US House Redistricting: New York

[krazen1211]

That's a bit silly to assume Owens would have a primary and would want a more Republican district.  It's almost always easier for an incumbent to win a primary than a general election (with some recent exceptions like Murkowski).  What, six House Democrats in New York lost their general election contests in 2010?  How many lost primaries?

He voted for health care reform and is in no way despised by liberals.

You might be right. I thought his record was more conservative than it actually is, which goes to show that Doug Hoffman is an idiot, and that he's done a really good job with his fake moderate rhetoric.

I believe that Andrew Cuomo would want clean districts, although Shelly Silver is probably going to roll him on this issue and a lot of others.

[Verily]

There are a couple of other things I might do to make that map a little more favorable to the incumbents, such as stretching the Rochester seat down to Canandaigua and then dropping some of the really R suburban areas to the west in exchange. That could get the Rochester seat up to 59% Obama and the rural seat between Rochester and Syracuse up to 55% McCain. Also, Hamilton (in Madison County) is a very D college town isolated just beyond the Syracuse-Ithaca district that it seems a shame to strand in a heavily R seat, but drawing it into the Syracuse-Ithaca seat makes the border with the rural seat a little ugly.

[Vasall des Midas]

Hideous, but it does get all the GOP seats to a +5 PVI at least, Dems to +8.  I'm not even going to pretend that this is realistic. 

Thank you, that's a relief.

[krazen1211]

CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55%
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54%
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54%
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60%

The other point to think of is Long Island.

McCarthy's and King's district pretty much draw themselves in this manner. The question I see is whether Israel will want something more than 54% here.



I don't think Long Island really trended towards the Democrats all that much from 2000 to 2008.

[Lunar]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

[patrick1]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

Even larger when you consider that Sunset Park was until recently (I think around the early 1960's with completion of Gowanus/BQE) considered part of Bay Ridge.

The other cities in New York have been bleeding population for decades. They have more in common with Rust belt than SE part of the state. It is crazy when you think Buffalo was once in the top ten largest cities.

[Verily]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

Even larger when you consider that Sunset Park was until recently (I think around the early 1960's with completion of Gowanus/BQE) considered part of Bay Ridge.

The other cities in New York have been bleeding population for decades. They have more in common with Rust belt than SE part of the state. It is crazy when you think Buffalo was once in the top ten largest cities.

Yup. Buffalo now has the distinction of being one of the few cities that now has less than half the population it once did, a distinction it shares with only Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis.

I did a map of population growth and decline in New York at one point. Outside of Ithaca, it's a sea of red Upstate.

[Lunar]

Wow, looking at a list of New York's most populous cities, it's impressive that many of NYC's neighborhoods would place well into the top 6 (i.e. Flushing, my own Sunset Park) etcetc: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York#Cities

And even more would place in the top 7.  I wonder how some high growth neighborhoods in NYC will fair compared to that list of cities once the census information is complete.

None of those neighborhoods could hold up against a similar list of the most populous Californian cities (the other state I have familiarity with).

Even larger when you consider that Sunset Park was until recently (I think around the early 1960's with completion of Gowanus/BQE) considered part of Bay Ridge.

The other cities in New York have been bleeding population for decades. They have more in common with Rust belt than SE part of the state. It is crazy when you think Buffalo was once in the top ten largest cities.

Yup. Buffalo now has the distinction of being one of the few cities that now has less than half the population it once did, a distinction it shares with only Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis.

I did a map of population growth and decline in New York at one point. Outside of Ithaca, it's a sea of red Upstate.

8th most populous city in the country to 70th.  Ouch.

[dpmapper]

There are a couple of other things I might do to make that map a little more favorable to the incumbents, such as stretching the Rochester seat down to Canandaigua and then dropping some of the really R suburban areas to the west in exchange. That could get the Rochester seat up to 59% Obama and the rural seat between Rochester and Syracuse up to 55% McCain. Also, Hamilton (in Madison County) is a very D college town isolated just beyond the Syracuse-Ithaca district that it seems a shame to strand in a heavily R seat, but drawing it into the Syracuse-Ithaca seat makes the border with the rural seat a little ugly.

