US House Redistricting: Florida

[Verily]

The Hispanic areas north of Hialeah (but still in Dade County) are actually very Democratic, like 65% Obama. I guess the Cubans don't live up there?

[Vasall des Midas]

The Hispanic areas north of Hialeah (but still in Dade County) are actually very Democratic, like 65% Obama. I guess the Cubans don't live up there?

Miami Lakes would be the biggest incorporated town in those parts, and it's majority Cuban.

[Verily]

Here's my fair map of Dade and Broward Counties. There's no reason for Cubans to be dominating all three Hispanic districts, certainly; Hispanics should be considered as a group, and this map is much more geographically reasonable.

Blue: 57.7-42.3 Obama; 26.8W, 12.1B, 57.6H (VAP) (includes Monroe County)
Green: 54.8-45.2 Obama; 25.4W, 5.9B, 66.1H
Purple: 84.9-15.1 Obama; 10.8W, 50.6B, 34.7H
Red: 37.8-62.8 McCain; 6.4W, 1.5B, 90.6H
Gold: 73.3-26.7 Obama; 43.6W, 35.0B, 17.3H (plurality black on overall population, would definitely elect a black-preferred Congressman, and quite compact)
Teal: 61.7-38.3 Obama; 53.5W, 10.9B, 29.5H (unfortunately, most of the remaining blacks and Hispanics are in the SW corner, inaccessible for the gold district)

[Vasall des Midas]

Here's my fair map of Dade and Broward Counties. Since non-Cuban Hispanics actually outnumber Cubans in Dade County, they got two districts and Cubans got only one.

Can't you read numbers? Cubans are a majority of the Hispanic population in the county.

[Verily]

Here's my fair map of Dade and Broward Counties. Since non-Cuban Hispanics actually outnumber Cubans in Dade County, they got two districts and Cubans got only one.

Can't you read numbers? Cubans are a majority of the Hispanic population in the county.

Yeah, I misread that. I noticed and fixed it before you posted.

[krazen1211]

What are the growth rates of the Cubans vs non Cubans in Dade? This decade it's almost a sure thing that the Cubans will crack the non Cubans again, probably successfully, for 10 years; you can accomplish that fairly easily while still placing 1 (or even 2) districts entirely in Dade.

Eventually though they might quarantine off all the Democratic Hispanics at the south end and use to Cubans to crack the semi liberal whites.

I don't think this is really geographically possible. Nearly all of the non-Hispanic whites in Miami County live either (a) on the barrier islands or the nearby mainland, or (b) south of the city.

The northern whites are inaccessible except through the black areas (obviously not possible) or through downtown Miami. They would have to all be in one district because it's just too narrow to partition them otherwise. Drawing a district like that, I end up with 54% Obama--might be possible to lower that to 51-2% if you're more precise, but it can't go much lower, which is far from safe.

The southern whites are surrounded by and interspersed with non-Cubans, so they would go naturally in a south-Dade-and-Monroe Hispanic Democratic district (which is around 57-58% Obama and around 60% Hispanic VAP).

3 McCain districts, 2 of which sit entirely in Dade. Yellow, Blue, Brown. The Keys are removed and placed in the Naples district.




10 years from now someone might place the Keys, Homestead, Cutler Bay, etc in a new Democratic district, but certainly not today.  Depends on how whites in Broward County vote over the next 10 years.

The black district can of course assist in grabbing some non Cuban Hispanics.

[freepcrusher]

Probably not surprising, but, at least for now, Grayson is running in the 27th.

could Grayson be the next Bob Filner - a very liberal transplanted jewish dem running in a heavily minority sunbelt district.

[Verily]

Krazen, your map violates the FRA (or whatever it's called). There's an unnecessary and illegal county split between Dade and Broward; you only need one to simultaneously create three Hispanic districts and one black district, as my map showed (and you need a split both for population equality and to create the black district--actually I think you might be able to create a majority black district all in Dade, but it has to reach down U.S. 1 all the way to Homestead in a long tail and looks ridiculous).

[krazen1211]

Krazen, your map violates the FRA (or whatever it's called). There's an unnecessary and illegal county split between Dade and Broward; you only need one to simultaneously create three Hispanic districts and one black district, as my map showed (and you need a split both for population equality and to create the black district--actually I think you might be able to create a majority black district all in Dade, but it has to reach down U.S. 1 all the way to Homestead in a long tail and looks ridiculous).

If you say so. No court has found such, so its merely an opinion that isn't taken seriously.

