US House Redistricting: New York

[Smash255]

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120306/NEWS01/303060016/Congress-district-Monroe-County

LOL! Slaughterhouse is unhappy about losing the earmuff district now.

I guess when you realize that you might have to campaign once in a while you don't want the 'Rochester based district' anymore.



Slaughter expressed dissatisfaction with the plan. “We are not happy with it,” she said. “They cut the district up pretty much from what we asked for. We were looking for Democratic performance. Frankly, I would have liked to go down to Ithaca.”

She knows that with a determined opponent, she will probably run substantially below the Dem baseline. As it were, I "knew" she would be unhappy, and noted at the time I drew her district in my map, which is what she got, that she would have some issues, and may have to tack a bit, and not be so provocative and embarrassing.

Why is she saying this publically?  Is she agitating for another bi-partisan gerrymander? Sure honey, we will shore you up, if Buerkle is shored up in exchange. Maybe we will give you the part of Syracuse that you would love best.  How about that? 

Because she wants Shelly Silver to redraw the map.


Dean Skelos is calling their bluff.

http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Wednesday-GOP-Likes-Redistricting-Plan-141789963.html

New York Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos says Republicans could pick up four Congressional seats under the new district lines proposed by a judge this week.
   
Skelos says he likes the proposed congressional lines and there may be little if any change to the federal magistrate's redistricting plan.

Which districts?  If Republicans couldnt pick up NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, and NY-23 in 2010 when indepdendents were more Republican than they will ever be again in our lifetimes and Democratic turnout fell through the floor, they wont be picking them up in 2012. 

The Republican candidate in NY-01 was undermined by the NY GOP establishment (almost as good as the NY TP in throwing sure wins). Otherwise the GOP would have most certainly won there. NY-02 was gerrymandered in 2002 to be beyond reach for the GOP. NY-04 had a weak candidate, and in NY-23 the Tea Party screwed things up by splitting the vote up.

The GOP did have some infighting in NY-01, but keep in mind they still had a $$$ advantage.  Altschuler dumped $3 million of his own funds into the race and still lost.   Opponents very rarely have a $1.5 million spending advantage.

NY-03 actually had more of a GOP gerrymander in 02 than NY-02 did  (the 4th and 5th also became more Democratic at the expense of the 3rd).  King is in more danger than Israel with the current map.

NY-04 is still too Democratic for the GOP to take no matter what the candidate

Considering the margin, any such infighting was likely a critical factor.

Between Israel's skill as a candidate and the amount of changes made, they did enough to put it beyond reach. Four was within reach with the right candidate in the right year because of McCarthy.

I don't really concern myself with King's political future.

I agree with you on Israel.  The incumbent protection map (which is what the last redistricting basically was) helped both Israel and King, but may have even had more impact on King.

As far as the 4th, it never really was within reach.  The district was always Democratic enough it would have been hard for the GOP to do anything there.  The GOP bench there was pretty much wiped out with the collapse of the Nassau GOP machine in the late 90's/ early 2000's.  The machine is still very strong in the Town of Hempstead, but Murray (The Town Supervisor) lives in Levittown (King).  Not to mention the recent demographic changes.   Basically the only possibility the GOP could have had is if 2002 was a stronger GOP year and the party didn't collapse 10-12 years ago and even that would have been a huge stretch.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

The 4th even in the new form strikes me as a fool's gold type of seat, it's obviously not a seat where there is a 0% or even 1% chance of ever electing a Republican, but drawing up those circumstances is really difficult and kind of contrived. Kind of like the Republicans winning a Senate seat in Massachusetts, just because it's obviously possible for a charismatic hyped up candidate to win a special election during a wave of backlash against a terrible opponent running a terrible campaign there doesn't mean you can expect it to happen. It certainly takes more than the incumbent being kind of stupid, especially when she's stupid about an issue that most people in the district agree with her on, even if it's not high on their priority list, McCarthy may not be an effective gun control advocate but the Republicans aren't going to win a Long Island seat on a gun rights campaign. Slaughter even moreso.

Besides in either case, who is going to run against beat either one? Obviously someone quite a few notches above "generic Republican" would be needed to make the race even on the radar.

