Mexico 2012

[ag]

Slight advantage to Lopez Obrador. Seems like Ebrard is going to accept - he is speaking right now.

[ag]

Yep, Lopez Obrador is ahead on 3 out of 5 questions asked and Ebrard is not running.

[RodPresident]

AMLO is my candidate in Mexico. He's a progresive hero and legitimate President of Mexico.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Yep, Lopez Obrador is ahead on 3 out of 5 questions asked and Ebrard is not running.

Ugh, it looks like I will be supporting whoever the PAN nominates...

[jaichind]

If it is AMLO that will be the only candidate of the Left, based on what ag has said before, does it not look like that some PAN supporters will vote tactically PRI to block AMLO.  If so does this not further erodes the chances of a PAN victory and makes a PRI victory more certain?

[ag]

Yep, Lopez Obrador is ahead on 3 out of 5 questions asked and Ebrard is not running.

Ugh, it looks like I will be supporting whoever the PAN nominates...

What this means is that, in the end,  it is quite likely we'll all wind up holding the noses and voting PRI. Unless, of course, a panista makes a spectacular performance that makes him or her credible in the race till the end.

[ag]

AMLO is my candidate in Mexico. He's a progresive hero and legitimate President of Mexico.

He is not progressive, not a hero, not legitimate and not a president of anything. This nomination, essentially, serves Mexican presidency to Enrique Peña Nieto of PRI (or anybody else whom the PRI deigns to nominate).

[ag]

If it is AMLO that will be the only candidate of the Left, based on what ag has said before, does it not look like that some PAN supporters will vote tactically PRI to block AMLO.  If so does this not further erodes the chances of a PAN victory and makes a PRI victory more certain?

PAN strategic collapse could happen. It also makes it extremely unlikely that, if it happens, it is going to help anyone but PRI.

Had Ebrard been the nominee, collapsing PAN would have made this election interesting. Though PRI is the strongest of the three main parties, as last year’s elections have shown, when PAN and PRD are united in keeping it out of power they, usually, can. The trick is to unite them. And here Ebrard could have made it, but Lopez can’t.

A lot panista voters could have voted Ebrard - he is a “nice guy from a good family”, who has been a surprisingly good and efficient mayor. Overall, he is a sort of a leftist for whom a "civilized" rightist could vote. Of course, the Catholic right hates him - he has made a point of being anti-clerical, sticking it to the cardinal (more so than, say, Lopez Obrador himself).  Also he is twice divorced, and in a public relationship with the ex-ambassador of Honduras  -  the high morality crowd wouldn’t like him either. But to secular, “technocratic” and “neoliberal” right-wingers, he presents a reasonably friendly face.  Yes, the latest PAN administration has screwed up, no we don’t want PRI back to power so soon (if ever – they had been screwing the country for decades) so Ebrard could have been just the ticket. In fact, he is also reasonably acceptable to a fair share of priista voters – like Lopez, he comes from the Grand Old Party, but, unlike Lopez , he hasn’t gone out of his way to offend those who stayed.

Lopez is not getting ANY of the PAN vote. He has no particular appeal to the clericals, but the “modern right” is simply scared of him. Not because of his leftism – he is substantially to the right of, say, Cardenas, and Cardenas does not cause a similar reaction. It is his personality: aggressive, in your face, with messianic pretentions and a fair dosage of militant nationalism to boot.  His refusal to accept the last election result has cost him dearly among the moderates: in Mexico City a lot of people still hate his guts for that camp on Reforma (try talking to cab drivers about him – he cost them a fair share of livelihood back then). He is that sort of a bombastic, archaic and traditionalist Latin American national socialist that makes a lot of people shudder.

In order to win he has to get the voters off PRI directly: that party still has some of the traditional national-socialist electorate that he could appeal to. But with PRI riding high, why would anyone who hasn’t left over the last 25 years leave now?

And, of course, if it starts looking like Lopez has a chance, panistas are gowing to fly screaming towards Pena Nieto, or whoever is the PRI candidate: it’s an evil, but it’s a lesser evil.

My conjecture is, Ebrard folded up so readily because he figures out this time the left has no chance anyway. They just lost Michoacan (came third). Come next year, they are only going to be in power in DF, Oaxaca (elected w/ PAN help) and Chiapas. PAN has a bit more: Baja California, Baja California Sur (recent pick-up from PRD), Sonora, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Puebla and Sinaloa (the last two elected w/ PRD help). Unless I am mistaken, everything else will now be governed by PRI.  Pena Nieto is ahead in all polls, even in DF. In fact, in the capital PRI’s Paredes seems is ahead in the polls for the city mayoralty (elections to be held on the same day as presidential).  It’s not a good starting point – and he figured out, if he gracefully yields this time, he is going to be ahead in his claim for the 2018 nomination, which might be a lot more fruitful. Perhaps, he is right. But this is going to be a dispiriting race now.

