US House Redistricting: Arizona

[MilesC56]

That ridiculous pseudocarve of Cochise ended. Positive. And then a huge clockwise shift of small patches as a result... including Schweikert's residence, now outside the large R sink (and in the NE Maricopa R district with Quayle). And the official excuse for that R sink waived by breaching the Maricopa-Pinal line there after all.

And CD1 is still in Pima where it does not belong.
Florence does certainly belong in CD1 though.

Their justification for putting CD1 in Pima was that it allowed them to keep Cochise whole.

[Vasall des Midas]

It would seem easy and natural to swap the Pinal portion of CD 4 with the Yavapai portion of CD 1.

Not remotely, actually. Except for Florence which belongs with CD1, the Pinal portion of CD4 belongs with (uh... whatever number they gave what used to be CD6?) Of course, that pushes the "marginal" (= lean D) Maricopa district east... and back into at least pure tossup, if not lean R territory, depending on how it's drawn exactly.
The Yavapai portion of CD1 belongs with CD1. The county line is pretty ridiculous around there, cutting right through the Sedona area. Though taking account of that leaves little justification for keeping the Payson Republicans in CD4...

[Vasall des Midas]

Their justification for putting CD1 in Pima was that it allowed them to keep Cochise whole.

That could have been achieved in other ways though. Most effortlessly by putting all of Cochise in CD1 and extending Giffords into Pinal. Splitting Cochise on a more reasonable line - SV for Giffords, border towns for CD1 - would also have been a reasonable option... and also would have made a lot of sense from a Dem operative POV.

[Skill and Chance]

So how much has Gosar been weakened in AZ-01.  It looks to be the 3rd most Dem-leaning district in the state now?

[Torie]

That ridiculous pseudocarve of Cochise ended. Positive. And then a huge clockwise shift of small patches as a result... including Schweikert's residence, now outside the large R sink (and in the NE Maricopa R district with Quayle). And the official excuse for that R sink waived by breaching the Maricopa-Pinal line there after all.

And CD1 is still in Pima where it does not belong.
Florence does certainly belong in CD1 though.

Their justification for putting CD1 in Pima was that it allowed them to keep Cochise whole.

To get AZ-01 out of Pima, AZ-03 could have taken more of Pima, and without diluting its Hispanic percentage much, but to do that would have made AZ-02 about a point more Pubbie (as more Dem or marginal precincts with significant Hispanic percentages were moved from AZ-02 to AZ-03, to make up for AZ-02 taking that little highly GOP mostly Anglo area in Pima that is now in AZ-01), and we can't have that! We particularly can't have that since there really wasn't anymore available Dem territory for AZ-01 to suck up exchange for losing its Pima salient, to incentive team McNulty and Mathis to go there.

The rationale McNulty had for putting all of Cochise in AZ-02 was that otherwise, it made AZ-01 too erose - and large.  I do agree that all of Cochise should be put in AZ-02 - always have.

[MilesC56]

So how much has Gosar been weakened in AZ-01.  It looks to be the 3rd most Dem-leaning district in the state now?

I'd say its a tossup, maybe even favoring Kirkpatrick.

The old AZ-01 was 44% Obama. I drew the new AZ-01 and got Obama up to 47.9% and had McCain at 50.9%, down from 54%.

Maybe that 4-point swing in Obama's favor could have saved Kirkpatrick in 2010; in any case, she'll be running in a more friendly district during a less hostile year.

[krazen1211]

I wonder if this map can be appropriately gummed up in preclearance proceedings.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I wonder if this map can be appropriately gummed up in preclearance proceedings.

Nah.

The map was designed to be as favorable to the Democrats as possible.

However, expect a judicial challenge to the map.

[CARLHAYDEN]

AZ-9 is certainly a grotesque gerrymander.

Exactly!!!

[Vasall des Midas]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.azredistricting.org%2Fmaps%2Fpubmaps%2F100911%2FLeg-Merge_as_of_100911.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.168218,-111.930907&sspn=12.693328,26.784668&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=7

They reworked some parts of that. http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/Tentative-Final-Maps/Legislative/maps/Tentative%20Final%20Legislative%20Map%20-%20Statewide.jpg

(add " - poster size" at the end of the address for a 140 million pixel version that may crash your computer)

I count 13 utterly safe GOP, 3 usually safe GOP (at least for now - the one in NE Phoenix might get competitive towards the decade's end), 3 tossups two of which tilt R, one D (and the tilt R in Pinal might be safe by decade's end), 2 usually safe Dem, 9 utterly safe Dem seats. After looking at their demographic and competitiveness charts.

[Skill and Chance]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.azredistricting.org%2Fmaps%2Fpubmaps%2F100911%2FLeg-Merge_as_of_100911.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.168218,-111.930907&sspn=12.693328,26.784668&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=7

They reworked some parts of that. http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/Tentative-Final-Maps/Legislative/maps/Tentative%20Final%20Legislative%20Map%20-%20Statewide.jpg

(add " - poster size" at the end of the address for a 140 million pixel version that may crash your computer)

I count 13 utterly safe GOP, 3 usually safe GOP (at least for now - the one in NE Phoenix might get competitive towards the decade's end), 3 tossups two of which tilt R, one D (and the tilt R in Pinal might be safe by decade's end), 2 usually safe Dem, 9 utterly safe Dem seats. After looking at their demographic and competitiveness charts.