If you take Canandaigua, you may as well go over and grab Geneva, as it's still the same county.  Free up the Syracuse seat to take Utica, perhaps? 

The other small problem with the map is that it puts Tonko, Hanna, and Gibson all in the same district (the pink one).  I think Tonko lives in Montgomery County.  That's the easy part to fix, but I think the Pubbies would complain if you crush Buerkle *and* push two of their other incumbents together.  Is there a good way to do the 6D-4R-1 Owens swing with one of the GOP reps tossed in with Owens? 

[Verily]

There are a couple of other things I might do to make that map a little more favorable to the incumbents, such as stretching the Rochester seat down to Canandaigua and then dropping some of the really R suburban areas to the west in exchange. That could get the Rochester seat up to 59% Obama and the rural seat between Rochester and Syracuse up to 55% McCain. Also, Hamilton (in Madison County) is a very D college town isolated just beyond the Syracuse-Ithaca district that it seems a shame to strand in a heavily R seat, but drawing it into the Syracuse-Ithaca seat makes the border with the rural seat a little ugly.

If you take Canandaigua, you may as well go over and grab Geneva, as it's still the same county.  Free up the Syracuse seat to take Utica, perhaps?  

The other small problem with the map is that it puts Tonko, Hanna, and Gibson all in the same district (the pink one).  I think Tonko lives in Montgomery County.  That's the easy part to fix, but I think the Pubbies would complain if you crush Buerkle *and* push two of their other incumbents together.  Is there a good way to do the 6D-4R-1 Owens swing with one of the GOP reps tossed in with Owens?  

You're right, but it's easy to fix. Either way, on this design two R incumbents will have to share a district in addition to Buerkle's seat becoming D, however. It's a 6-4-1 map, after all. The choice is whether Hanna goes with Gibson or with Reed.

The point of this map is:

One R seat is eliminated.
Buerkle's seat becomes D. It leans D now anyway, but it becomes more strongly D to shore up the other R seats. This goes with the assumption that the Republicans will assume they will lose Buerkle's seat on the current lines within a couple of cycles anyway, which is probably true.
Owens' seat remains competitive to lean R.
All others are left safe.

Then, downstate, one D seat (likely Ackerman) is eliminated.

The alternative is like the map I posted earlier with the extremely erose lines. Yes, it preserves five Rs, but it would never pass a basic-logic test. NY does not gerrymander that extremely. And any less-gerrymandered map leaves multiple R incumbents vulnerable. Better for them to surrender two seats upstate in exchange for the Ds surrendering one seat downstate and leaving one upstate D vulnerable.



Utica is too far from Syracuse. Same for Geneva from Rochester. Geneva goes with Syracuse because there are other D-leaning towns in between them.

[Verily]

Okay, made some minor modifications to put Amsterdam (Tonko's residence) into his seat in exchange for some R areas of Saratoga County.

Trenton (Hanna's residence) is northeast of Utica, so I'll leave him with Gibson instead of Reed.

[Verily]

[ilikeverin]

They have more in common with Rust belt than SE part of the state.

Their dialect's the same as the Rust Belt, too; the only difference is that Buffalonians are aware of their dialect due to stigmatization by downstaters, while Michiganders are like "we talk like everyone else in the entire world".

[Gravis Marketing]

I agree with everyone else, it's a great map. Why the east-west split between two GOP districts in Dutchess and Columbia counties?

[Sam Spade]

It looks good to me, and is the type of map I really expect to actually occur.

[Verily]

I agree with everyone else, it's a great map. Why the east-west split between two GOP districts in Dutchess and Columbia counties?

The eastern bits are very Democratic (Berkshires/Pittsfield influence, I guess). I drew them into Hayworth's district to even out the partisanship of the two seats.

I would have drawn them into Owens' district instead, but I would assume the GOP would not condone making his district any more Democratic on this map.

[Verily]

Here's Long Island (ignore Queens). Pete King's district snakes around to be as R as possible while shoring up the other three incumbents. Ackerman is tossed out.