[jaichind]

Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones yesterday announced that he would not seek to be the PRI presidential candidate in next year's election.  Which means that Pena Nieto, now is unopposed in PRI .  The other main opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) last week chose defeated 2006 candidate, AMLO, as its nominee, meaning that the ruling PAN is the only major party yet to select its candidate. 

From a game theory point of view Nieto should run a center right 1990s PRI type campaign (like de la Madrid or Salinas) rather than a leftist populist 1970s PRI campaign.  If he runs to the right that will most likely mean that AMLO will gain space on the center left making him the main challanger to Nieto.  Once that happens there will be tactical voting by PAN voters to block AMLO given the bitter memories of 2006.  If Nieto ran a center left campaign that will squeeze the political space of AMLO and give an opening to whoever is the PAN candidate.  PRD voters in this case will not necessary vote for Nieto to block PAN.  The PRD would rather PAN wins again because PRI losing for the third time might split the party and cause a realigment on the left to the benifit of PRD.  Given the lay of the political land, I suspect Nieto would run a technicratic market oriented campaign.

[ag]

Chances are, there will be a lot of PAN strategic voting for PN in any case. AMLO is too much of a hated scare character. Of course, by the same logic AMLO should do all he can to present himself as not scary to panistas: in order not so much that they vote for him (not likely), but that they don't panic and stay w/ their own candidate: AMLO can get 35% of the vote, it is hard for him to go much above 40%, so his task is to keep PN down. He's, actually, been trying, calling about "love", "values" and being, essentially a man of the Faith.

Meanwhile, of course, PAN is the only one still w/out a candidate. Which also means that, unless the other parties nominate "fake" primary candidates (as AMLO has suggested they might), they'll be the only one who are allowed to campaign for the moment (and who'll get funding for these purposes): legally, only "pre-campaigns" (i.e., primary campaigns) are allowed for the moment. Cordero has just said he is not bowing out of the race, and neither do, for the moment, Vazquez Mota (ahead in the polls) or Creel.

The latest poll from El Universal has shown PN far ahead, w/ VM second and AMLO third.

[ag]

PAN Primary was today (well, yesterday already). Final results are still outstanding, but Josefina Vazquez Mota has defeated both Ernesto Cordero (the favorite of President Calderon) and Santiago Creel. Both have conceded, so Vázquez Mota becomes the first female major party nominee for presidency in Mexican history.

As neither PRI, nor PRD have had competitive primaries (with Manlio Fabio Beltrones and Marcelo Ebrard conceding before any such vote could be held), the candidates are:

PRI/PVEM/PANAL (the latter still subject to last minute renegotiations) Enrique Peña Nieto
PAN Josefina Vázquez Mota
PRD/PT/MC (the latter is Movimento Ciudadano, ex-Convergencia) Andrés Manuel López Obrador

[redcommander]

It would be great if Mexico elected its first female president this year, but PAN is probably too unpopular to give her much of chance.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

PAN Primary was today (well, yesterday already). Final results are still outstanding, but Josefina Vazquez Mota has defeated both Ernesto Cordero (the favorite of President Calderon) and Santiago Creel. Both have conceded, so Vázquez Mota becomes the first female major party nominee for presidency in Mexican history.

As neither PRI, nor PRD have had competitive primaries (with Manlio Fabio Beltrones and Marcelo Ebrard conceding before any such vote could be held), the candidates are:

PRI/PVEM/PANAL (the latter still subject to last minute renegotiations) Enrique Peña Nieto
PAN Josefina Vázquez Mota
PRD/PT/MC (the latter is Movimento Ciudadano, ex-Convergencia) Andrés Manuel López Obrador

How do you think she will fare?

[ag]

It's VERY uphill for her. Peña Nieto is far ahead, and even though his campaign is desultory (and, frankly, outright lazy) and scandals have been simmering, he is still and odds-on favorite. López Obrador is still behind in the polls, but he both has very dedicated support and great political talents. So far, I would have to acknowledge that his campaign has been really well-run and he is working hard for it. Given the funk PAN is in, JVM isn't very well positioned. Add to this her personal animosity w/ "The Teacher": the Union will be doing everything it can to screw her. Tough.

