYES NEW COURT-DRAWN MAP





Today the new Congressional map of North Carolina was unveiled after more than a year of litigation. When the Democratic State House could not agree with the Republican Senate on Congressional maps, the process was sent to the courts. Specifically, the State Supreme Court took over the process of redrawing the state’s 13 House districts. The Chief Justice, Sarah Parker, along with 2 Associate Justices, Mark Martin and Patricia Timmons-Goodson, were largely charged with drawing the new districts. “Our main goals were to preserve communities of interest and create compact seats while ensuring that minorities have adequate representation. Unlike the party leaders in the General Assembly, we did not consider the partisan impacts of our lines.”; Martin went on “North Carolina has a history of virulently gerrymandered districts. North Carolina may be the most litigated state in the country, in terms of redistricting; that reflects badly on our people. We tried to change that by creating clean districts.” Chief Justice Parker said that she “fully expects the new lines to be in place for the 2014 midterms.”

In terms of partisanship, pundits project the map will result in 7 seats that are “Safe” or “Likely” wins for either party while the other 6 could become competitive under certain circumstances. While the electoral outcome of the new map is similar to the current iteration, a few NC’s individual Congressman may need to do some geopolitical maneuvering.

In the northeastern portion of the state, G.K Butterfield’s district, which lost over 100,000 people since the last round of redistricting, reaches westward to swallow Durham.  Interestingly, this was a feature of the map proposed by Assembly Republicans. Still, Butterfield himself has endorsed the new seat. “It protects the voting rights of our minorities and does not leave any significant black populations in a Republican district.” Roughly 51% of the registered voters there are black.

The new second district keeps its anchor, GOP-leaning Johnston County, but also takes in most of northern Wake County. Overall, the district maintains a slight Democratic lean, voting 50.9% for President Obama in 2012.Its incumbent, Elaine Marshall, finds herself drawn into the neighboring 13th district. Still, many expect Marshall to run in the new 2nd; NC political pollster Tom Jensen says “She’s had 18 years a statewide official; name recognition should not be a problem for her in any of these districts. It would make sense for her to run in the new 2nd. She’d start out as the favorite.”

Walter Jones’ 3rd district becomes slightly more compact and remains largely unchanged. It gave about 60% of its vote to Governor Romney in 2012. Most expect Jones, a moderate Republican, to have no problem holding it.

In shedding Durham to the new 1st and much of its Wake county territory to the new 13th, David Price’s 4th now extends to Greensboro and hugs the Virginia border. Even though most wanted Wake county to have only 2 districts, the 4th maintains a small tendril of Wake to include NC State University. “We wanted the 4th to represent the interests of the Research Triangle.  It now includes NC State, Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill” Martin said. “These institutions will have a unified Congressional voice in Representative Price. Using his clout, he will be able to steer appropriate funding towards these three great universities” Martin said. “This may be the most highly-educated district in the country!” Obama won the 4th by 59-40 in 2012.

Virginia Foxx’s 5th is still nestled in the northwestern corner of the state. It shed much of its Triad area in order to take in counties near Foxx’s residence. Giving Governor Romney almost 64%, this is a very safe GOP seat.

The new 6th would become a much more urban seat, consisting of most of central Winston-Salem and Greensboro. Without a viable district in the Research Triangle, most expect Congressman Brad Miller to run here, despite his general lack of clout in local politics. “He was raised in Fayetteville, he’s represented Raleigh in the State Senate and Congress and now it looks like he’ll have to move to the Triad.  Is there a region of the state where Congressman Miller doesn’t have a connection to!?” Jensen joked. Still, while Miller’s current 13th does have a portion of Greensboro, most of this district would be new to him; he could be vulnerable in a primary. Specifically, 2010 Senate candidate Cal Cunningham is considering a run here, should Miller decide to run elsewhere. The winner of the Democratic primary would be favored, as this seat gave Obama 56% last year.

The 7th district keeps its general configuration in southeastern NC. While the district gave President Obama only 45% to Romney’s 54%, Congressman Mike McIntyre, a conservative Democrat, should hold it fairly easily, even though he barley lives within the confines of this new seat. “We wanted to use as many whole counties as possible for this district” Chief Justice Parker said. “In splitting Robeson, that standard was otherwise fulfilled.”  Historically, this is a deeply Democratic seat; the last time the 7th district of North Carolina sent a Republican to the US Congress was in 1868.

