Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Smid]

I'm not sure its going to be that easy, there is no more ADQ its now CAQ, and i don't think the vote is 100% transferable (in every almost every instance this might eb the case). But by the looks of Granby we might have maybe two dozen or more ridings won by only a few hundred votes with 4 province-wide parties and in some maybe 5 or 6 parties. 

Yeah, it's by no means a prediction or a projection or anything, merely a statement of what happened within those boundaries last election (and since changed boundaries may well mean changed campaign strategy, it doesn't even imply who would actually have won the seat on those boundaries). It does, however, give a starting point when considering polling results. It's no different to looking at any other results from the last election. Indeed, the Beauce ridings didn't have any boundary changes, so it's no different to looking at Beauce Nord results from last election - not an indication of how any party will do there this election, but a useful starting point. Also handy for calculating swings after the election.

[Hatman]

I'll see what I can do... I have a bit on with work at the moment, too, so squeezing in what I can, when I can. I'll definitely give Alberta a shot, too. I think I have all the poll maps and poll results handy, so it's just a matter of adding and subtracting the relevant polls from the relevant districts.

Excellent!

[Senator MaxQue]

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

A strong minority then. Plus she leads in PMP for the first time in eons.

[RogueBeaver]

Doubtful they'll get it this year.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/09/01-4504260-loqlf-veut-plus-de-muscle-pour-proteger-le-francais.php


Pope is Catholic, etc.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/09/01-4503847-jean-charest-defend-les-policiers.php

More Plan Nord stuff. It's good economically but not something to run on in an election year.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/344618/plan-nord-la-grande-seduction-des-universites

[Hatman]

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

lol at CAQ

[Sibboleth]

CAQ is... cack?

[RogueBeaver]

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

lol at CAQ

Yeah. Charest needs them to do better if he wants a shot. Sort of like 1944 when the Bloc Populaire nearly denied Duplessis his comeback. Or more recently, the '07 ADQ surge which took enough nationalist votes to push the PQ into 3rd.

[RogueBeaver]

All I can say is :mad:

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120314/pq-claims-halal-meat-slams-against-quebec-values-120314/20120314?hub=TorontoNewHome

No goodies in this budget.

http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/economie/quebec/201203/14/01-4505323-budget-bachand-feu-vert-au-regime-de-retraite-pour-tous.php

[Peter the Lefty]

What is it with Frenchies and halal meat?  I mean, the Bloc (and thus, I assume, the PQ as well) love the seal hunt, so it must be some French thing.  And why is a (supposedly) social democratic party trying to emulate Marine Le Pen? 

[RogueBeaver]

Read up on the whole "reasonable accomodation" debate in 2006-7 that shaped the 2007 election. While mostly confined to the PQ, it is by no means exclusive. Not that long ago the National Assembly unanimously passed burka ban legislation despite there being (according to the major Muslim community organizations) less than 200 women in the province who wear them. I'll simplify a bit and say "defending traditional culture under the guise of secular social liberalism" summarizes most of it.

[Senator MaxQue]

I saw two burkas women yesterday and another one lived on the same floor than me last year.

So, I doubt than they are less than 200.

[RogueBeaver]

Can't say I disagree. This sort of gang-up disgusts but does not surprise me in the least. Where are the people like Levesque, Godin and Ryan when you need them?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/03/16/barbara-kay-quebec-values-means-no-blessings-for-chickens/

[RogueBeaver]

Good. She threw that asshole over the side.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120316/Pierre-Curzi-retire-politics-120316/

[Senator MaxQue]

CROP-La Presse, March Poll

PQ: 34%
Libs: 30%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 5%
Grn: 5%
ON: 1%

French vote is 41 PQ, 29 CAQ, 19 Libs.

Probably very near of a PQ majority.

[RogueBeaver]

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

[Senator MaxQue]

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

Must I remember than PQ got a majority in 1998 while losing popular vote?

[RogueBeaver]

4 point spread isn't enough for a majority.

Budget.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/21/01-4507639-en-route-vers-des-elections.php

Poll.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201203/20/01-4507629-marois-poursuit-sur-sa-lancee.php

Must I remember than PQ got a majority in 1998 while losing popular vote?

True. '94 was also a tie... so more accurately, 4 isn't a slam-dunk.

[Senator MaxQue]

A "new" (a week old) Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Sondage_politique_provinciale_Le_Devoir_7_avril_2012.pdf

PQ: 33% (-)
PLQ: 27% (-1)
CAQ: 22% (-2)
QS: 7% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+1)
ON: 1% (-1)

I suppose than all news about corruption hurted more Liberals this week.

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with Wells- Charest has to dissolve in the next 2-3 months, before Charbonneau gets underway in the fall. Probably the most anti-PLQ environment since 1976.

[mileslunn]

I think the massive student protests and the fact the public is generally on side with them could be the one thing holding Charest back.  Even though outside Quebec there is little sympathy for the students as even after the hikes, tuition will still be lower than most other provinces.  Still unlike English Canada, many believe post secondary education should ideally be free whereas in English Canada most accept students should bare some of the cost.  Off course corruption allegations could hurt more.  Likewise the fact the CAQ is out of the news is probably why they are sliding in the polls.  Another factor is also Harper's unpopularity in Quebec.  No doubt the PQ can use that as a reason to bolster their cause.

[Colbert]

sad to see ON and PI under the line of 1% on those elections :/

[RogueBeaver]

The public is losing sympathy as these strikes grow increasingly violent. Nor should Charest negotiate with a mob. Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

[Hatman]

Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

I agree. It should be 0 for everybody!

I personally admire the protests. I wish students in Ontario had the balls to do this. Maybe our tuition wouldn't be so high.

[Marokai]

The public is losing sympathy as these strikes grow increasingly violent. Nor should Charest negotiate with a mob. Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

I've never understood support for raising tuition rates just as a general idea. It's one of the most pointlessly vindictive policy proposals I can think of. Given that, I have a lot of respect for the determination of the student protestors in Quebec. They should be standing up to defend themselves against a pointless budget move that punishes people seeking an education in return to not really raising that much money.

That being said, though, why is this

Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

inherently desirable?