U.S. House Redistricting: New Jersey

[Verily]

Yes there is. Newark has a distinctly white/Latino North and East Ward (Hispanic district) and three largely black wards (Payne). These constituents have differing concerns. Jersey City has one and a half black wards and four and half Asian-Latino-White wards. Moreover, if you drive thru North Newark or the Ironbound its more like Hudson County than the rest of Newark, so that part should be in Pascrell or Sires and not Payne. Other communities have similar divides.

Verily did you mean 2000 or 2010 numbers?

2000, as Vazdul requested.

Also, the racial divides within JC or Newark are not enormous enough to be worth splitting municipalities over. Now, if either JC or Newark were large enough for more than one district, it would be fairly clear which parts should be split off (well, maybe; I would probably split Downtown JC and Newport from the rest of JC first)--but that's not necessary. However, it is equally clear that, for example, the Bergen-Lafayette district of JC has much stronger connections to the rest of JC than it does to Irvington or East Orange even though Bergen-Lafayette is overwhelmingly black.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I disagree. I think districts should focus more on similar kinds of neighborhoods and cultural ties rather than municipal lines. The Ironbound culturally is similar to Hudson County, as are sections of Elizabeth. Thus the Hispanic VRA district, with its large white ethnic population, makes sense.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Anyone think there could be a John Olver style retirement in Jersey?

[krazen1211]

Anyone think there could be a John Olver style retirement in Jersey?

If so, it will be Pallone, as some people don't like him and he could run for governor.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

White Smoke? Maybe:
http://www.politickernj.com/52980/speculation-heavy-redistricting-deadline-looms

[nclib]

If it's Garrett vs. Rothman in a toss-up CD, Rothman should win since Garrett is very conservative for NJ.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Depends hows it drawn. I think Garrett needs at least an R +1 or R+2. Also his dissenting towns (Glen Rock, Ridgewood, Tenafly and Bergenfield) would have somewhere to go with Rothman. However I think Garretts base in the Northwest will come out big against Obama and Rothman. This will be a good one.

[Verily]

The thing about combining Rothman and Garrett is where Garrett lives. A "fair fight" district in Bergen is totally feasible, but a district that includes a large portion of Bergen and stretches all of the way out to Sussex is almost impossible due to population constraints and very unlikely to be a fair fight. I suppose they could put Garrett and Frelinghuysen (or Garrett and Lance) together and then make Rothman's district marginal to "compensate" (unfair since Republicans are already overrepresented, and Lance's district is obviously the one that "should" be eliminated, in addition to Pallone being drawn out of his district [but the district itself surviving as a D seat], but whatever), but that doesn't seem like what the commission is suggesting.

[BigSkyBob]

The thing about combining Rothman and Garrett is where Garrett lives. A "fair fight" district in Bergen is totally feasible, but a district that includes a large portion of Bergen and stretches all of the way out to Sussex is almost impossible due to population constraints and very unlikely to be a fair fight. I suppose they could put Garrett and Frelinghuysen (or Garrett and Lance) together and then make Rothman's district marginal to "compensate" (unfair since Republicans are already overrepresented, and Lance's district is obviously the one that "should" be eliminated, in addition to Pallone being drawn out of his district [but the district itself surviving as a D seat], but whatever), but that doesn't seem like what the commission is suggesting.

Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

[muon2]

The thing about combining Rothman and Garrett is where Garrett lives. A "fair fight" district in Bergen is totally feasible, but a district that includes a large portion of Bergen and stretches all of the way out to Sussex is almost impossible due to population constraints and very unlikely to be a fair fight. I suppose they could put Garrett and Frelinghuysen (or Garrett and Lance) together and then make Rothman's district marginal to "compensate" (unfair since Republicans are already overrepresented, and Lance's district is obviously the one that "should" be eliminated, in addition to Pallone being drawn out of his district [but the district itself surviving as a D seat], but whatever), but that doesn't seem like what the commission is suggesting.

Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

This is correct. A fair map doesn't just reflect the general partisan leaning of a state, but also should reflect the mood of the electorate. For example, the CA map for the last decade was so locked in that swings in the electorate were not reflected in its delegation and only 1 of 53 seats changed parties during the decade. By contrast the IL map during the last decade was better in that the initial 10 R - 9 D delegation shifted to 7 R - 12 D by 2008, then to 11 R - 8 D in 2010.

[krazen1211]

Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

Indeed. The Republican candidates got more votes than  the Democratic candidates across all 13 districts in 2010.

[Gravis Marketing]

Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

Indeed. The Republican candidates got more votes than  the Democratic candidates across all 13 districts in 2010.

What was the average number of votes cast in Dem-held districts compared to Republican-held districts, and what accounts for the difference?

[krazen1211]

Republicans have nearly as many seats as the Democrats because the voters of New Jersey chose to elect them. It simply isn't for you to decide which parties are "overrepresented," and which are not.

Indeed. The Republican candidates got more votes than  the Democratic candidates across all 13 districts in 2010.

What was the average number of votes cast in Dem-held districts compared to Republican-held districts, and what accounts for the difference?

Certainly they were much lower. Albio Sires won with ~66k votes if I recall. Many Republican losers like Sipprelle got more votes; hence, the above phenomenon.

