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Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 19157 times)
redcommander
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« Reply #450 on: April 23, 2012, 10:27:38 pm »
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I will take solace in Sherman losing his seat tonight after the disgusting strategic voting.
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Smid
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« Reply #451 on: April 23, 2012, 10:34:21 pm »
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Only 12 polls remaining to be counted in Fort Mac-Wood Buffalo and incumbent WRP (floor-crosser) is trailing by ~200 votes.

About half the polls counted in C-Glenmore, and the incumbent WRP (floor-crosser) is trailing by a substantial amount.
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Senator MaxQue
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« Reply #452 on: April 23, 2012, 10:35:08 pm »
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Quote from: redcommander on April 23, 2012, 10:27:38 pm
I will take solace in Sherman losing his seat tonight after the disgusting strategic voting.

lol.

There was no way than Wildrose could win with 34%, so strategical voting changed nothing.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #453 on: April 23, 2012, 10:36:26 pm »
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I think I'm at 43/87 correct. Just a few more WRP seats and I can get over 50%.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #454 on: April 23, 2012, 10:39:24 pm »
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Ted Morton has been defeated, so interesting the furthest right PC member has lost.  I often thought he would defect to the Wild Rose if they won and he won his seat.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #455 on: April 23, 2012, 10:49:18 pm »
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C'mon WRP. One more seat. I don't want a failing grade!
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #456 on: April 23, 2012, 10:56:13 pm »
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LOL Paul Hinman is losing.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #457 on: April 23, 2012, 11:02:54 pm »
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Battle River and Cold Lake swing back to WRP (both seats I projected would be close)
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Hatman
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« Reply #458 on: April 23, 2012, 11:03:48 pm »
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Battle River back to PC.
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Hatman
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« Reply #459 on: April 23, 2012, 11:07:03 pm »
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Bonnyville-Cold Lake back to PC
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Meeker
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« Reply #460 on: April 23, 2012, 11:10:16 pm »
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The WRP should probably just shut down.
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Smid
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« Reply #461 on: April 23, 2012, 11:15:38 pm »
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Elections Alberta has their page working: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

And Senator-in-Waiting results: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsSNE.htm
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #462 on: April 23, 2012, 11:22:24 pm »
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It seems like Danielle Smith didn't have a concession speech written and Alison Redford didn't have a victory speech either.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #463 on: April 23, 2012, 11:30:04 pm »
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Quote from: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 23, 2012, 11:22:24 pm
It seems like Danielle Smith didn't have a concession speech written and Alison Redford didn't have a victory speech either.

True enough, although probably best to just make an adhoc one anyways as polls have in many cases been wrong.  Its not impossible to make a good adhoc one, in fact good speakers can make one on the spot.
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ModerateCoward
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« Reply #464 on: April 23, 2012, 11:35:02 pm »
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Not the most disappointing result(that would have been Wildrose majority), but the second most disappointing result.
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asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
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« Reply #465 on: April 23, 2012, 11:39:00 pm »
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Sherman is ahead by six votes.
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Quote from: Averroës Nix on October 18, 2012, 07:59:32 pm
Professor Nathan: A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights. Can you really trust him?

Quote from: Joe Republic on April 25, 2013, 03:29:18 pm
It's like one minute you're preaching from the pulpit at some exceedingly dull church; the next you're a giving a Womens' Studies lecture at Berkeley.
Novelty
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« Reply #466 on: April 23, 2012, 11:49:47 pm »
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Hatman, will you be posting an analysis about how you and most everyone else got the results wrong?
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #467 on: April 23, 2012, 11:55:38 pm »
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Quote from: Novelty on April 23, 2012, 11:49:47 pm
Hatman, will you be posting an analysis about how you and most everyone else got the results wrong?

Yup. I am doubly bad, as my numbers were the worst.

Anyways, I have a results page that I've updating: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/
I will update the map as each riding with 100% of the polls reporting come in.
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Meeker
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« Reply #468 on: April 23, 2012, 11:56:57 pm »
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Is there really much more to say other than at the last minute everyone got cold feet?

EDIT: Well I guess it's possible all the polls had turnout models wildly off. Actually that seems pretty reasonable.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2012, 12:01:59 am by Meeker »Logged
Smid
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« Reply #469 on: April 24, 2012, 12:04:04 am »
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PC probably had the greater voter database and therefore a more coordinated GOTV campaign.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #470 on: April 24, 2012, 12:04:55 am »
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Oops, it's here: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-provincial-election.html

I've modeled my chart similarly to the one on this site Smiley
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Novelty
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« Reply #471 on: April 24, 2012, 12:07:55 am »
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So do they continue counting throughout the night?  Or will they call it a day and resume counting tomorrow?
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Smid
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« Reply #472 on: April 24, 2012, 12:09:22 am »
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Either St Albert is over-populated following the redistribution, or there is incredible turnout up there (or both).
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redcommander
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« Reply #473 on: April 24, 2012, 12:10:03 am »
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You know I hate to point out the flaws with FPTP, but the WRP got screwed over majorly by it. The PC shouldn't have gotten 62 seats with 44% of the vote.
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Hatman
EarlAW
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« Reply #474 on: April 24, 2012, 12:11:54 am »
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Quote from: redcommander on April 24, 2012, 12:10:03 am
You know I hate to point out the flaws with FPTP, but the WRP got screwed over majorly by it. The PC shouldn't have gotten 62 seats with 44% of the vote.

Well, I predicted in the inverse :/

To answer your other question, they should continue counting. It's only 11:11 in Alberta
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