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

[Gravis Marketing]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

[muon2]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

The alternative to Inwood is to cross into Brooklyn as I did on my map. Even then I split the Rockaways to get the needed 50%.

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

The alternative to Inwood is to cross into Brooklyn as I did on my map. Even then I split the Rockaways to get the needed 50%.

you need to go into Nassau around Elmont (but that district crosses the border into different areas one of which is completely unnecessary to get a black majority district) in which case my original question is still true.
Isn't the whole official purpose of this map to unite communities of interest.

If Inwood is united with Queens there's zero excuse for not uniting Far Rockway with the 5 Towns.

[krazen1211]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views. That said, Slaughter is interesting mostly because her comments regarding Ithaca are very funny!

Skelos should be pushing Torie's solution to earmuff into Syracuse.

[Vasall des Midas]

Please, people. 50% on DRA is not 50%. That's 53%. Get.that.into.your.heads.

What you probably cannot do is get to actual 50% without crossing into Nassau while also uniting Rockaway, drawing a clear northern line rather than cherrypicking precincts down to the very last Black resident, and giving Woodhaven to Velazquez.

As for Inwood, it was probably done because he felt it a better fit or something. And/or enabled cleaner lines for Israel in Queens and for the McCarthy/Israel line.

[NY Jew]

Please, people. 50% on DRA is not 50%. That's 53%. Get.that.into.your.heads.

What you probably cannot do is get to actual 50% without crossing into Nassau while also uniting Rockaway, drawing a clear northern line rather than cherrypicking precincts down to the very last Black resident, and giving Woodhaven to Velazquez.

As for Inwood, it was probably done because he felt it a better fit or something. And/or enabled cleaner lines for Israel in Queens and for the McCarthy/Israel line.

And the Jewish part of Far Rockway is an infinite times better fit in the LI district then Inwood is in the Black district which goes back to my original question.

[freepcrusher]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views.

most democrats, including most blue dogs, support abortion rights. What's the big deal?

[krazen1211]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

It has to do with her extreme proabortion views.

most democrats, including most blue dogs, support abortion rights. What's the big deal?

Statements like this.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/rep-louise-slaughter-gop-freshmen-came-washington-kill-women

And legislation like this.

http://www.louise.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2502&Itemid=100065

[Torie]

Well there is chatter that a Constitutional deal is in the works, that will effectively make it impossible for there to be a Dem gerrymander in NY ever. If one party controls both houses, it takes a two thirds majority to pass a map. Otherwise it goes to a commission. If power is split, then it takes just a simple majority, and bi-partisan gerrymanders can go on and on - forever and ever, which is just the way NY politicians like it. They want to represent sinecure like seats, not competitive ones. So the specter of the GOP losing the Senate at the wrong time, and being shut out of the state the way the Pubs are in Mass, has had a stake put in its heart. That Pub nightmare will no longer interfere with their sleeping restfully at night.

The Dems are acting very curiously all in all, to say the least. If I were a Dem in NY, I would be furious.  How can they stand to be represented by this passel of wall-to-wall hacks?  

[ag]

This would be easy to circumvent. If Dems ever come to power in the NYS Senate, a group of them is delegated to form a Working Families faction, meaning that no party technically has a majority. At that point, a map is passed w/ a simple majority, after which the 2/3 Dem majority in both chambers is hardwired into the system. What could be simpler?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Slaughter is 82 years old. Not sure I understand the Republican bloodlust against her. She will retire soon enough.

Yeah I don't get it. She's an uninteresting backbencher too.

But hey if Republican donors want to sink about a million against her instead of to vulnerable Republicans or Mitt Romney's SuperPACs, go ahead.

[Former Moderate]

What I hoped to find: Solid information about the new New York map and what to expect this fall

A separate thread for discussion on Jewish voting in NY has been created.

[Torie]

Now Nancy Pelosi chimes in, whining for a bi-partisan gerrymander. She is concerned about Hochul of course, but also guess who - Louise Slaughter!  Bring back the ear muffs!  She is not too happy about Lowey's CD either. She seems sexist by worrying just about the females, rather than the guys on Long Island, but I digress.

