Margins, Obama vs. Cain, Gingrich, and Romney

[pbrower2a]

PPP and Quinnipiac now consider Rick Santorum relevant after the Iowa caucuses. So far they poll only two states on how R.S. would do against President Obama, but those (Florida by Quinnipiac and North Carolina by PPP) are critical to any Republican success in defeating President Obama if possible. Quinnipiac now ignores Gingrich and didn't mention Paul in a potential matchup against President Obama in Florida. I may drop Gingrich at any time if he himself drops out or becomes irrelevant.

For Santorum, those are only polls from 2012, as Santorum was insignificant before the Iowa caucuses.

under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Two polls by Quinnipiac. First, New Jersey:

President Barack Obama tops Romney 48 - 38 percent, including 42 - 36 percent among independent voters.

New Jersey voters give Obama a split 49 - 48 percent job approval rating and say 49 - 46 percent he deserves to be reelected. 

Nothing is shown for other possible Presidential matchups. Quinnipiac has
extensive results on the Governor and legislative bodies, which are probably more relevant. If Romney doesn't have a chance to win New Jersey against President Obama, then  neither does anyone else. 


...and the definitive swing state:

Ohio voters give President Obama 51 - 44 percent thumbs down on his job performance and say 51 - 45 percent he does not deserve a second term in the Oval Office, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

BUT -- no Republican defeats him:

In the general election, Romney has 42 percent to President Barack Obama's 44 percent in the race for the state's crucial Electoral College votes. ....

The Obama - Romney virtual tie in the general election is in line with previous Quinnipiac University polls. In five surveys since July, the two men have swapped the lead back and forth with four points being the largest margin between them.

In today's survey, Obama holds leads of 48 - 37 percent over Santorum, 48 - 39 percent over Paul and 52 - 38 percent over Gingrich.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1690


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

The ballot test for the general election is a statistical dead heat. Governor Romney captures 45% of the vote in a Presidential ballot test among Florida voters, while 46% indicate they would vote for President Obama, and 9% are undecided.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/fla-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney-who-leads-i-4-corridor

The body of the article has a chart suggesting how Florida itself splits by cities. It simply does not transfer well to this format through an obvious clip-and-paste.  In essence, President Obama does extremely well in Miami, very well in Orlando, OK in Tampa, not at all well in Jacksonville, and very badly in West Palm. This is a statistical tie, which is more significant than the hue. Like North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia the state bounces around an even split.

...At this stage the President is nearly even in most of the obvious swing states, which is about where he was in the latter part of the summer of 2008 with Mitt Romney standing in for John McCain. In effect President Obama has many possible ways to victory and few for defeat. Against anyone but Mitt Romney the President stands to win somewhere between Clinton in 1996 and Reagan in 1984 with a mean (I would guess) suggesting Eisenhower in 1956.

Another way to look at the Obama-Romney matchup is to see that it now looks much like a replay of the 2000 election with President Obama in the role of Al Gore (both seem to lose New Hampshire) except that President Obama has effectively locked up Colorado and Nevada to adjust to the shift in electoral votes since 2000... but this time President Obama has about a 50-50 chance in a raft of states scattered about the country (New Hampshire itself, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Arizona) that the Republicans absolutely must win. These states are different enough politically that Mitt Romney cannot tailor an approach that wins them all. Mitt Romney is going to need a mass shift of support from Obama to himself to win. That is still possible, but I can't see how he can do it.  If the President locks down even one of these states on any issue  he wins.  He has not yet won, and there is plenty of time for a mass shift of voter attitudes.

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8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Texas, PPP, January 2012

Texas Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

...not too bad for a state that the President lost decisively in 2008, has spent little time in, and has no cultural affinities to.

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 45%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Something of a surprise. Maybe left-wing "class warfare" really is a losing proposition in Texas! Is Gingrich going nuts?

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 40%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 46%
Undecided....................................................... 14%

Q10 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 49%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q13 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 42%
Rick Santorum................................................ 49%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

A third-party candidate from the Right does NOT swing Texas (I am not showing that). 

...Perry dropped out today, but he won't be of any help to the GOP as a VP candidate.


under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
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8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Marist has highly-detailed polling results on New York State as a potential battleground between President Barack Obama  against each of the remaining Republicans:

The president leads his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, by 23 percentage points among registered voters statewide. Nearly six in ten -- 58% -- are for Obama while 35% support Romney, and 7% are undecided. ...

In a hypothetical contest between the president and Newt Gingrich, 63% favor Obama compared with 31% for Gingrich. Six percent are undecided. ...

