NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Meeker]

People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

lol, I am sure this seat will remain Democratic, albeit more competitive than under normal circumstances, but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.

I don't see any connection in tactics. Republicans made up nonsense that appeared no where in the final healthcare bill (government is taking control, there are death panels, etc.) while all the Democrats are doing is running ads that detail - using the wording of respected newspapers -  the exact provisions of the bill the Republicans have already voted to support.

[nclib]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I agree that Dems should have no problem winning the special election. Foreign policy and anti-Obama sentiment was the only reason it was even that close.

[cinyc]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

It might be the lowest in the country.  The only districts I've found that are even close are elsewhere in New York.

I agree that Dems should have no problem winning the special election. Foreign policy and anti-Obama sentiment was the only reason it was even that close.

The anti-Obama sentiment is still there, for NY-09 purposes, especially given his recent anti-Israel turn in foreign policy.

But that's not the issue.  Special elections are usually won on machine strength.  The Democrats have it in NY-09.  Republicans don't.  So I doubt the special election will be close, as long as it isn't held on election day in November.  Even if it is, my guess is the Republican candidate will do better than they have against Weiner in the recent past, but still lose by low double digits.

[rbt48]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Say, are most of the foreign born in NY-9 Asians?

[Progressive]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Say, are most of the foreign born in NY-9 Asians?

A big percentage, but many from Russia, and former Soviet areas like Uzbekistan; Latin America, China, Korea, India, Pakistan, Guyana, Israel, etc

[cinyc]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Nope.  According to the 2000 Census Data, NY-09 has the lowest percentage of people born in another US state at 4.03%, followed by NY-05 (4.71%), NY-13 (5.39%), NY-07 (5.60%), NY-03 (5.85%), NY-16 (6.57%), NY-12 (6.92%) and NY-04 (7.15%).

Notice a pattern - well, excluding the Puerto Rico At Large Resident Commissioner (6.13%), 9 of the top 10 are in New York.  CA-31 (7.30%) breaks the string at 9th.  NY-02 (7.34%) follows in 10th place.   IL-04 (8.01%) is 11th, excluding PR.

TN-01 is 31.66% non-Tennessee US born - good for 312th or so out of 437 (435 + PR + DC); Hal Rogers' KY-05 is 17.81% non-Kentucky US born - 96th or so out of 437.

For these purposes, Puerto Rico is not considered another state, which partially explains why some of the heavily Puerto Rican Hispanic NYC and Chicago Hispanic districts are included in the top 10.

The 10 districts with the most out-of-state residents?  As one would expect, 6 of them are in Florida, 2 in Arizona and 2 in Nevada.  FL-14 (68.34%) had the highest percentage of residents born in another state, followed by NV-03 (65.96%) and FL-13 (65.68%).  That's SW Florida and suburban Las Vegas.

Say, are most of the foreign born in NY-9 Asians?

As of 2000, no.  148,738 of the 262,593 foreign-born residents (56.6%) classified themselves as White alone; 73,217 classified themselves as Asian alone (27.9%).   NY-09 is geographically diverse and heavily Gerrymandered.   Among others, Sheepshead Bay has a large Russian and Eastern European Jewish population.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

[freepcrusher]

this seat is going the wrong way and could eventually go republican. Obama did 10 points worse than Al Gore in 2000 in this district.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

this seat is going the wrong way and could eventually go republican. Obama did 10 points worse than Al Gore in 2000 in this district.

Lieberman being on the ticket played a big part in that.

[Dgov]

This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.

[Lunar]

Worst danger for Dems is if Crowley goes with a weak Dem nominee to bolster himself in redistricting

[Gravis Marketing]

but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.

I thought it was rather shocking--well beyond funny--that Republicans used those tactics so successfully in 2010 and then thought it was a good idea to pass a bill with no chance of passage that opened them up to the same attacks thrown back at them.

[Invisible Obama]

Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.

It's still 56% Kerry, though and Obama's under-performance doesn't undercut that fact, there's very Democratic presence here. 2008 numbers are lopsided, 2004 ones are much more accurate. Critz was supposed to lose PA-12 because Obama did worse than Kerry, but that didn't pan out at all.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.

Well I doubt the Democratic nominee will be black, so that's pretty moot. Also they hold a grand total of one D+5 seat (as this is), and that's a seat in Illinois so the PVI is no doubt inflated unlike how it's deflated here (IL-10).

[Meeker]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

[cinyc]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

[Lunar]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

..which helps the Republicans, funnily enough. Since the Republicans actually want to put up the strongest candidate possible but the Democrats are trying to thread the needle of putting up someone strong, but not strong enough to be able to challenge Ackerman or Crowley in a primary post-redistricting

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?

[Dgov]

Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?

Such people are usually not good candidates.

EDIT:  Grammar fail

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?

Isn't there some period after leaving Congress during which you have to pretend that you're not a lobbyist?

[cinyc]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

..which helps the Republicans, funnily enough. Since the Republicans actually want to put up the strongest candidate possible but the Democrats are trying to thread the needle of putting up someone strong, but not strong enough to be able to challenge Ackerman or Crowley in a primary post-redistricting

Maybe.  Maybe not.  I don't think the 2011 primaries will be much to write home about in terms of turnout.  2011 is an off-off year for New York City elections.  I don't even think NYC city council seats are up, just some judges, county committee seats and the like.  But if they're holding a primary election that day anyway, they might as well hold a special election at the same time.  The workers will be there.

I still say NY-09 is fools' gold for Republicans.  The blue-collar types who live in parts of the district were more attracted to Bush in 2004 because of his national security credibility and McCain because he wasn't Obama.  That doesn't necessarily translate to a Congressional race, especially one with low turnout where machine politics matters.  The Democrats have the real machine there.

[Lunar]

It all depends on the Democratic candidate. If Crowley picks someone palatable to the district, as is quite likely (but he has mixed goals), it'd be an uphill climb for the GOP.  But we'll have to see the Democrat first.

Bloomberg won this district with 70% of the vote, it's not complete fool's gold, it's just a complex situation where the Democrats are favored.

[patrick1]

I still say NY-09 is fools' gold for Republicans.  The blue-collar types who live in parts of the district were more attracted to Bush in 2004 because of his national security credibility and McCain because he wasn't Obama.  That doesn't necessarily translate to a Congressional race, especially one with low turnout where machine politics matters.  The Democrats have the real machine there.

Agreed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Former Rep. Liz Holtzman has become a top contender for the Democratic nomination.

[Meeker]

Perfect candidate.