2012 NDP leadership convention

[DL]

The NB NDP is so small, they can't really afford to kick anyone out. They are probably glad that Cardy is willing to lead them despite almost no salary and no seat for the time being. Beggars can't be choosers!

[Senator MaxQue]

The poll of a couple pages ago got mentioned in a Mulcair campaign email.

[RogueBeaver]

Funke's latest post.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/03/money-momentum-and-mudslinging-mark-final-week-of-ndp-leadership-race/

[lilTommy]

Here's an interesting list, former leadership candidates endrosements (via rabble, give credit eh:

Mulcair: James Laxer, John Paul Harney, Lorne Nystrom, Steven Langdon, Ian Waddell = 5

Nash: Alexa McDonough, Pierre Ducasse = 2

Topp: Ed Broadbent = 1

Unaligned: Douglas Campbell, Audrey McLaughlin, Dave Barrett, Svend Robinson, Marcel Hatch, Bill Blaikie, Joe Comartin, Bev Meslo = 8

Deceased: Tommy Douglas, David Lewis, Frank Howard, Rosemary Brown, Simon de Jong, Jack Layton = 6 (i thought it would have been hilarious if one of them had endoresed someone)

Left Party: Howard McCurdy, Roger Lagasse = 2

Deceased and Left Party: Hazen Argue = 1

 - Mulcair actually has a pretty broad range of support of moderates & leftists:
John Harney - first fluently bilingual candidate pushing growth in Quebec
James Laxer - father of nationalist/socialist "Waffle", runner up to Broadbent
Lorne Nystrom - one of the most "moderate" candidates who had strong support in western Canada, one of the youngest MPs elected
Steven Langdon - associated with Ontario Labour establishment wing of NDP

[Hatman]

When did McCurdy leave the party?

ETA: did a google search, and I couldnt find out why he left the party, I did find this that proves he did: http://www2.canada.com/windsorstar/news/story.html?id=90b9e179-b05d-48ac-9194-e751dfb71674

This is pretty disappointing, I used to like him.

[lilTommy]

I know! same here, i did a wiki search and i am "reading into it" that he left after he got a nomination snub...
"McCurdy campaigned for the Ontario New Democratic Party nomination in Windsor—Sandwich in the buildup to the 1995 provincial election, but was unexpectedly defeated by Arlene Rousseau. McCurdy had been endorsed by Premier Bob Rae, while Rousseau was an ally of party dissidents such as Peter Kormos."

But as of 2003 he had endorsed Blaikie... odd, hes fallen into mild obscurity. A windsrr Dipper might know more.

[Sibboleth]

James Laxer - father of nationalist/socialist "Waffle", runner up to Broadbent

The correct word is 'entryist'.

[RogueBeaver]

At Issue panel said they think if Mulcair doesn't hit 30% on the first ballot he's in trouble. Dunno if that's true, but Funke's numbers show he'll get closer to 25%. What I find interesting is Cullen surging at Nash's expense- confirming my suspicion that Cullen could very well be the ABM consensus candidate acceptable to all wings. Dewar could've shared said role if he spoke French.

[Hatman]

My final post before the election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/ndp-leadership-endorsement-map-final.html

I leave for Toronto tomorrow at noon. I guess none of you will be there? I can PM anyone my cell# if they're interested in meeting up.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I haven't said anything in this thread so far, but I will be following this with immense interest, Earl.

[Hashemite]

What is the process and all that jazz? I know the CBC has coverage tomorrow, and I want to watch it a bit, but what is the best time to catch the real action (results)?

[RogueBeaver]

The first ballot results will be announced at 9 AM. One ballot every hour on the hour till someone goes over the top.

[lilTommy]

I think today are the candidate speaches/presentations and then a Jack Layton tribute tonight at 7pm.

yup first results in the morning, probably go at least three rounds depending on how many decide to drop out early on.

I'm watching it live on CPAC as well

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a CBC livestream.

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2190149724

[RogueBeaver]

Cullen's speech sounds good- impassioned plea for party unity, plus throwing his pipeline opposition into the mix.

[lilTommy]

SO far yes... it was clearly Cullen, personable and understated and very jack-esk but all him. I really like his simple presentation

Paul was all hype, very clearly different from Cullen and off putting, but brought out some big guns i think. His french is still terrible and i think that will be his undoing, even after this speach.

Brian also brough out Biggies like Shirley Douglas and Gordon Pinsent... He sounds better than i have seen him in the past, confident and passionate, but hes not saying anything new (ok we know your a social democrat) For me, he has been the divisive candidate here and with his too-quick-jump into the leadership, attachs on Mulcair and Eds seniors moment... i'm not sure he sold it to undecideds.

[RogueBeaver]

Another Dewar problem is that his professed combativeness clearly isn't there. To paraphrase his own Mulcair jibe, he's all happy and no warrior. Harper and Rae would eat him for breakfast.

[Peter the Lefty]

Another Dewar problem is that his professed combativeness clearly isn't there. To paraphrase his own Mulcair jibe, he's all happy and no warrior. Harper and Rae would eat him for breakfast.

In English Canada, that is.  Daniel Paille would eat him for breakfast in Quebec. 

[lilTommy]

... I could eat Dewar for breakfast with my franco-ontarian-ness

Ok, Niki just came out with a Madona mic... strutted up there like tony robbins... hilarious, that just made my day! ... she doesn't sound angry or have angy eyebrows; shes impressing me coming off comfortable and NO table to talk to, like cullen. i actually ranked her higher than i had intended earlier this week.

[RogueBeaver]

Dunno if Mulcair satisfied his more leftie critics- most of his pitch was experience/electability.

[Χahar]

So the whole thing will be done by the time I wake up? That's a shame.

[RogueBeaver]

So the whole thing will be done by the time I wake up? That's a shame.

Depends how late- this thing could go on for 4-5 ballots, so if you're up by 11 AM your time you might see a ballot.

[Senator MaxQue]

At 11AM, it shoul be only the 2nd ballot, from what I read.

[Peter the Lefty]

I hear Mulcair's speech got cut short by the drummers.  Actually, that makes for hilarious symbolism of his campaign, though it would be much funnier if it happened to Topp.  Mulcair's reminding me more of Romney every minute now, first saying he wanted to decriminalize pot and now saying he wants to keep it illegal...for bulk water exports, now against them...staunchly pro-Israel, now not as much (he is getting tons of Israel lobby money, though, and Lorne Nystrom, one of his big backers, is on the board of CIJA)...in favor of shutting down the tar sands, and now against it. 

I still cringe to imagine him as NDP leader. 

[asexual trans victimologist]

The thing about Mulcair is that he's supposed to be the only one who can keep NDP on top in Quebec, or at least, clearly on top. With Cullen or somebody I'd imagine the NDP would have to focus on some sort of strategy involving the Western provinces?

How are we handicapping this? Who do we think is the likeliest and unlikeliest at this stage?