National Tracking Poll Thread

[Fuzzy]

So let's see:


Fox News:  Romney +2

Gallup: Romney +2

Rasmussen:  Romney +4

and

Investor's Business Journal/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP:  Obama +8

CNN:  Obama +9




Huh

[Fuzzy]

And this:

Ipsos/Reuters
 4/12-15/12; 891 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
Reuters story

National

2012 President
 47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (chart)

They had Obama up by 11 a month ago.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Romney's pretty clearly recovered or been granted a bump at least somewhat, which wasn't something I necessarily thought wouldn't be the case even though I was holding out hope that it wouldn't be and am still heartened by how small it seems to have been relatively speaking, but the actual polls are all over the place and averaged out slightly favor Obama, which is about what I might have expected at this stage.

[krazen1211]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

I'm sure a tax policy that was outrageous would.

Out of curiosity, under what circumstances, if any, would you actually accept a marginal tax increase on the highest bracket or couple of brackets?

Not would, has. We've already tried something very similar to the Buffett rule.

It would be extremely easy for an unscrupulous Pelosi to simply remove a '0' from the end of the Buffett rule tax and attack the middle class. Why would the middle class want to support the slippery slope of higher tax?

Horesepucky.

[krazen1211]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

There were some issues that voters had with this particular tax reform proposal, but the vast majority of Americans believe that higher income earners can and should pay a little more in taxes.

Sorry.

Clearly of course not the majority of the voting public. New Jersey municipalities across the state have also voted down higher tax.

[Governor Scott]

The GOP made gains across the board in 2010.  Regardless, Obama is currently campaigning on a very popular issue.  I don't think what you are saying will be much of a factor.

You keep thinking that to be true, but people don't actually vote that way when higher taxes are threatening. See tax initiative 1098.

Oh, so if Obama stops campaigning on an issue that 60% of Americans agree with him on, that will help him win in the general?  Nice try.

Uh huh. That's why of course outrageous tax policies fail even in King County.

There were some issues that voters had with this particular tax reform proposal, but the vast majority of Americans believe that higher income earners can and should pay a little more in taxes.

Sorry.

Clearly of course not the majority of the voting public. New Jersey municipalities across the state have also voted down higher tax.

Again, tax policies might be rejected by the voters if the voters feel that there was problems with the legislation, like what happened in Washington state.  If there is a plan in place that leads to higher taxes on the middle-class or defeats the point of having progressive taxation, voters - even those who favor raising taxes on the rich - will oppose it.  Now, you can spin this any way you'd like, but the numbers show most Americans nationwide not agreeing with your position.

[krazen1211]

Just to keep it interesting... here's the latest CNN poll:
Obama 52
Romney 43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/04/16/rel4a.pdf.

Crap poll. CNN hasn't exactly been the gold standard in national polling.

Questionablecrosstabsoutlierjunkpoll

or

QCTOJP, for short.

[Jayhawker]

And this:

Ipsos/Reuters
 4/12-15/12; 891 registered voters, 3.3% margin of error
 Mode: Live telephone interviews
Reuters story

National

2012 President
 47% Obama (D), 43% Romney (R) (chart)

They had Obama up by 11 a month ago.

Well, then this is the big one for me. As much as I'd like to think Romney is leading right now, I still think Obama has a small lead, within the margin of error.

What this poll shows, though, is that Governor Romney is closing the gap, and those who thought the election was over and Obama is guaranteed a 2nd term are mistaken.

[Sam Spade]

We are now at the point where we can actually start looking at general election polls without laughing too much.

As I said middle of last year, this particular election cycle still looks to me to be a reversion to the world of 1996-2004 at all levels.  I really don't see how Romney/Obama go below 47 or above 52 in the end.  And I don't see how the Democrats take the House back.  Senate is still 50-50 in my view - the seats that can flip in a 1996-2004 world (i.e. <10%) are:

DEM to GOP: Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin
GOP to DEM: Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada (Indiana could flip if open)

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

various simultaneous polls are pretty likely to be all over the place until November. the obvious thing to do for everyone is shut up and trust Nate Silver

[ajb]

various simultaneous polls are pretty likely to be all over the place until November. the obvious thing to do for everyone is shut up and trust Nate Silver

Speaking of which, by this time in 2008 he was doing much more than he is now towards projecting the general election. Looking forward to seeing that happen soon!

[argentarius]

For god's sake guys it clearly matters if one guy is up on another guy nationally. If someone wins the PV by 1 percent I guarantee they'll win the EV.

Uh, nope. While he prevailed by 2.4% in the PV, Bush would have lost Ohio if you moved about 60k votes to the other side. In 1876, Tilden won the PV with over 3%.

In theory you could obtain a majority of the EVs with only around 24% of the PV.

Again, the PV is useless.

Theoretically, yes, but in reality, national polls are an indicator of how the states will vote. 1876 was a long time ago and Tilden racked up huge margins in many states, the likes of which we will not see this year, apart from DC, maybe Utah.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Romney is now up 48-43 on Gallup.

[marvelrobbins]

That proves Gallup Is both a joke and using 2010 numbers for likely voters.

Even then they had Republicans winning by 18 and they won by 6.

[cavalcade]

That proves Gallup Is both a joke and using 2010 numbers for likely voters.

Technically it's a poll of registered voters but they may be weighting things weirdly.

They're also polling 40% on cell phones.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Rasmussen:
Romney 47%
Obama 43%

Gallup:
Romney 48%
Obama 44%

These polls are obviously wrong. Dailykos & PPP are much more trustworthy and unbiased.

[asexual trans victimologist]

PPP certainly is, anyway.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

PPP certainly is, anyway.

Well, Rasmussen's final tracking poll from last time was Obama 52/McCain 46, so excuse me if I don't completely discount them.

[Governor Scott]

Why won't you folks understand that polls are not immediately rejected just because the numbers may not be on our side?  Liberals here have no-noed polls COUNTLESS times that give Obama the advantage simply because certain factors make the poll unreliable.  We trust polling firms like PPP because more election results confirm its credibility more-so than certain other firms.  The remarks I'm seeing here are quite boastful and immature; of course, it's hard to expect better from some individuals here.

[asexual trans victimologist]

PPP certainly is, anyway.

Well, Rasmussen's final tracking poll from last time was Obama 52/McCain 46, so excuse me if I don't completely discount them.

They were terrible in 2010 and their crosstabs are questionable, but they were good last Presidential election, yes.

[King]

With the kind of fighting going on in this thread over poll quality, you'd think the election was this upcoming Tuesday.

[Sam Spade]

With the kind of fighting going on in this thread over poll quality, you'd think the election was this upcoming Tuesday.

Very true.  I really don't particularly trust Rasmussen or PPP to a certain extent at this point because they both have an agenda of some sort to promote.

Nationally, what I can't figure out about Rasmussen in 2010 is that his Congressional generic ballot was so off, yet his partisan ID numbers and Obama approval were dead-on accurate.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

Rasmussen:
Romney 46%
Obama 45%

Gallup:
Romney 48%
Obama 43%

At least Romney's holding the same amount of support McCain got last election, if it moves below that we might be in trouble.

[Fuzzy]

Scott be trollin'. 

[You kip if you want to...]

The President back ahead with Scott: 47-45.