Congressman Larry Kissell of Biscoe would keep a slightly Democratic-leaning seat. Giving Obama 52% last year, some observers consider this to be a swing district; still, despite Republican efforts to unseat him, Kissell has proven to be an especially formidable campaigner.
 
Sue Myrick of Charlotte will be among the safest incumbents in Congress. In 2010, she won with almost 70% in a 54% McCain seat; now, she will hold a 60% Romney seat based in the southern and eastern Charlotte suburbs.  Congressman Patrick McHenry is similarly as safe as he ever was. The Gaston County Congressman will take a 63% Romney district that will encompass the western and northern Charlotte exurbs.  

Congressman Heath Shuler would find his district virtually unchanged “The 11th district was already a fairly logical and compact seat” Martin announced. “Therefore, the 11th was largely insulated from any changes, other than minor line tweaks.” Despite Governor Romney’s 7% margin here, this district is more competitive on the local level and the conservative Shuler is very popular.

Perhaps the most radical change that this map presented was the elimination of the so-called ‘NC-12 Snake.’ “We thought that a district based entirely in Mecklenburg County was more than reasonable” said Martin. “Rather than splitting his time and effort between major three cities, Congressman Watt can focus exclusively on representing the people of Charlotte.”  As for partisan concerns, the 12th district will still be strongly Democratic, though less so than its previous iteration; it would have given Obama 66% in 2012, as opposed to 71% in its serpentine shape back in 2008.

Finally, the 13th occupies a good swath of central NC and most of southern Wake County.  Representative Elaine Marshall would live there, but most expect her to run in the neighboring 2nd. With the dean of the delegation, Congressman Howard Coble, retiring, former Congresswoman Renee Ellmers is said to mulling a comeback, though its unclear as to how crowded the GOP field will be.

“In the final analysis, we feel that we have created a map that features compact seats and strengthens communities of interest” the 3 Justices said in a joint statement.



District Stats:

[Senator Snowstalker]

Decent map, not ultra-gerrymandered like either the D plans or the R plans.

[JulioMadrid]

continue!!

[MilesC56]

November 2013

LOOKING TO MIDTERMS, EPIC SENATE MATCH-UPS COULD EMERGE

_{Senators Warner, Collins, Landrieu and LoBiondo could find themselves in tough races next year.}

Politico-  While political observers had quite a spectacle this year with Governor Tom Perriello's surprise win in Virginia and Governor Chris Christie's win over New Jersey Senate Leader Steve Sweeney, next year will be even more promising for political enthusiasts. In 2012, Democrats held  a 53-47 Senate majority while the GOP held their majority in the People's House. With the President's approvals breaking roughly even, 48% approving with 49% disapproving reports PPP, and Congressional approval gradually rising, political statistician Nate Silver says that large changes within Congress are unlikely next year. "We shouldn't expect a sizmic power shift next year. Republicans will not have a 2006-style beatdown; similarly, Democrats are unlikely to experience a 2010-esque bloodbath."

Still, operatives for both parties are eyeing total Congressional control. DSCC Chair Xavier Bacerra says that a Democratic House comeback could very well be in the cards. "After 4 years of Speaker Boehner's polarizing and ineffective style, I think its fair to say that the American people want better. We House Democrats look forward to being back in the majority come 2015 and so we can finally end the political stagnation." House Majority Leader Eric Cantor takes another stance. "By giving the gavel to my good friend Speaker Boehner, the American people sent a message; they want a balanced and responsible approach to governing. Thats what we as Republicans have tried to do. As a country, we can't afford to return to free-spending, and unrestrained days of Speaker Pelosi."

There will also be many high-profile Senate races. Thanks to big gains in 2008, Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid will be defending 20 seats to only 13 for Minority Leader McConnell.  "Of course Americans are sick and tired of a Democratic Senate" said RSCC Chair Richard Burr. "Republicans have a solid opportunity to flip up to 9 seats next year. That would give us a strong 56-44 Majority. Senate  Democrats will not have the advantage of having an unpopular President to run against, as they did back in 2008. In fact, President Obama may actually be working against some Democrats." DSCC leader Patty Murray suggested otherwise "American voters approved of the job Senate Democrats were doing back in 2012 and I fully expect them to again. In the Senate, Democrats have been focused on ushering forward jobs agenda that we feel will help millions of Americans."

Most political pundits are already predicting which Senate races will be most competitive.