So the GOP is basically guaranteed to hold a majority for the decade, but the Dems are basically guaranteed to be able to sustain vetoes?  Sounds fair for a Lean GOP state.

[MilesC56]

Gosar is switching to the 4th.

Good news for Kirkpatrick, since she won't be facing an incumbent.

[Vasall des Midas]

Gosar is switching to the 4th.

Good news for Kirkpatrick, since she won't be facing an incumbent.

Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar asked House candidate Paul Babeu to run in his home district as far back as the fall in order to avoid a Republican primary, both campaigns confirm to POLITICO.

But Babeu, a Pinal County sheriff and Iraq war veteran, told Gosar he was "insane" and began preparing for a campaign in the new 4th District.

"I looked at him and said, 'Are you insane? I don't live there. That's your district.' And he said, 'Paul, you're a rock star. You can win this seat. You're law enforcement and you're military. "I said, 'Paul, the best person to defend District 1 is the District 1 congressman,'" Babeu recalled in an interview with POLITICO Tuesday.

"I saw somebody who is frightened, who is more interested in his own political future," he said of a conversation that he recalls began in October.  "He was trying to clear the field. So whatever he wanted to do, everybody defers to him. Well, that's not how America works. He may be a congressman, but to come in and think he's just going to tell people what they're going to do, that's now how this process works."

Lolsson.

[bgwah]

Arizona's map sort of looks like a hurricane.

[Joe Republic]

How come they didn't want to segregate the Navajo and Hopi any more?  Did they resolve their differences, or did the mapmakers just decide to stop caring about their squabbles?

[MilesC56]

How come they didn't want to segregate the Navajo and Hopi any more?  Did they resolve their differences, or did the mapmakers just decide to stop caring about their squabbles?

I heard they put their differences aside, at least concerning redistricting.

[Senator Snowstalker]

How save is Grijalva?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Grijalva is fine as long as he doesn't call for a boycott of his own state again.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Gosar is switching to the 4th.

Good news for Kirkpatrick, since she won't be facing an incumbent.

Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar asked House candidate Paul Babeu to run in his home district as far back as the fall in order to avoid a Republican primary, both campaigns confirm to POLITICO.

But Babeu, a Pinal County sheriff and Iraq war veteran, told Gosar he was "insane" and began preparing for a campaign in the new 4th District.

"I looked at him and said, 'Are you insane? I don't live there. That's your district.' And he said, 'Paul, you're a rock star. You can win this seat. You're law enforcement and you're military. "I said, 'Paul, the best person to defend District 1 is the District 1 congressman,'" Babeu recalled in an interview with POLITICO Tuesday.

"I saw somebody who is frightened, who is more interested in his own political future," he said of a conversation that he recalls began in October.  "He was trying to clear the field. So whatever he wanted to do, everybody defers to him. Well, that's not how America works. He may be a congressman, but to come in and think he's just going to tell people what they're going to do, that's now how this process works."

Lolsson.

What happens here now?

[Devils30]

Gosar gets to sit back and relax haha

[Vasall des Midas]

What do you mean, "now"? Is there any stunning news out of the state? Or are we still at january 9th news - in which case what happens is Gosar probably loses the primary instead of probably losing the general.

[traininthedistance]

What do you mean, "now"? Is there any stunning news out of the state? Or are we still at january 9th news - in which case what happens is Gosar probably loses the primary instead of probably losing the general.

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/arizona_sheriff_paul_babeu_angrily_denies_ex-boyfr.php

[Vasall des Midas]

Ron Gould must be happy.

[Vasall des Midas]

ballotpedia...

Arizona

Last week, the state legislature contemplated how much money to send to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission in order to replenish its depleted budget. One measure approved by the State Senate approved an additional $1 appropriation (yes, that's not a typo). Yesterday, the commission's executive director Ray Bladine said the commission will file a lawsuit over the state's failure to approve additional funding. Bladine said the commission will run out of money by the end of the month without a supplemental appropriation. The commission cited unanticipated legal expenses as the cause of the early draining of its budget.

[muon2]

ballotpedia...

Arizona

Last week, the state legislature contemplated how much money to send to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission in order to replenish its depleted budget. One measure approved by the State Senate approved an additional $1 appropriation (yes, that's not a typo). Yesterday, the commission's executive director Ray Bladine said the commission will file a lawsuit over the state's failure to approve additional funding. Bladine said the commission will run out of money by the end of the month without a supplemental appropriation. The commission cited unanticipated legal expenses as the cause of the early draining of its budget.

Was it a passed bill appropriation? Budgets often start with $1 line items as place holders for negotiation. They rarely end up there when a bill gets to the floor for a vote.