Dutch general election - September 2012

[Leftbehind]

I love how people in the UK get told that PR eliminates tactical voting.

Well it does a better job than any other system of eliminating it. The coalescing around PvdA and VVD (forgetting that with FPTP they'd have probably still be begrudgingly voting CDA) would be much more pronounced.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Plus I don't even know what the heck is tactical about those shifts since first place doesn't really mean anything in that case... Morons. (that's addressed to Dutch voters, not my fellow users here)

[Sibboleth]

I somehow doubt that would be your opinion if - as looked likely early on in the campaign - the SP had been one of the primary beneficiaries of such voter calculations

[Marcus Aurelius]

I would have taken the result, but still thought they were morons... :-P

[freek]

Today it was announced that VVD and PvdA have reached a preliminary agreement about forming a coalition. Rather quick, it will be the fastest formation of a coalition since the 1980s.

[Senator MaxQue]

Today it was announced that VVD and PvdA have reached a preliminary agreement about forming a coalition. Rather quick, it will be the fastest formation of a coalition since the 1980s.

Well, at least, they didn't do as their Belgian brothers.

[You kip if you want to...]

So the PvdA have screwed themselves over...

[Senator MaxQue]

So the PvdA have screwed themselves over...

Well, did they had another choice?
The left doesn't have a majority, neither the right without far-right.

[Sibboleth]

It's also a perfectly logical outcome from a democratic point of view and the two parties have worked together in the past.

[Insula Dei]

It's also a perfectly logical outcome from a democratic point of view and the two parties have worked together in the past.

^^^^^^^

Any other coalition would have been problematic.

I'd congratulate the Netherlands, but considering they're still stuck with the Dark Lord,...

[DC Al Fine]

About as reasonable an outcome one could have so long as Wilders is around.

[freek]

It's also a perfectly logical outcome from a democratic point of view and the two parties have worked together in the past.

^^^^^^^

Any other coalition would have been problematic.

Indeed. Other coalitions would have been monstrosities like PvdA/CDA/D66/SP.

I'd congratulate the Netherlands, but considering they're still stuck with the Dark Lord,...

And Joker Samsom of course:

[freek]

The coalition agreement is quite detailed, and is characterised by a combination of austerity measures,  but higher incomes will have to pay for it. In general it seems balanced.

The names of the ministers also have been announced more or less officially. There are some surprises.

Lodewijk Asscher (PvdA alderman in Amsterdam) will be deputy PM. Jeanine Hennis (VVD MP and former MEP) will be the first female minister of Defense.

[freek]

Some measures are more or less election related:

The provinces of Noord-Holland,  Utrecht and Flevoland will merge
The other 9 provinces will be stimulated to merge too,  to 4 new provinces.
Municipalities (currently on average 40,000 inhabitants)  will merge into new municipalities with at least 100,000 inhabitants.
Water boards (which are elected directly) will be elected simultaneously with the province elections.
Provincial and municipal councils will be decreased in size.

[freek]

And there they are.  Cabinet-Rutte II, sworn in this morning. Actually. they were sworn in twice, the ceremony had to be repeated, because NOS (public broadcasting) was still broadcasting commercials at the time.



In the latest poll, VVD managed to lose 11 (7%) seats in 1 week.  PvdA already lost their more or less artificial support to the SP in the weeks after the elections. VVD took a hit because of the coalition agreement, which included a health insurance reform. This would lead to considerably higher costs (€500/month or more) for people earning €50,000/year or more, i.e. the typical VVD voter.

The plans caused quite some uproar, it seemed that Rutte and other VVD hadn't realized its implications, and it led to panic in the VVD.

Latest Maurice de Hond/Peil.nl poll (compared with the September 12 elections)
PvdA 30 (-8)
VVD 27 (-14)
SP 22 (+7)
PVV 20 (+5)
D66 16 (+4)
CDA 15 (+2)
50PLUS 5 (+3)
CU 5 (nc)
PvdD 4 (+2)
SGP 3 (nc)
GL 3 (-1)

[freek]

Next elections (apart from early municipal elections):

March 5, 2014*: Municipal elections
June 5, 2014: European elections
March 4, 2015: Province elections
May 26, 2015: First Chamber elections (by the provincial legislatures)
March 8, 2017*: Second Chamber elections

* tentative dates, coincide with religious holidays, and will probably move 1 day (or 1 week).

[DC Al Fine]

Pretty major decrease in VVD/Labour #'s

[Marcus Aurelius]

Well when you win and make a "grand coalition", you have to make big compromises to the other side. So it's not really a surprise there. But this kind of poll isn't really useful to any prospect.