France 2012: the official thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?

No. But considering our size it's pretty amazing how many empires we defeated through the course of history, from Persians to Italians.

[Californian Tony]

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

[YL]

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...

[ObserverIE]

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...

Please, guys, this is actually an Irish (Canadian-Irish to be exact) self-hating far-right loon.

[Andrea]

La Tribune de Geneve has published results from Saint Pierre, Saint Martin, Guadaloupe, Martinique and Guyane
http://www.tdg.ch/monde/francois-hollande-arrive-tete-outremer/story/13506241

[Hashemite]

This thread will now be locked, as per custom and all.

[Hashemite]

This thread is now unlocked. Discussion of raw results, maps and other interesting stuff still goes in the results thread.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2134636/Francois-Hollande-Sacre-bleu-Is-France-line-fail.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #52 - 23 April 2012   


(the current thread was locked, so I'm a bit late to give you these numbers here )      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 55,11
Sarkozy 44,89

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

Daily IFOP poll steady at 55-45 since Monday.

On my blog, an analysis of pollsters: Harris is the best one !... behind the Big Bad Tracker of course !

Harris clearly ahead, with IFOP, TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay and IPSOS not so far away.
LH2 and CSA are quite bad. BVA is bad.

[Californian Tony]

Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.

I don't think it's useful to add a tracker with voting transfer. The hypothetic advantages of correcting possible selection biases is overshadowed by the disadvantage of working with tiny samples.

[Californian Tony]

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

[Senator MaxQue]

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

Well, I think he may be destroing the UMP in the process. I don't see how people like Jouanno and Luca and NKM will be able to stay in the same party than Luca, for example.

[Bacon King]

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

[Californian Tony]

BTW, just for information, here is fab's tracker seen in column graphs rather than lines. That way it's easier to see performances in a global perspective.



(last column indicates actual results)

[Californian Tony]

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.

[big bad fab]

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.

SIGH....

Read my blog tonight... read the numbers of vote transfers in the daily IFOP poll... gasp !

Juppé président !

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #53 - 27 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 53.59
Sarkozy 46.41

Expect far worse numbers for Sarkozy on Monday...

[Vasall des Midas]

I doubt such blatant pandering even appeals to Front voters.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I read that he promised to authorize the police to shoot to kill any suspicious looking guy they encounter. I guess if Zimmerman skips bail then we might have just found where he is heading to.  

[Insula Dei]

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?

[Californian Tony]

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?

Scandals don't see to have had a huge impact in the campaign so far. There have been so many since 2010, that people are probably "saturated".

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Juppé président !

You guys had 17 years already

[Andrea]

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

[Hashemite]

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).

[Meeker]

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.