In Virginia, outgoing Governor Bob McDonnell is said to be weighing a run against Senator Mark Warner. "McDonnell is a fine Governor and he has a strong record as a legislator" said Burr. Still, even with McDonnell, Virginia could be an uphill climb for Republicans. Warner's latest numbers showed 53% approving of his job to only 31% giving him bad marks; McDonnell was given favorable reviews himself, with 51% approving and 38% disapproving of his tenure.

Republicans are also targeting Mary Landrieu, who is among the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. She already has one opponent in former Congressman Jeff Landry; Landry is  positioning himself a the tea party's choice. "Landrieu had been voting for big government her entire career. Louisiana is a Republican state and it deserves a true conservative. Senator Landrieu will pretend to a moderate, but when push comes to shove, she will vote with her more liberal colleagues." Murray says otherwise "I don't know why the people of Louisiana would want want to throw away Mary's 18 years of clout in the Senate. From defending the Gulf Coast, to protecting small businesses, Mary wakes up every day with the goal of moving her state forward." Other possible Republicans include Congressman Charles Boustany and Bill Cassidy. Governor Jindal, a rising star in GOP politics said that he is "leaning against" a Senate run. Landrieu's last approval was 44/40; she also led Landry 43-36.

On the other side, Democrats think that they could pick up a few seats. In Maine, Congressman Mike Michaud looks to be gearing up towards challenging Senator Susan Collins. "I can assure you that Democrats will not be picking up a seat from Maine next year" Burr maintained. "Susan does a fantastic job of representing her constituents. Her legislative style reflects the independent spirit of her people." Democrats say that Michaud could be competitive. Collins posts a 55/33 approval rating and leads Michaud 53-40 in hypothetical polling. "She's still strong, but her numbers now are worse than the 24-points she won by in 2008" said pollster Tom Jensen. "Collins' lead isn't insurmountable, but Mainers are quite fond of both their Senators." Senator Olympia Snowe stands at a 59/29 approval rating.

A more winnable race for Democrats could be that in New Jersey. Senator Frank LoBiondo held onto his seat despite President Obama's 12-point win. Like Collins in Maine, LoBiondo retains a good amount of personal popularity, which helps his prospects in this blue-leaning state. PPP pegged his approvals at 50/38. Even so, Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts posted similar numbers in 2011, but went on to lose by 6.
Ironically, LoBiondo's biggest challenge may come from his right; he's carved out a niche as a liberal Republican, supporting Democrats on many environmental and social policies. "I've tried to bring moderation to the Republican caucus. I take the best ideas from both parties to get results for the people of New Jersey. I don't see whats so controversial about that." Tea party groups are trying to draft Governor Christie, somewhat of a conservative firebrand, to run in the Republican primary. Christie has since ruled out running. "Look, I appointed Frank. There's no chance I'd run against him. I appointed him in the first place because I knew he'd be an effective Senator. Here in Trenton, I have my hands full already." Conservatives may find a better candidate in former Congressman Jon Runyan, who said he'd "consider" running for Senate again. On the Democratic side, progressives are eyeing Congressman Rush Holt. Holt trails LoBiondo 45-40 but leads Runyan 43-37. In primary polling, Christie narrowly leads LoBiondo 41-39 but LoBiondo would hold a 53-36 lead over Runyan.

[JulioMadrid]

I see LoBiondo becoming an independent =S

I know you'll make Landrieu win, Miles! However, please, don't let Warner loose!!

[MilesC56]

We'll see!!

Anyway, now that school is back in full swing for me, I'll probably update the TL on a weekend-to-weekend basis.

[Jayhawker]

Excited!

Warner has stated several times how unhappy he's been in the Senate due to the lack of compromise and bitterness there. Personally, I don't see him running for reelection, especially if he would be in a competitive race.

Fun fact I noticed a while back - the last Virginia Governor who didn't later run for Senate was Douglas Wilder. He ran for Mayor instead.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?

[Jayhawker]

I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?

He ran for both President and Senate, but both runs were short lived. I'm only considering runs that actually ended in defeat/victory.

[MilesC56]

I thought Wilder ran for President.

Also, is McConnell vulnerable?

He's at 40/51 approval in KY.

Some of KY's Democratic statewide officials may be prepping to run for his seat...

[Senator Snowstalker]

Guessing either Mongiardo or Conway.