The Pubs should make the Dems pay a high price to get what they want. We shall see just how good the Pubs are as negotiators. When the Dems are doing this in public, you know they seem willing to open their wallets. The Pubs should empty them - or tell the Dems to keep their money. I guess we will find out soon just how hackish the Pubs in NY are.

My suggestion is to let NYJew draw the Pub CD in Brooklyn and Queens. That way everybody will be happy. 

[edtorres04]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter. 

[Torie]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

[Gravis Marketing]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

[Torie]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

[traininthedistance]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

[Torie]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

That dog won't hunt at all.  It isn't Christmas, with Santa giving presents just to Dems. So if that is the Dem position (which is such a non starter that I doubt that it is if they are serious about dealing), we just go with the court map with which the Pubs are quite happy about on balance, and the Dems less happy.

[Gravis Marketing]

Torie, every time you take the field for the Republicans, the Dems collapse and sign up for some terrible bargain that gives them 10% of the loaf.

Unhappiness with the court map seems to be focused on the idiosyncratic case of Slaughter losing a safe district and Pelosi making a cameo on her behalf, and some new risk to entrenched Dems on LI. Does anyone really believe the Pubbies are happy with Turner getting vaporized, Buerkle getting no support and on her way out, and Gibson unexpectedly being endangered? This map gives both parties more opportunity for growth, but make no mistake, it's not a win for the Pubbies.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well there is chatter that a Constitutional deal is in the works, that will effectively make it impossible for there to be a Dem gerrymander in NY ever. If one party controls both houses, it takes a two thirds majority to pass a map. Otherwise it goes to a commission. If power is split, then it takes just a simple majority, and bi-partisan gerrymanders can go on and on - forever and ever, which is just the way NY politicians like it. They want to represent sinecure like seats, not competitive ones. So the specter of the GOP losing the Senate at the wrong time, and being shut out of the state the way the Pubs are in Mass, has had a stake put in its heart. That Pub nightmare will no longer interfere with their sleeping restfully at night.

The Dems are acting very curiously all in all, to say the least. If I were a Dem in NY, I would be furious.  How can they stand to be represented by this passel of wall-to-wall hacks?  

Oh yes indeed, regardless of the situation, the worst possible result is a plan that actually benefits the people the most, instead of the honerable and distinguished gentlemen of the chamber in Albany. They are after all far more important and should take priority. Fairness only aids the little people, which are as stated, little. As result their consider shall be proportional to their relevance.

[traininthedistance]

Torie, if I were the pubs, I would demand a new set of Rochester to Syracuse earmuffs to shore up Burkle and Slaughter.  

Indeed.  And the Pubs Gibbs and Nan are propped up, along with Lowey (D), and three of the marginal Long Island seats are made less marginal (2 Dems and 1 Pub King), NY-01 is left alone (marginal - Bishop D), and the Pubs get the Brooklyn-Queens CD back for Turner, made more Pub. The rest of upstate is left alone. That is the deal that I would demand. Otherwise the court map stays - take it or leave it.

Would you like their heads on a platter?

Hey it is not that bad. The bottom line is that the Dems take the hit for both CD's that are gone, rather than each party taking one loss (well maybe .6 for the Pubs and 1.4 for the Dems since the Buerkle is but lean Dem since she is the incumbent), and you count the fluke Hochul seat as Pub anyway, with Hochul just a bench warmer.

Any deal where the Dems take the hit for both seats is a rotten one and I wouldn't accept it.  Both parties losing one is the only fair way to do it.

If I'm negotiating for the Dems, I offer to redraw LI to shore up Israel and King, and honestly that might be all I'd do.  Maybe swap Ithaca for Rochester suburbs to boost Slaughter and Reed as well.  Hochul I am willing to write off, as long as Buerkle's seat gets no redder than it is right now.

That dog won't hunt at all.  It isn't Christmas, with Santa giving presents just to Dems. So if that is the Dem position (which is such a non starter that I doubt that it is if they are serious about dealing), we just go with the court map with which the Pubs are quite happy about on balance, and the Dems less happy.

Well in that case I will just take the court map, and insist that the court draws the State Senate map, too.  With *equal population*, none of this systematic 10-percent deviance, which I'm sure the Republicans will be just thrilled about.

Then, if I'm feeling like playing hardball, raise the possibility of mid-decade redistricting after the inevitable happens.