Israel opinion poll thread

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Great, now all you need to do is break Likud in half again and no party would top 15

[Vosem]

"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

For the purposes of averaging (I'm assuming by Arabs, they mean Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad), let's count that as 4 Hadash, 4 UAL-Ta'al, and 3 Balad, which is the most realistic breakdown of 11 Arab seats.

And assuming Aryeh Deri does return to politics, wouldn't he seek the leadership of Shas instead of making his own party? Seems to make more sense that way. Same with Lapid seeking Kadima's leadership -- Livni doesn't seem to be the most popular of leaders. Of course, I'm probably missing something significant from my vantage point on Lake Erie

[danny]

"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

For the purposes of averaging (I'm assuming by Arabs, they mean Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad), let's count that as 4 Hadash, 4 UAL-Ta'al, and 3 Balad, which is the most realistic breakdown of 11 Arab seats.

Since the poll includes purely hypothetical parties that have yet to be founded (if they ever will), I don't think this poll should be included in any averaging anyway.

[Vosem]

"Arabs" (that is how they wrote it): 11

For the purposes of averaging (I'm assuming by Arabs, they mean Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad), let's count that as 4 Hadash, 4 UAL-Ta'al, and 3 Balad, which is the most realistic breakdown of 11 Arab seats.

Since the poll includes purely hypothetical parties that have yet to be founded (if they ever will), I don't this poll should be included in any averaging anyway.

D'oh! But I do still have a question...

And assuming Aryeh Deri does return to politics, wouldn't he seek the leadership of Shas instead of making his own party? Seems to make more sense that way. Same with Lapid seeking Kadima's leadership -- Livni doesn't seem to be the most popular of leaders. Of course, I'm probably missing something significant from my vantage point on Lake Erie

[danny]

And assuming Aryeh Deri does return to politics, wouldn't he seek the leadership of Shas instead of making his own party? Seems to make more sense that way. Same with Lapid seeking Kadima's leadership -- Livni doesn't seem to be the most popular of leaders. Of course, I'm probably missing something significant from my vantage point on Lake Erie

The thing about Shas is that there are no primaries, It's up to Ovadia Yosef, and as far as I know, he still supports Yishai. and if Deri knows that he can't be the leader of shas than it makes sense to bypass it and start his own party.

As for Lapid, It's possible, but I don't know if he has any interest in Kadima, he may want to recreate Shinui instead, and I don't think Livni/Mofaz (whom ever wins the primary) will want to give up their spot. Of course, right now he is a news anchor so he can't say what he wants to do.

[Speaker Dereich]

New poll from Globes:

Likud: 31
Kadima: 19
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 11
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3

And I have added the averaging of nickjbor to the first post.

What's with Kadima reclaiming the 2nd place?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Margin of Error?

[danny]

New poll from Globes:

Likud: 31
Kadima: 19
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 11
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3

And I have added the averaging of nickjbor to the first post.

What's with Kadima reclaiming the 2nd place?

I assume it has to do with the post primary bounce that has now somewhat faded.

[danny]

New poll conducted on 3/1/12:
Likud: 38
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Kadima: 15
Labour: 13
Shas: 8
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 6
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 3
"Arabs":10

Right-Religious:76
Others: 44

This is the most right friendly poll I have seen lately.

[danny]

But the same poll looks quite different with Lapid and Deri:
Likud: 25
Lapid: 20
Deri: 12
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Kadima: 9
Labour: 9
Shas: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Jewish Home: 4
National Union: 3
"Arabs": 10

[danny]

A lot less hypothetical now, Lapid has resigned his journalist job, presumably to enter politics.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

One step closer to no party winning more than 10 seats!

[danny]

Polls seem to be all over the place right now.

Here is another one:

Likud: 30
Lapid: 16
Kadima: 14
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
National Union + Jewish home: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz:4
"Arab parties": 10
Independence: 0 (though I doubt they run as an independent party)

[Sibboleth]

Maybe they use dice?

[republicanism]

Never heard of Lapid, wiki doesn't tell me anything either. What kind of party is this going to be?

[RodPresident]

He's host of a very popular Israel's talk show and a sucessful writer. His father Tomy Lapid (died in 2008) led liberal-secularist Shinui into a 3rd place in 2003 elections, after a Labour weak showing. He have a good appeal among liberal and urban people that would go to Yachimovich and can attract centrist Kadimists too. Aryeh Deri is a former Shas leader who was convicted for receiving bribery, but he retains a great amount of support. Noah Shalit (Gilad's father) plans to run in Labour list.

[danny]

Lapid's decision has caused a flood of polls.
Here is another:

Kadima headed by Livni

Likud: 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Kadima: 13
Labour: 13
Lapid: 11
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
Deri: 5
Meretz: 4
Jewish Home: 4
National Union: 2
Greens: 2
Arab Parties: 11

Kadima headed by Mofaz

Likud 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Lapid: 14
Labour: 14
Kadima: 8
Shas: 6
Deri: 5
Meretz: 4

Kadima headed by Lapid

Kadima: 29
Likud: 27
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Labour: 13

[Sibboleth]

Mofaz is not very popular then?

[danny]

Mofaz is not very popular then?

Not with the general public, but much more so with Kadima primary voters, so there is a strong possibility that he will head Kadima anyway.

[danny]

And another one:

Likud: 27
Labour: 18
Kadima: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Lapid: 12

Who do you think is more suitable to be prime minister:

Bibi: 55%
Livni: 23.5%

Bibi: 57.7%
Lapid: 19.7%

Bibi: 60.5%
Mofaz: 9.6% (lol)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Averaging
Likud - 28
Labour - 14
Y Beit - 14
Kadima - 14
Lapid - 13

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 31
Lapid: 20
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Labour: 11
Shas: 9
Kadima: 8
Jewish Home: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
National Union: 3
Arab parties: 11

[danny]

From the above poll:

Do you support raising the election threshold to 5%?

yes 65%
no 22%
no opinion 13%

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What would 5% be in terms of seats? 6? So parties with less would lose.

"Oddly" all Arab parties would lose unless they ran a single united list.

[danny]

What would 5% be in terms of seats? 6? So parties with less would lose.

"Oddly" all Arab parties would lose unless they ran a single united list.

You're right, but just because most people support it doesn't mean it's happening any time soon. I haven't heard of any politician trying to seriously pass something like this.