Israel opinion poll thread

[Senator Clarence]

It is a testament to your nations democracy that an Islamist and a Baathist party are allowed to flourish...

Thank you for your explanation

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Danny, which of the parties do you support in Israel.


I'm Jewish, and many of my relatives live in Israel (Haifa region  and Tel Aviv metro mostly.)

My Israeli Relatives are mainly Likud supporters, with a few Labour here, and there.

Here in the States, me and my father strongly back Likud. My Dad also likes Yisrael Beitenu, unlike me. However, I do like Danny Avalon a lot from Yisrael Beitenu.

Of course, I love Netanyahu

[danny]

I'm not a member of any party, but in the last election I voted for Likud.

I don't really like Netanyahu, I'm usually to his right, and I think there are much better people in Likud than him but he's still better than anyone from Kadima and Labour, although I could possibly vote for Yisrael Beitenu.

BTW, why would you like Ayalon but not his party? Other than his good English there isn't much difference between himself and the rest of the party.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

I'm not a member of any party, but in the last election I voted for Likud.

I don't really like Netanyahu, I'm usually to his right, and I think there are much better people in Likud than him but he's still better than anyone from Kadima and Labour, although I could possibly vote for Yisrael Beitenu.

BTW, why would you like Ayalon but not his party? Other than his good English there isn't much difference between himself and the rest of the party.

Well, I mainly have an issue with Lieberman and the Yisrael Official (Sofa Landver) who released those Anti-American Jew ad's. I feel as if Lieberman is corrupt, and really just to extreme for me on a lot of issues. But, mainly it's that Ad campaign that pissed me off.

But,  my opinions aside, I'm happy that Likud and Yisrael Beitenu made the coalition back in 2009

[danny]

I'm not a member of any party, but in the last election I voted for Likud.

I don't really like Netanyahu, I'm usually to his right, and I think there are much better people in Likud than him but he's still better than anyone from Kadima and Labour, although I could possibly vote for Yisrael Beitenu.

BTW, why would you like Ayalon but not his party? Other than his good English there isn't much difference between himself and the rest of the party.

Well, I mainly have an issue with Lieberman and the Yisrael Official (Sofa Landver) who released those Anti-American Jew ad's. I feel as if Lieberman is corrupt, and really just to extreme for me on a lot of issues. But, mainly it's that Ad campaign that pissed me off.

But,  my opinions aside, I'm happy that Likud and Yisrael Beitenu made the coalition back in 2009

That ad really wasn't meant as anti-American Jew, it was supposed to encourage Jews to make Aliyah. And the rumors about Liebermans corruption never seem to amount to much.

[Frodo]

Wouldn't a Likud-only government actually be good news for advancing the peace process with the Palestinians as they would have less need to appease the settler bloc as represented by the third parties they are currently in office with? 

[danny]

Wouldn't a Likud-only government actually be good news for advancing the peace process with the Palestinians as they would have less need to appease the settler bloc as represented by the third parties they are currently in office with? 

The coalition parties are not more supportive of the settlers than Likud is in general other than the irrelevant Jewish Home. If Likud formed a government by itself (realistically impossible) than there would be many more Likud members to oppose threats to the settlements. if Netanyahu would want to harm the settlements he would probably need to add parties to Likud's left to the coalition.

[danny]

new poll done following the Kadima primaries:

Likud: 32
Labour: 15
Kadima: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Lapid: 9
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Jewish Home-National Union: 5
Meretz: 5
Independence: 0
Arab Parties: 11

[danny]

And one from Yediot:

Likud: 29
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Lapid: 12
Shas: 8
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz: 3
Jewish Home: 2
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab parties: 11

How did Mofaz's election affect your chance of voting for Kadima?
no change: 63%
lowered them: 15%
raised them: 13%

Who is more suitable to be prime minister?
Netanyahu: 54%
Mofaz: 16%

[danny]

And now channel 2:
Likud: 32
Labour: 16
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Lapid: 12
Kadima: 10
Shas: 7
National Union: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
Balad: 3
Raam-Taal: 3
Independence: 0

Which of these two is more suitable to be prime minister?
Netanyahu: 52%
Mofaz: 12%

Is Kadima an alternative to Likud as a ruling party?
yes: 24%
no: 64%

[ag]

So, all these polls seem to show Labor to be the likely next biggest opposition party, not Kadima, so the Mofaz vs. Netaniyahu question becomes irrelevant.

Also, all these polls are really good for Shas - unless Kadima is wooed back into a rightwing government, Shas is the one religious party that's going to be indispensible to form it. I think, I can forecast certain budgetary appropriations ))

[danny]

Considering Mofaz wanted to enter the current coalition I don't think there will be much trouble for Kadima to enter the next one. Kadima should also be fine with being in coalition with Shas so a Likud+Kadima+Yisrael Beitenu+Shas+UTJ coalition is quite likely. It's also possible to replace Shas and UTJ with Lapid but I don't trust Israeli politicians with excluding the haredim.