[JulioMadrid]

Senator Conway... I like it! (f*** Rand Paul, he should have dropped out and endorsed his challenger hahaha).

[Talleyrand]

Guessing either Mongiardo or Conway.

Crit Luallen?

[MilesC56]

SHE'S BACK!!!

Politico- Today, in her home town of Wasilla, Alaska, former Governor Sarah Palin announced that she will seek elected office again: this time, to the US Senate. "I'm very proud of the campaign we ran for President. My team put forward a great effort and we received millions of votes, but in the end, we fell just short of the Nomination. Even though Republicans came very close to winning back in 2012 we still have a President who is imposing crushing regulations on our businesses and destroying the future of our future generations. Until 2016, that will sadly still be the case. In the meantime, all kinds of Americans have been asking me "Sarah, why don't you run again!? Please run again!" Well, this outpouring of support has truly been humbling. The more I thought about it, the more I realized that I could not just sit back while President Obama and Senate Leader Harry Reid bankrupt our county and spend away America's greatness. Thats what's motivated me and thats while I'll be running for US Senate in these upcoming midterm elections."

She went on "I know that I will have the full backing of many patriotic groups such as the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks, as well as my own SarahPAC. In the last midterm elections, these groups raised millions to elect Constitutional Conservatives and we were able to take back the House.  From New Mexico to Maine, conservatives were able to make unprecedented gains in all across the country, not only in Congress, but also at the more local levels. Well, this time I'm throwing my own hat into the ring!"

Palin also took a few swipes at her opponent, Senator Mark Begich. "Now for being ruggedly  conservative state, Alaska has a two liberal Senators in Washington. Senator Begich pretends to be a moderate, independent-minded legislator, but in the end, he will vote with Harry Reid and the liberals. He voted for the stimulus package which did next to nothing for us in Alaska and wasted hundreds billions. He also voted this President's healthcare take-over. We can't afford that! If I'm elected, I will bring a fresh, conservative perspective to the US Senate where Senator Begich has failed."

Almost immediately after Palin announced her candidacy, Alaska's senior Senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, endorsed her junior colleague. Despite their separate party affiliations, this move came as no surprise to those familiar with Alaska politics. "There's a well-known animosity between the Palins and Murkowskis which has only been exacerbated through the years" said one of Rep. Don Young's aides. Starting in 2006, Palin ousted Murkowski's father in a primary and in 2010, Palin played a key role in Murkowski's 2010 Senate primary loss. I don't think "dislike" would be a good word for their relationship; "disdain" would probably more appropriate."

"The people of Alaska should, and I believe that they ultimately will, have the good sense to avoid partisan politicians like Sarah Palin. Its clear that after walking out on the job during her first term and then failing at the national level, Governor Palin is heading back to Alaska in hopes that she can convince voters to give her another chance at leading. Senator Begich and I have worked to find solutions for Alaskans, not by tearing others down and demonizing those we disagree with, but by bringing everyone together. That's why I'll be endorsing my friend Mark for reelection." Begich's office put out a statement saying he looks forward to reelection regardless of who his opponent is. "Senator Begich sees this as a good opportunity to contrast his common-sense and centrist legislative approach to the extremist views of Governor Palin" his spokesperson said.

Tom Jense of PPP explained the statistical aspects of Palin's race; "Palin isn't particularly popular, but her negatives have gone down" said Jensen. "Last month, we found that 40% of Alaskans have a favorable view to Palin to 48% who see her negatively. That may not sound stellar, but its much better than the 36/58 spread we found her at during the lowest point of her Prediential campaign. The trend is in here favor." As far as the actual Republican primary, the news gets better for Palin; 55% of Alaska Republicans want her as their nominee to just 32% who 'definitely' want someone else.

With both Palin and Begich heavily favored to win their primaries, the general election would start out a tossup. "Begich would post a 44-41 lead. What could be worrisome for Begich is that he posts sub-par numbers himself; only 37% are happy with his job to 45% who aren't. Still, the fact that Begich is leading in a state where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats is pretty impressive." Murkowski fares better, holding a positive 47/36 approval rating. "Murkowski's endorsement could be a big help to Begich. Her popularity could be an asset to him" Jensen concluded "Just like 2008 and 2010, we can expect the Alaska Senate race this year to be nail bitter."

[JulioMadrid]

YEEEEEEEEEEEEES, Sarah Palin being defeated by a liberal anti-american democrat in her own state!!

That sounds great