When pitted against Rick Santorum, 61% of registered voters support Obama while 33% are for Santorum, and 6% are undecided. Against Ron Paul, the president has the support of 62% compared with 28% for Paul. Nine percent are undecided.

Let's put it this way: the President has a better chance of winning Texas than the Republican nominee will have of winning New York.

...University poll, Wisconsin. Only one Presidential matchup:

Q29
If the 2012 election for President were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama, the
Democrat or for Mitt Romney, the Republican?


Obama 336 48%
Romney 280 40%

No other binary matchups are shown

This question and response suggests that any bias in sampling does not favor the President or Democrats on the whole, in view of how an often-embattled Governor is seen:

Q15
(I’m now going to read you a list of people and organizations. Please tell me if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of them or if you haven't heard enough about him yet to have an opinion.)
Scott Walker?


Favorable 353 50%
Unfavorable 314 45%

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/MLSPJanToplines.pdf



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney runs even with President Barack Obama 45 - 45 percent in Florida, while the president holds a strong 50 - 39 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Today's results compare to a 46 - 43 percent Romney lead over Obama January 11 and a 47 - 40 percent Romney lead September 22. ...

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum trails Obama 49 - 40 percent while Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul trails the president 47 - 39 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1695


Q consistently gets results more R-leaning than do other pollsters... so although this poll looks like a decline for President Obama it is an improvement over the most recent Q poll.

PPP may still have binary matchups to release for Minnesota... and will be polling Missouri and Ohio, two other legitimate swing states this weekend. Those will be interesting.



under 1% white
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3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall, Pennsylvania:

(President Obama) led former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 41 percent to 30 percent and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, 43 percent to 30 percent. Kerry won the state by 2.5 percentage points.

Madonna said the poll asked about the other Republican frontrunner, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, but most of that polling took place before Gingrich surged in national polls. So the Gingrich results were scrapped, he said.

More bad news for the president: only 44 percent believe he deserves re-election and 49 percent think it's time for a change. That's a little better than a 42 percent re-election/52 percent time-for-a-change ratio in the October F&M poll. The question was not asked in the 2004 poll.

Read more: http://citizensvoice.com/news/new-poll-produces-mixed-results-for-obama-1.1262751#ixzz1kb8Gvyju

Results involving Gingrich are deemed obsolete in the source and suppressed.  A binary matchup between the President and Congressman Ron Paul is not shown. For this poll I am blanking Pennsylvania for Gingrich and Paul because the change involving Obama vs. Romney is huge.  It's hard to imagine Ron Paul being down by only 3% in Pennsylvania if Mitt Romney is down by 11%.

The newspaper article suggests what as I see as the norm in Pennsylvania in an election year (as in Michigan): the state looks like an over-ripe fruit about ready to drop into the Republican roster of wins only to slip away as Democrats get their act together.

Speaking of Michigan -- I got polled this week.






under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Minnesota

Minnesota Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 54%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 39%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 38%
Undecided....................................................... 11%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 52%
Rick Santorum................................................ 40%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012612.pdf

Boring!

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Michigan -- EPIC/Detroit Free Press

In a new Michigan poll, Obama has taken the head-to-head lead, 48%-40%.

Romney remains stronger against Obama than former House Speaker Gingrich, the poll showed. Obama leads Gingrich 51%-38%

Two months ago the same pollster had Romney up on President Obama 46-41. Nothing is shown on Obama vs. Paul or Obama vs. Santorum.

http://www.freep.com/article/20120126/NEWS15/120126046/New-poll-Obama-takes-48-40-lead-over-Romney-in-Michigan



under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Virginia has voted for the Democratic nominee for President only twice since the 1948 -- the LBJ blowout and the 2008 election. It looks very close between Obama and Romney (virtual tie) but a blowout for the President against Gingrich.   

While Romney runs virtually even with Obama, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich trails the president by a double-digit margin, 49 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Obama also leads Gingrich by 11 points among independents.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/01/poll-shows-kain.php

Paul and Santorum are not mentioned in this poll. It's beginning to look much like the Presidential race around September 1, 2008 -- when the current President had no certainty  of winning the election but had very few ways in which to lose and many in which to win -- at least against Romney. Against others, the President looks set for a blowout win.

PPP will be polling Ohio (clear-but-narrow Obama win in 2008) and Missouri (bare Obama loss in 2008) this weekend.

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Wow! Three contradictory polls on Florida!

The old one is roughly the mean between two outliers, and the old one is probably right.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Ohio.