Bishop: 57% Obama
Israel: 55% Obama (Ackerman is here, too)
King: 56% McCain
McCarthy: 60% Obama

The map contains some water connections without roads, but New York has been perfectly amenable to those in the past, so I am assuming they are fine.

[Lunar]

Here's Long Island (ignore Queens). Pete King's district snakes around to be as R as possible while shoring up the other three incumbents. Ackerman is tossed out.

Bishop: 57% Obama
Israel: 55% Obama (Ackerman is here, too)
King: 56% McCain
McCarthy: 60% Obama

The map contains some water connections without roads, but New York has been perfectly amenable to those in the past, so I am assuming they are fine.

indeed

[patrick1]

That is one ugly map of LI.   I like how it just magically  jumps across Reynolds channel and scoops up the black/Hispanic area of Long Beach. It  then snakes around to bring in what looks like Elmont, W Valley Stream and Inwood.  Wonderful gerrymander.

[Smash255]

Here's Long Island (ignore Queens). Pete King's district snakes around to be as R as possible while shoring up the other three incumbents. Ackerman is tossed out.

Bishop: 57% Obama
Israel: 55% Obama (Ackerman is here, too)
King: 56% McCain
McCarthy: 60% Obama

The map contains some water connections without roads, but New York has been perfectly amenable to those in the past, so I am assuming they are fine.

This would get me the hell out of King's district   Yea 

Ironically enough my old precinct which is more Democratic than my current one would be in King's district

[krazen1211]

That is one ugly map of LI.   I like how it just magically  jumps across Reynolds channel and scoops up the black/Hispanic area of Long Beach. It  then snakes around to bring in what looks like Elmont, W Valley Stream and Inwood.  Wonderful gerrymander.

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

[Vasall des Midas]

I just lost a map of NY that was 22 seats finished. It was one of those "pointedly non-gerrymandered" things again... clean lines, no unnecessary county splits, no unnecessary town splits, race used as an argument among many in NYC but no more. I had a packed in 77% Black seat in the middle of Brooklyn. I also had the four Long Island seats very very similar in vote percentage... starting marginally Democratic and getting ever more marginal as you went eastward.

[Verily]

That is one ugly map of LI.   I like how it just magically  jumps across Reynolds channel and scoops up the black/Hispanic area of Long Beach. It  then snakes around to bring in what looks like Elmont, W Valley Stream and Inwood.  Wonderful gerrymander.

Actually, I realized it almost does have full road connections except for that. Central Islip could be connected to the rest of NY-01 by the Bay Shore-Fire Island Ferry with only a little bit of editing (although is the ferry year-round?).

Also, can you drive from Mastic Beach to Fire Island Pines on Fire Island? Google Maps makes it ambiguous.

[Lunar]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties. 

[muon2]

it's a pretty brutal map for the GOP as far as Long Island is concerned. I'm guessing the GOP is going to want a 1-2-1 map for LI, with the Bishop seat staying somewhat swingy.

But the Democrats probably get what they want.

Without thinking too much about it, I imagine that this could get in the way of a hard-gerrymander of Long Island: http://www.nysenate.gov/district/09

I think the owner of that district would be very disinclined to support a plan that screwed over the Long Island Republican Parties. 

That's basically the district I added to King's current CD to get my map. It strengthens the district and is a reasonable concession from the Dems if they get 3 LI districts. I made CD-1 significantly stronger for the Dems, especially given the results they saw in 2010. A 2% shift from CD-2 would not have hurt Israel in 2010. If its a big deal, it wouldn't be hard to shift another point of Dems from CD-1 to CD-2.

CD 1 (blue, Bishop D): White 78%; Obama 55% (2008 Obama 51%)
CD 2 (green, Israel D): White 77%; Obama 54% (2008 Obama 56%)
CD 3 (purple, King R): White 88%; McCain 54% (2008 McCain 52%)
CD 4 (red, McCarthy D): White 64%, Black 15%; Obama 60% (2008 Obama 58%)

Italicized added from original quote.