[danny]

Another from Globes:
Likud: 29
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Kadima: 15
Labour: 12
Lapid: 9
Shas: 9
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz:4
Jewish Home:3
Arab parties: 11

[ModerateCoward]

Has labour ever won a government in Israel?

[Frodo]

Has labour ever won a government in Israel?

Not since Ehud Barak was prime minister.  You can thank Yasser Arafat and his scuttling of the peace process for the straits the Labour Party is in now.   

[Sibboleth]

Has labour ever won a government in Israel?

Is that an April Fool question?

[ag]

Has labour ever won a government in Israel?

Is it a joke?

Labor was continuously in power in Israel from its creation (1948) till 1977. Back then it was one of those eternal governing parties, like the LDP in Japan and INC in India.

Since then, Israel has had Labor PM in 1984-86 (as part of a grand coalition), 1992-1996 and 1999-2001.

[ag]

Considering Mofaz wanted to enter the current coalition I don't think there will be much trouble for Kadima to enter the next one. Kadima should also be fine with being in coalition with Shas so a Likud+Kadima+Yisrael Beitenu+Shas+UTJ coalition is quite likely. It's also possible to replace Shas and UTJ with Lapid but I don't trust Israeli politicians with excluding the haredim.

Well, of course, the natural home of Kadima is Likud. I agree, it is quite likely they'd join a right-wing gov't - in fact, it is quite likely they'd fold back into Likud by the end of the Knesset in which they do it. There, of course, will be some (likely minor) defections to Labor in the process and the normalcy will be restored )

Israeli politicians will not exclude the haredim - for a reason. Those polls you cite give the haredim, what 20-23 seats almost consistently, w/ another 10-13 going to the Arabs+Hadash. That's 30-36 seats - very likely over a quarter of the total. Labor + Meretz are unlikely to drop much below 18 or 20 - and Labor is not going into a right-wing coalition again, given what it did to them last time. So, to form an entirely non-haredi government, it would have to be a narrow coalition, in which you'd have to rely on the loyalty of the relatively leftyish Kadima members and the likely not very predictable Lapidniks (even if they don't call them that, it sounds like a good word:) ). To be sure that it would hold for a full term, it would have to give something to these people to dissuade them from splitting off in strange directions: likely either undertake a massive secular reform agenda (making it harder to get the haredim back if anything happens), or doing something for peace (which is anathema to most of the rest of the coalition).

But even if it turns out that the Kadima holds whole and Lapidniks are good secular right-wingers, longer term it is a loosing strategy. The Arabs and the haredim will be growing - in another generation it is very likely they together will have over 40 seats as a matter of routine.  Labor will recover somewhat once Kadima is out of the way - in any case, Israel has enough leftists to reliably get 20 seats between Labor and Meretz if there is no other party claiming to be part of the Zionist left. If you want a right-wing government, you'll have to deal w/ the haredim: they are the future of any Jewish Democratic State ) In another 30 years they will be nominating the PM of their own )

[danny]

Now that the elections are likely to happen sometime between August and October there should be more polls coming.
Here is one from Yediot:

Likud: 30
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 11
There is a Future (the new name for Lapid's party): 11
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Deri: 3
National Union: 3
Jewish Home: 2
Independence: 0
Arab parties:11

[danny]

And another:

Likud: 31
Labour: 17
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
There Is A Future: 12
Kadima: 10
Shas: 8
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 4
National Union: 4
Jewish Home: 2
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab parties: 11

The election will probably be on the September 4.

[Vosem]

Could you explain why Netanyahu would want an early election? I'm not sure why not just wait until early 2013, when it was supposed to be held.

[True Federalist]

Could you explain why Netanyahu would want an early election? I'm not sure why not just wait until early 2013, when it was supposed to be held.

If Israel were to attack Iran, there's probably little upside for Netanyahu and the potential for considerable downside.  Having the election sooner frees him to do what he thinks the situation calls for without having to worry about the political risks.

[danny]

Could you explain why Netanyahu would want an early election? I'm not sure why not just wait until early 2013, when it was supposed to be held.

The closer you get to an election the less incentive parties have to stay in it and the more incentive to leave to position themselves for the elections.

The current problem is with the new law replacing the Tal law (dealing with religious exemptions from the army) Yisrael beitenu decided to propose their own law and threatened to leave the coalition if it didn't pass, but if Netanyahu would agree than the Haredi parties would have left themselves. In either case the government would have fallen. So Netanyahu could either try to prolong the government as much as possible but have it fall apart soon anyway, or preempt this and decide on an election date himself. The latter makes him look stronger and more competent coming into the elections.

While it might not really be Netanyahu's true wish to have an early election, it's still a good time for him. he is doing well in the polls and he would have a lot leverage in the negotiation for the new coalition, since all the parties from Labour rightwards are realistic potential coalition partners (excluding possibly the National Union).

[Senator Clarence]

Wow- Kadima has fallen... what is "There Is A Future"? I've tried to look it up...

[Vosem]

Wow- Kadima has fallen... what is "There Is A Future"? I've tried to look it up...

It's known colloquially in Hebrew as 'Atid' -- it's English Wikipedia article is pathetic, but here's a link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atid_(political_party)