[Verily]

Krazen, your map violates the FRA (or whatever it's called). There's an unnecessary and illegal county split between Dade and Broward; you only need one to simultaneously create three Hispanic districts and one black district, as my map showed (and you need a split both for population equality and to create the black district--actually I think you might be able to create a majority black district all in Dade, but it has to reach down U.S. 1 all the way to Homestead in a long tail and looks ridiculous).

If you say so. No court has found such, so its merely an opinion that isn't taken seriously.

The law is quite explicit in saying that county splits are to be minimized (but subordinated to racial considerations), so you should take it seriously. I would not be shocked if the politicized Florida judiciary found otherwise, of course...

"[D]istricts shall, where feasible, utilize existing political and geographical boundaries." Clearly, not bridging the Dade-Broward line more than once is feasible, and it does not violate any of the other provisions.

[Vasall des Midas]

The black district can of course assist in grabbing some non Cuban Hispanics.

Does so inevitably, actually. (Well, some Hispanic Democrats. It's clearly not the same thing.)

I do not see that a double county split between Dade and Broward is illegal per se, but it would need to be justified to be defendable in court. Krazen's parts of Broward are not really connected - he's cutting out a Hispanic area that doesn't vote the way he wants and places it in a White district, after all - and I'm not sure of the racial breakdown of the areas he includes instead. If they're White, it's should be very tough to defend.

[krazen1211]

The black district can of course assist in grabbing some non Cuban Hispanics.

Does so inevitably, actually. (Well, some Hispanic Democrats. It's clearly not the same thing.)

I do not see that a double county split between Dade and Broward is illegal per se, but it would need to be justified to be defendable in court. Krazen's parts of Broward are not really connected - he's cutting out a Hispanic area that doesn't vote the way he wants and places it in a White district, after all - and I'm not sure of the racial breakdown of the areas he includes instead. If they're White, it's should be very tough to defend.

Weston is about 31% Hispanic and 60% or so white. Mid 50s Obama territory. 'Political' and 'Geographical' boundaries obviously includes town boundaries as well as county boundaries and no heirarchy is placed among them. It is of course nice to assume one when it benefits your party, but other courts (such as the New Jersey Supreme Court) have ignored much stronger language that is less subject to interpretation.

I might add of course that the 2 districts I placed entirely in Dade is 1 more than the legislatures maps, or your own. The point of view of both parties in the legislature is reasonably clear in this regard.

In any event, taking out the Keys and placing in Miami Beach and Weston doesn't really make much sense this decade anyway, unless you really want to save Allen West that badly.

[Padfoot]

I didn't dig deep enough to see if any maps were released publicly but there appears to be some more movement here.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/Redistricting-Maps-Starting-to-Move-in-Florida-211483-1.html

[Vasall des Midas]

There seems to be a very real battle between the House and Senate on whether the bill should be faithfully executed or the GOP should just take its chances in court, in the Tampa Bay area. You'd almost think the House was under split partisan control.

This is what the Senate EDIT: the Senate Committee passed. Race stats. (I also found a document with loads of other statistics by district, but nothing political in there. Tenure, age groups, and whatnot.)

The House Committee, meanwhile, has narrowed the choice down to this, this, or this. http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9041.pdfHighly technical report, amend 1 to 3 or 5 at end of address for other two plans.

[Skill and Chance]

There seems to be a very real battle between the House and Senate on whether the bill should be faithfully executed or the GOP should just take its chances in court, in the Tampa Bay area. You'd almost think the House was under split partisan control.

This is what the Senate EDIT: the Senate Committee passed. Race stats. (I also found a document with loads of other statistics by district, but nothing political in there. Tenure, age groups, and whatnot.)

The House Committee, meanwhile, has narrowed the choice down to this, this, or this. http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9041.pdfHighly technical report, amend 1 to 3 or 5 at end of address for other two plans.

The FL Senate passed a pretty aggressive map today.  FL-22 and the new FL-27 are conceded.  None of the other 19 R seats gets worse than 51.5% Obama, but FL-02 could be a toss up with a Blue Dog.

It is quite a gamble because a special master COI map of Florida would be the best thing to happen for Democrats this cycle.  The state supreme court is 4D-3R and presumably has final authority over whether the map is legal.

[Devils30]

Of course this map favors the GOP but it's honestly a notable improvement over the current one. FL-22 is now clearly a D leaning district. FL-10 will be in play at some point in the near future when Young retires. I agree about FL-2 being a good blue dog district at 47% Obama. FL-25 is a Democratic trending area of Dade county that easily could become a tossup or D leaning by the middle of the decade(younger Cubans are not nearly as republican). FL-16 would take the right year for a Dem to win b/c Rooney is popular but it's in play during a wave. FL-8,24 went for McCain by less than 1 point and have several high growth heavily hispanic areas (Polk County in 8, Seminole in 24). By 2018 this map may not be that awful for Dems but they should still challenge it anyway. A court would likely give them an additional seat out of Orange County and make FL-22 safe.

