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Poll
Question: Do you expect Obama to do
rather well against the Republicans (lead by 5 or more)   -9 (37.5%)
rather badly against the Republicans (trail by 3 or more)   -5 (20.8%)
Somewhere in between   -10 (41.7%)
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Total Voters: 24

Author Topic: In PPP's upcoming Michigan poll ...  (Read 2398 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 06, 2010, 02:48:23 pm »

PPP tweets:

Kind of surprised by how Obama does against 2012 GOP foes in Michigan...what would you all expect to see there?

(I'll say later today whether the Michigan numbers are better or worse for Obama than I expected)

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

I'd say somewhere in between. I think Romney leads by 3, Huckabee is tied with him and Palin and Gingrich trail by only 2 points.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2010, 02:57:27 pm »

Because I´m in prediction mode, here are my predictions for the Michigan PPP poll:

Obama vs. Romney: 44-47
Obama vs. Huckabee: 46-46
Obama vs. Palin: 47-45
Obama vs. Gingrich: 46-44

GOP Primary:

Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 19%
Palin: 18%
Gingrich: 13%
Paul: 5%
Others: 4%
Undecided: 11%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2010, 03:01:47 pm »

Bonus Prediction:

Obama Approval Rating in Michigan: 47-50
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Fuzzy
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2010, 04:27:57 pm »
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PPP tweets:

Kind of surprised by how Obama does against 2012 GOP foes in Michigan...what would you all expect to see there?

(I'll say later today whether the Michigan numbers are better or worse for Obama than I expected)

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

I'd say somewhere in between. I think Romney leads by 3, Huckabee is tied with him and Palin and Gingrich trail by only 2 points.

Not quite, they had another tweet:

Quote
To follow up on what I said about Michigan earlier, Obama looks better than I expected. That will be out tomorrow along w/ MN Senate


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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2010, 04:39:21 pm »
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My Predictions:

Obama vs. Romney: 47-45
Obama vs. Huckabee: 49-42
Obama vs. Palin: 53-41
Obama vs. Gingrich: 50-40

GOP Primary:

Romney: 34%
Palin: 17%
Huckabee: 15%
Gingrich: 11%
Paul: 5%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 12%
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2010, 04:42:41 pm »
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PPP tweets:

Kind of surprised by how Obama does against 2012 GOP foes in Michigan...what would you all expect to see there?

(I'll say later today whether the Michigan numbers are better or worse for Obama than I expected)

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

I'd say somewhere in between. I think Romney leads by 3, Huckabee is tied with him and Palin and Gingrich trail by only 2 points.

Not quite, they had another tweet:

Quote
To follow up on what I said about Michigan earlier, Obama looks better than I expected. That will be out tomorrow along w/ MN Senate




Okay so I will guess +8 against Romney and +11-15 against everyone else.
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xavier110
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2010, 05:33:07 pm »
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Well, the auto industry is definitely on its way up, so maybe that's why?
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2010, 05:37:36 pm »
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This is PPP...so the polls tend to be liberal relatively until the end so here's my predictions

Obama vs. Romney: 45-45
Obama vs. Huckabee: 46-46
Obama vs. Palin: 50-45
Obama vs. Gingrich: 46-43

GOP Primary:

Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 20%
Gingrich: 16%
Palin: 15%
Paul: 4%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 10%
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2010, 05:58:34 pm »
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My right-wing economic policies with regards to the auto companies and the UAW have been paying off, I see.
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2010, 07:27:48 pm »
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Obama vs. Romney: 49-45
Obama vs. Huckabee: 48-42
Obama vs. Palin: 52-41
Obama vs. Gingrich: 50-43

GOP Primary:

Romney: 24%
Huckabee: 17%
Palin: 15%
Gingrich: 14%
Paul: 2%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 23%
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« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2010, 09:31:54 am »
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How much time usually elapses between the tweet and the posting of numbers?
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Rowan
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« Reply #11 on: December 07, 2010, 10:10:56 am »
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I think this part will be out today.
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« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2010, 10:41:56 am »
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This is one of the states I expected him to be doing awful in right now, guess among RV not so much maybe.
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2010, 11:41:24 am »
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This is one of the states I expected him to be doing awful in right now, guess among RV not so much maybe.

If it is coming out today, then any predictions will be as meaningless as any pre-game shows before the football game. Just watch the football game that decides the day.
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2010, 12:00:37 pm »
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Michigan

Obama: 47%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 51%
Huckabee: 39%

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 37%

Obama: 56%
Palin: 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_1207930.pdf
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2010, 12:10:31 pm »
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Decent showing for Romney, even when taking his ties to the state into account. Horrible for the rest of them. lol @ Palin.
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2010, 12:21:33 pm »
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Michigan

Obama: 47%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 51%
Huckabee: 39%

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 37%

Obama: 56%
Palin: 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_1207930.pdf
Pretty good numbers for Romney, at least compared to the others.
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2010, 12:23:23 pm »
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Also, 50% approval to 45% disapprove. Independents go huge for Obama except with the Romney matchup.

Palin's favorables: 34% favorable, 60% unfavorable
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« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2010, 12:28:46 pm »
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Obama leads by 11 points against Moderate Hero Snyder as well.
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2010, 12:31:44 pm »
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I'm actually beginning to believe he has a chance of winning re-election, between these kinds of polls and the economic news.
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« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2010, 12:53:06 pm »
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Michigan

Obama: 47%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 51%
Huckabee: 39%

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 37%

Obama: 56%
Palin: 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_1207930.pdf

He is doing much better than I expected (though, I kinda thought that Palin would be in the high-30s). Not quite sure how useful it is to poll Obama vs. Snyder, as The Nerd has yet to take office.

It's a shame that they didn't do any polling on the Senate race (or Stabenow's approvals).
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Rowan
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« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2010, 01:05:21 pm »
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Michigan

Obama: 47%
Romney: 43%

Obama: 51%
Huckabee: 39%

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 37%

Obama: 56%
Palin: 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_1207930.pdf

He is doing much better than I expected (though, I kinda thought that Palin would be in the high-30s). Not quite sure how useful it is to poll Obama vs. Snyder, as The Nerd has yet to take office.

It's a shame that they didn't do any polling on the Senate race (or Stabenow's approvals).

They did. It will be released this week as well.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: December 07, 2010, 01:56:09 pm »
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President Obama would absolutely crush any of the obvious GOP front-runners in Michigan except Mitt Romney. Michigan is not going to vote for any Southern reactionary for President for a long time. He would probably defeat Romney 53-47 in Michigan, which is fairly strong for Obama against someone with ties to Michigan. Approval for the President is about the same in Michigan as in Virginia, a very different state.

Rick Snyder is the newly-elected Republican Governor of Michigan, and he is a conceivable VP candidate. The only way in which he figures as a nominee in 2012 is as a VP candidate; he is vastly unproven. He could be on the short list of Republican nominees for president in 2016, especially if he presides over some Michigan Miracle.

So much for the idea that the 2010 election shows the Rust Belt going against President Obama in 2012. 
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« Reply #23 on: December 07, 2010, 02:08:03 pm »
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Given the national face time of winning the GOP nomination, Pence will easily outperform Palin/Huck/Romney/Newt.
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« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2010, 02:09:53 pm »
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Given the national face time of winning the GOP nomination, Pence will easily outperform Palin/Huck/Romney/Newt.

Who's Pence?

But regardless, even if he's better than the rogues gallery you just listed, your wave peaked too early.
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