[ag]

On the other hand, in a somewhat old news missed on this forum, the electoral tribunal has annulled the PRI victory mayoral elections in the Michoacan capital of Morelia and ordered the new polls. That election was extremely close, so the tribunal decided to take into account some fairly trivial violations of the law. The margin in the gobernatorial election was larger and the PRI victory there was sustained.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Josefina Vazquez Mota of the ruling National Action Party (PAN) has drawn closer to front-runner Enrique Pena Nieto ahead of Mexico's July presidential election, but Pena Nieto still leads by 16 percentage points, a poll showed on Thursday.

In the poll by Consulta Mitofsky, Pena Nieto of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had the support of 40 percent of voters surveyed, with Vazquez Mota at 24 percent and leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador at 18 percent.

Vazquez Mota has narrowed the gap behind Pena Nieto by about 5 percentage points in the past six weeks as support for the former governor of the State of Mexico falls. Vazquez Mota is the first female presidential candidate from any of Mexico's main three political parties

THANK YOU BASED GOD!

[afleitch]

Who are the 'anti-clerical' candidates?

[Sibboleth]

Who are the 'anti-clerical' candidates?

Anyone who's not PAN, unless things have changed greatly.

[ag]

Who are the 'anti-clerical' candidates?

Anyone who's not PAN, unless things have changed greatly.

There are no really anti-clerical candidates as such. I guess, Ebrard would have been one. Lopez Obrador has been making a lot of show of being a Catholic recently. Though, of course, it's only PANistas who are definitely pro-Church.

[ag]

This Mitofsky poll movement is pretty negligible, mostlyll within the margin of error (except, perhaps for the difference between the two leaders, which is just outside of it). Just to report it fully

EPN (PRI) 40.4%
JVM (PAN) 24%
AMLO (PRD) 17.7%

Peña Nieto is still the definite favorite.

[Vasall des Midas]

No such thing as "anti-clerical" candidates. Candidates with anti-pro-clerical rhetoric, aye.

[ag]

PRI and PANAL failed to agree on a coalition, so Madam Teacher has nominated her own candidate: one Gabriel Quadri, an environmentalist engineer, who is politically unknown, but gives an impression of being more rightist than leftist in other dimensions - though, I haven't yet figured out what he is. Pre-campaigns are over, so the final candidate list seems to be:

PRI/PVEM Enrique Peña Nieto
PAN Josefina Vázquez Mota
PRD/PT/MC (the latter is Movimento Ciudadano, ex-Convergencia) Andrés Manuel López Obrador
PANAL Gabriel Quadri de la Torre

[ag]

Yeah, having looked at Quadri's published program, he will play out as a rightist in Mexico: he is for letting private capital into Pemex (with Petrobras being the model) and opening of the energy sector to private investment. This makes him a rightist in Mexico.

Overall, he will be the "liberal" candidate in the election - in a way, taking over also the space of the defunct Social-Democratic Alternative from the last election. Environment, environment, environment, promote abortion rights and same-sex couple rights, "discuss" drug legalizatoin, etc., etc. But all of that does not make him a "leftist" in the Mexican context. Given his stance on energy, he is a rightist.

[ag]

El Universal poll (a few days back, before PANAL nominated Quadri). Among those who name a preferred candidate it is:

Peña Nieto (PRI) 48%
Vazgez Mota (PAN) 32%
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 20%

[ag]

Looks like Mexican electorate is about to give PAN a serious licking.

Today's nationwide presidential election poll in the Milenio (ignoring the undecideds and renormalziing) gives

Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 52%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 26%
Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 21%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

In Reforma there is a poll from Mexico City (also, ignoring the undecideds)

For mayor

Mancera (PRD/PT/MC) 55%
Paredes (PRI/PVEM) 30%
Miranda (PAN) 11%
Guerra (PANAL) 2%

Interestingly, the last three candidates are all women - but the lone guy will win )

For president (this is only within the city limits, not even the metro area):

Lopez Obrador (PRD/PT/MC) 45%
Pena Nieto (PRI/PVEM) 35%
Vazquez Mota (PAN) 18%
Quadri (PANAL) 2%

Vazquez Mota has had a horrid few weeks since securing nomination. Campaign is really badly run, she herself seems on the verge of a physical collapse. They just had a huge reshuffle - bringing in the Calderonistas, who had previuosly supported Cordero. Still, I am afraid, once she drops belo Lopez Obrador (increasingly likely), she'll collapse.