[Vasall des Midas]

There seems to be a very real battle between the House and Senate on whether the bill should be faithfully executed or the GOP should just take its chances in court, in the Tampa Bay area. You'd almost think the House was under split partisan control.

This is what the Senate EDIT: the Senate Committee passed. Race stats. (I also found a document with loads of other statistics by district, but nothing political in there. Tenure, age groups, and whatnot.)

The House Committee, meanwhile, has narrowed the choice down to this, this, or this. http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9041.pdfHighly technical report, amend 1 to 3 or 5 at end of address for other two plans.

The FL Senate passed a pretty aggressive map today.  FL-22 and the new FL-27 are conceded.  None of the other 19 R seats gets worse than 51.5% Obama, but FL-02 could be a toss up with a Blue Dog.

Same map as the Senate committee map linked above, or do I need to go search for it?

[krazen1211]

There seems to be a very real battle between the House and Senate on whether the bill should be faithfully executed or the GOP should just take its chances in court, in the Tampa Bay area. You'd almost think the House was under split partisan control.

This is what the Senate EDIT: the Senate Committee passed. Race stats. (I also found a document with loads of other statistics by district, but nothing political in there. Tenure, age groups, and whatnot.)

The House Committee, meanwhile, has narrowed the choice down to this, this, or this. http://censusvalidator.blob.core.windows.net/mydistrictbuilderdata/Legislative%20Plans/H000C9041.pdfHighly technical report, amend 1 to 3 or 5 at end of address for other two plans.

The FL Senate passed a pretty aggressive map today.  FL-22 and the new FL-27 are conceded.  None of the other 19 R seats gets worse than 51.5% Obama, but FL-02 could be a toss up with a Blue Dog.

Same map as the Senate committee map linked above, or do I need to go search for it?

Same I believe. 7 of the 12 Florida Democrats voted in favor of it. It will likely be difficult to claim that such a map is drawn for a partisan purpose.

[krazen1211]

They seem to have created a Senate district within Palm Beach that should be solid for a Republican. Of course, Senate districts are about 2/3 the size of the Congressional.




Sen. Oscar Braynon, D-Miami Gardens, questioned why the GOP had carved out District 29 stretching from just east of Fort Lauderdale north to take in most of coastal Palm Beach County when it could have been drawn entirely in Palm Beach.

Surrounded by districts that tilt Democratic, the new-look District 29 is similar to Republican Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff's current District 25.

The new district is a little more of a straight line in Palm Beach, but would still likely be a swing seat, with 37 percent Republican voters and 35 percent Democrat.

[krazen1211]

Interesting note #2. I was wondering why they changed FL-13 from its original configuration (Manatee and Sarasota Counties) to its new configuration (the coastal areas of Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties).

Well, it looks like they cut the house district of Dem Challenger Keith Fitzgerald in 2.

[Skill and Chance]

It seems like every Republican map this cycle has had at least one Democratic vote for it, even serious gerrymanders like PA and OH. 

Out of curiosity, I wonder if any Republicans voted for the Democratic maps in IL or MD?  I believe the MA Dem map got Republican votes...

[muon2]

It seems like every Republican map this cycle has had at least one Democratic vote for it, even serious gerrymanders like PA and OH. 

Out of curiosity, I wonder if any Republicans voted for the Democratic maps in IL or MD?  I believe the MA Dem map got Republican votes...

The vote in IL was on party lines.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

The MA map was essentially drawn at random.  They didn't even bother to gerrymander it except to create a majority-minority district in Boston.

[Skill and Chance]

The MA map was essentially drawn at random.  They didn't even bother to gerrymander it except to create a majority-minority district in Boston.

After watching the PA and VA GOP, it's amazing to me how badly Dems played the game in CO.  They needed just a single GOP vote in one chamber of the legislature to pass whatever map they wanted.  Just agree to turn some GOP legislator's 57% Obama district into a 57% McCain district on condition that he/she votes for everything else in your maps!

[Former Moderate]

Out of curiosity, I wonder if any Republicans voted for the Democratic maps in IL or MD?  I believe the MA Dem map got Republican votes...

The Dem map in MA was surprisingly bipartisan -- or at least as bipartisan as you could expect from the Dem legislature. If I was a GOP Rep., I'd have voted for it too.