Ohio Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 39%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 38%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Rick Santorum................................................ 42%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_02012.pdf

Ohio is about R+2 in most Presidential elections. I don't know whether this will stick. In general add about 6% to the approval rating for an incumbent seeking re-election at the start of campaign season  and you get a fair estimate of the results in the next election.  At this point I would predict that President Obama is going to have a win somewhere between that of Clinton in 1996 and Eisenhower in 1956.

It is a bad idea for any Republican to carp about the auto bailout if he wants to win Ohio. That is one sure way to lose Ohio. Rick Santorum may have done less of that than the other three. 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

PPP: Obama competitive in Missouri

Missouri Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 42%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Rick Santorum................................................ 44%
Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 46%
Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 9%

Regionally-straddling Missouri is a legitimate swing state. I can't think of any state quite like it politically. The Republican nominee will need to win Missouri to have a chance, but as in 2008, winning Missouri will be far from enough.  If President Obama has a 50-50 chance of winning Missouri, then he projects to win somewhere between 380 and 390 electoral votes. 
 

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9)

"The economy is still the big issue that's going on nationally and in New Hampshire, and here we see the recent economic numbers in the last few months are starting to help," Smith said.

The poll of 527 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by landline and cellphone from Jan. 25 through Feb. 2. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Obama's improved fortunes are also reflected in head-to-head matchups against the Republican field in New Hampshire. In hypothetical matchups, Obama leads Mitt Romney by 10 points, Ron Paul by eight points, and trounces Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum by 25 and 21 points respectively.

http://www.wmur.com/politics/30373435/detail.html#ixzz1lNccCCXg

My comment: cheap shots at President Obama will not win. At this point I see little chance of any Republican nominee picking off any state that the President won by at least 5% in 2008 in 2012.

Survey USA, Georgia:

Romney 51-43, Gingrich 50-44 over Obama (nothing on Paul or Santorum). It changes little.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=774e93a3-2218-4c03-85da-37eeaa04047e

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

This election is slowly feeling more and more like a paddlin'.

[pbrower2a]

Siena College Research Institute
January 29 - February 1, 2012
807 New York State Registered Voters
MOE +/- 3.4%

...

Barack Obama

64% Favorable
34% Unfavorable

If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

63% Barack Obama
31% Mitt Romney

65% Barack Obama
29% Ron Paul

65% Barack Obama
28% Rick Santorum

68% Barack Obama
26% Newt Gingrich

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/SNY012912%20Crosstabs.pdf

President Obama won the state 62-37 in 2008 and looks to be in a max-out position.  If anyone wishes to ask under what circumstance the 'undecided' would break against the incumbent, then this is it -- when the incumbent has pushed the zone of the 'undecided' voters into the area of ideological opposition.

[pbrower2a]

CT, Yankee Institute/Rasmussen

EAST HARTFORD – President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50-37%, among Connecticut voters, and would defeat Newt Gingrich by an even larger margin, 56-35%, according to a new Yankee Institute poll. Gingrich is weighed down by an unfavorable image. More than twice as many voters think unfavorably of Gingrich (63%) as view him favorably (28%).

http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2012/02/voters-back-obama-murphy-in-new-poll/

No surprise here in view of recent polls of neighboring New York and near-neighboring New Hampshire. Nothing on Ron Paul or Rick Santorum here. .  

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac, February 2012:

For the first time in this election cycle, President Barack Obama inches ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the leading Republican candidate, 47 - 43 percent in Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. ...

"For the first time since Quinnipiac University began polling Virginia voters on the race, President Barack Obama holds a razor-thin lead over Gov. Mitt Romney," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The keys are the president's improved standing among independent voters and women in the Old Dominion." ...

The president also leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 51 - 37 percent, as he tops former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum 49 - 41 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul 47 - 40 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1700

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Overall, 53 percent of Illinois voters approve of the job Obama has done as president compared with 40 percent who disapprove. That's roughly on par with a similar poll conducted before the 2010 general election. ....
Outside the Chicago metropolitan area, 56 percent of voters disapprove of Obama's job performance.

 

Outside of Chicagoland President Obama isn't so popular. Geographic lesson here: Outside of Greater Chicago, Illinois is quite rural. Political lesson here: President Obama does badly in rural areas. President Obama is the definitive "urban" President and does adequately in suburbia. The only rural areas in which he does well are those with large minority populations.

Romney, the GOP front-runner, would lose to Obama in Illinois 56 percent to 35 percent, including taking 54 percent in the collar counties and winning among independents, 45 percent to 37 percent.