To be clear, I do not believe that such 'proportional representation' theories hold water, or that the GOP is underrepresented, or that they should have won a 7th district in 2010.

[Former Moderate]

If they created a Bergen-centric NJ-05, it might give Assemblyman Russo his opening to challenge Garrett. Maybe even Kathie Donovan. The ideal situation for Republicans would be Garrett running for US Senate, leaving the seat open for Donovan. Garrett's a bit too far to the right for the part of Bergen where Rothman lives, and Rothman has previously represented and won North Bergen.

Depends hows it drawn. I think Garrett needs at least an R +1 or R+2. Also his dissenting towns (Glen Rock, Ridgewood, Tenafly and Bergenfield) would have somewhere to go with Rothman. However I think Garretts base in the Northwest will come out big against Obama and Rothman. This will be a good one.

I agree with this: Garrett needs an R+1 at least.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

The only way I see a "Fair Fight" district emerging is to extend Freylinghuysen north and east through Wayne into Bergen so he absorbs some Bergen Republicans. Basically NW Bergen is cut out and thrown into the new 11th which would have more of suburban Essex as well as Totowa, Little Falls and Woodland Park. It also means Pascrell's new district would be at least 45% from Rothman in South Bergen. Pascrell could represent these people but would Rothman pick the district with right-wing voters in Sussex or potentially piss off the party with a Pascrell primary? The Rothman Garrett district sounds somewhat polarized but it would be extremely interesting.

[traininthedistance]

A "fair" NJ map would IMO eliminate Lance's district, and give both Runyan and Pallone districts they'd be hard-pressed to win.  Reaching across the Pine Barrens from the Delaware to the Atlantic has always bothered me; it would make more sense to have one Mercer-Burlington district and one Ocean County district.  I guess a Mercer-Burlington district would actually be Rush Holt's as well, but he'd be a better fit for a compact Middlesex County district (possibly with southern Somerset).

I grew up in Pascrell's district and always thought it was the best-looking, most compact district in NJ, so I really want to see it survive.  Southern Passaic and suburban Essex is a very logical combination.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

You have a point about the 8th though it could easily take in the Meadowlands or West Essex and still be compact.

Unbelievable how far ahead Pascrell runs ahead of the national Democratic ticket usually. Hence why the GOP probably shouldn't allow him to go against Garrett.

[traininthedistance]

You have a point about the 8th though it could easily take in the Meadowlands or West Essex and still be compact.

Unbelievable how far ahead Pascrell runs ahead of the national Democratic ticket usually. Hence why the GOP probably shouldn't allow him to go against Garrett.

My preferred solution for the 8th would be for it to take the rest of West Essex, in fact.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

That would probably make it D+6. But Pascrell wouldve still gotten about 57% in 2010 considering his performance in a D+10.

Intreresting that you can draw Rodney all the way to the 3rd Ward of Kearny and keep him at 53% McCain if you have the other Republicans absorb Dover and Morristown. Shows that a lot of suburban Essex and Passaic is still pretty conservative.

[krazen1211]

I grew up in Pascrell's district and always thought it was the best-looking, most compact district in NJ, so I really want to see it survive.  Southern Passaic and suburban Essex is a very logical combination.

Except for the inclusion of the low income city of Paterson, yeah,

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't think even an R+1 (which still means voted for Obama) would be strong enough for someone as far right as Garrett. I don't see how he could survive in an Obama-voting district against any half-decent challenger.

[traininthedistance]

I grew up in Pascrell's district and always thought it was the best-looking, most compact district in NJ, so I really want to see it survive.  Southern Passaic and suburban Essex is a very logical combination.

Except for the inclusion of the low income city of Paterson, yeah,

Paterson is surrounded by suburbs, and it has to go somewhere.  Putting it in with the same district as the rest of Southern Passaic (and note the city of Passaic itself is similar) is easily the best option.  You can't just string urban core to urban core without creating a horrible mess.

[muon2]

I grew up in Pascrell's district and always thought it was the best-looking, most compact district in NJ, so I really want to see it survive.  Southern Passaic and suburban Essex is a very logical combination.

Except for the inclusion of the low income city of Paterson, yeah,

Paterson is surrounded by suburbs, and it has to go somewhere.  Putting it in with the same district as the rest of Southern Passaic (and note the city of Passaic itself is similar) is easily the best option.  You can't just string urban core to urban core without creating a horrible mess.

I still like my option of using Paterson as part of a 57% HVAP district as I posted a while back. It's less messy than either the current NJ-6 or 13.

[Devils30]

A fair NJ map would probably shave off Sussex and Warren from Garett's district, setting up a Bergen centric Garrett/Rothman battle in a D+0-1 district. Give Sussex to NJ-11, Warren to NJ-7 and expand NJ-12 into southern Somerset county while giving all of Hunterdon to NJ-7

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

A fair NJ map would probably shave off Sussex and Warren from Garett's district, setting up a Bergen centric Garrett/Rothman battle in a D+0-1 district. Give Sussex to NJ-11, Warren to NJ-7 and expand NJ-12 into southern Somerset county while giving all of Hunterdon to NJ-7

The problem is, Garrett lives in Sussex, so any "fair fight" district involving Garrett would have to include it. And Garrett is so conservative by New Jersey standards that removing those Republican areas from the district wouldn't make it a fair fight anyway.