Against Gingrich, Obama would win his home state 58 percent to 30 percent, doing even better in the collar counties and among independents than against Romney.

http://www.wgntv.com/news/ct-met-0209-obama-poll-20120210,0,1888691.story

Nothing on Obama vs. Santorum or Obama vs. Paul, so nothing to change on the map.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/barack-obamas-approval-numbers-have-been-on-the-rise-nationally-as-of-late-and-the-same-trend-has-come-to-north-carolina-48.html#more

Obama leads the entire Republican field in the state, although most of the margins are close. He's up 47-46 on Mitt Romney, 48-46 on Rick Santorum, 50-45 on Newt Gingrich, and 47-41 on Ron Paul.

Rasmussen, Ohio (with a "likely voters" screen)

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 45% support to Romney’s 41%. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_presidential_election

(How can anyone predict what a "likely voter" is this early?)

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

[Rasmussen: Obama up 3% on Romney, up 1% on Santorum


(How can anyone predict what a "likely voter" is this early?)

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

And now, for the Great Mystery of the Ages -- how well will Rick Santorum do in California?

Obama: 60%  --  Romney: 31%

Obama: 61%  --  Santorum: 29%

Obama: 63%  --  Gingrich: 27%

Obama: 60%  --  Paul: 29%

Badly.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=39de218d-a465-4ca7-b7a4-752edc520da8

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Flawed polls (internals, one obsolete R and one D). No binary matchup other than Obama vs. Romney.  But it is Indiana, and beggars can't be choosers when it comes to Indiana polling, at least so far.    

INDIANAPOLIS — On Thursday, the Obama for America campaign opened a campaign office in Indiana, a state with a century-old love affair with the internal combustion engine. It is a state that any Republican will tell you is certain to return to the "red" Electoral College column next autumn.

That line of thought may be credible, with a Public Opinion Strategies Poll (R) in December showing President Barack Obama's approval in Indiana stood at 42 percent, and disapproval at 55 percent; wicked numbers for any incumbent.

So why is the Obama campaign be investing assets in a state they have no chance of winning?

Because some believe Indiana isn't a lost cause. An internal (D) poll for U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly's Democratic Senate campaign showed that Obama trailed probable (er, possible) Republican nominee Mitt Romney by just 4 percent. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in January revealed that 37 percent of Americans were more optimistic about the economy — the highest level in more than a year and a 7 percent jump from December. Democratic pollster Peter Hart explained, "The psychology about the economic conditions has switched. The old saying is 'a rising tide lifts all boats' — then clearly — this economic optimism has clearly lifted Obama's ratings."

http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/feb/12/obama-office-signals-optimism-as-recession/

The 42% approval rating for the President is obsolete; it is from December, and from before the time when the President went from about 45% approval to about 50%. I would guess that the approval rating for the President is in the 46-48% range in Indiana, which is good enough at this stage for a bare win for the President in Indiana.

At this point, Indiana is a possible Obama win in the general election. The state will be a difficult takeover for Republicans, but not as difficult as Ohio. If Indiana is this close at this stage, then President Obama has a chance at 370 or so electoral votes. Indiana going for President Obama in 2008 was not simply a one-time freak event. The state is drifting D in statewide elections.  Just don't treat Indiana as "sure R". A weak Republican nominee for President can lose Indiana.

I suspect that if Dick Lugar is the nominee he wins decisively unless he suddenly goes erratic. But if Dick Lugar is tea-bagged, then Indiana might be a D Senate pickup. For President Obama that would be worth more than the 11 electoral votes of Indiana.  

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Michigan

Michigan Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 52%
Disapprove...................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Obama vs. Gingrich     56-34
Obama vs. Ron Paul    52-34
Obama vs. Romney     54-38
Obama vs. Santorum  50-39

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_215.pdf
 

Quinnipiac, New York (state). No surprise.

New York State voters give President Obama a 50 - 46 percent job approval rating, unchanged from his 50 - 45 percent score December 21. Voters also say 50 - 45 percent that Obama deserves to be reelected.

Obama leads head-to-head matchups over possible Republican challengers:

    52 - 35 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney;
    57 - 31 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich;
    53 - 35 percent over former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1705

Quinnipiac, Ohio:

Obama vs. Gingrich 50-39
Obama vs. Ron Paul 46-41
Obama vs. Romney  46-44
Obama vs. Santorum 47-41

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1706

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, New Mexico. Safe Obama. Gingrich and R. Paul not shown.

Obama 55 - Romney 36
Obama 55 - Santorum 37

under 1% white
1-2% shade 20%
3-4% shade 30%
5-7% shade 40%
8-9% shade 60%
10% or greater shade 80%


Above 10% the distinctions are effectively moot in a winner-take-all statewide election.


Obama vs. Gingrich:



Obama vs. Ron Paul



 
Obama vs. Romney



Obama vs. Santorum